On Historical Methods, or Trying Not to Lose So Much

Historical methods are typically used to determine the 100-year seastates used in traditional design practice. In these methods, one fits a probability distribution to the historical record of Hs and wind speed. With the development of more rational design standards, interest has shifted to rare events-with annual exceedence probabilities of 10−4 or lower. If one uses historical methods to determine the seastates associated with these probabilities, one typically encounters high uncertainties as a result of limited sample size and modeling uncertainty associated with the choice of distribution shape. This paper presents the results from Phase-I of an industry-sponsored project aimed at the development of more reliable methods for the calculation of seastates (particularly Hs) associated with rare probabilities. These methods construct deductive (or physically based) probabilistic models of the storm characteristics and their effects, and then use these models (together with the laws of probability theory) to calculate the probabilities of rare seastates. The objective of this first (exploratory) phase was to develop and apply a deductive model for hurricanes affecting platform sites in the western Gulf of Mexico, compare the predictions of this model to those of the historical approach, investigate and compare the uncertainties in both approaches, and explore other benefits of using the deductive method. For the sake of efficiency and internal consistency, a simple parametric-hindcast method was used for both the deductive and historical approaches. Results from this project indicate that the deductive and historical methods predict identical values of Hs for annual exceedence probabilities of 10−2 per year. For lower probabilities (particularly for 10−4), the predictions by the deductive method are within the range of predictions by the historical method using different assumptions about distribution shape. The statistical uncertainty of the deductive method is comparable to that of the historical method (if the latter uses pooled data coming from the entire static region). If no pooling is performed with the historical method, the uncertainty in the deductive method is lower. In addition, the deductive method shows less sensitivity to distribution-shape assumptions. This paper also summarizes ongoing efforts to adapt the deductive approach to extra-tropical storms in the North Sea — which have more complicated wind fields than hurricanes — and to the entire Gulf of Mexico — with the associated geographical variation in storm rate and characteristics.

Research Summary The last decade has witnessed an increasing interest in the use of history and historical research methods in strategy research. We discuss how and why history and historical research methods can enrich theoretical explanations of strategy phenomena. In addition, we introduce the notions of “history‐informed strategy research,” distinguishing between the dimensions of “history to theory” and “history in theory” and discussing various under‐utilized methods that may further work on history‐informed strategy research. We then discuss how contemporary research contributes to history‐informed research within the strategy field, examine key methodological and empirical challenges associated with such research, and develop an agenda for future research. Managerial Summary Firms are increasingly making use of their historical past as they reflect on their identities and how these can be used strategically. At the same time, strategy researchers are paying increasing to the use of historical research methods, as well as to how firms use history strategically. We take stock on the role of history in strategy research, outline the key strategic issues that can be informed by a historical way of doing research, discuss the available historical methods, and offer suggestions for future research in the history/strategy intersection.

Investment is a commitment of the placement of the data on an object or a few investments with expectations will benefit in the future. The main motive is to seek investment gain or profit in a certain amount, but behind the good side there is one side that can harm or the risk of, for it required a measurement of risk where methods of value at risk (VaR) is very popular is widely used by the financial industry worldwide. Three main method on calculation of VaR historical method, parametric method and Monte Carlo method. So, the selected calculation of VaR GARCH-M model with historical simulation method on Bank Mandiri Tbk closing stock in 2005-2010. This research aims to know the calculation of VaR model GARCH-M through the historical method and implementation model GARCH-M on the computation of VaR via simulation on closing stock Bank Mandiri Tbk. Historical method approach is a model calculation of VaR is determined by the value of the past (historical) or return generated by simulation (repetition) of data used. The measures undertaken that explains the historical simulation method VaR models in the estimation of GARCH-M with a normal distribution, then apply GARCH-M in case of loss obtained by investors after investing with the help of Minitab software, E-views software and Matlab software.

Just as the present can be understood by examining the past, the use of historical research methods can help nurses to understand the present to influence the future. This text emphasises how this approach to nursing research can provide a contextual framework from which nurses can consider their own practice.

The purpose of the article is to study the activities of Colonel I. G. Starinov and his interaction with state secu-rity bodies aimed at forming a strategy and tactics of sabotage work. It is stressed that his methods of work became a benchmark for carrying out special actions to destroy the critical infrastructure of the enemy and elimi-nate the leaders of enemy military and administrative structures. A wide range of historical research methods, such as comparative and historical methods, comparative meth-ods and others are used. Starinov' s activity is consid-ered as a reflection of the epoch in the military history of Russia. During his life, Starinov was called «the genius of the explosion», «the god of sabotage», «the grandfather of the Russian special forces». Being on duty, at various stages of his career, I. G. Starinov was in close coopera-tion with the security bodies: the OGPU, the NKVD, the MGB and the KGB. This cooperation took place during his work on the training of sabotage personnel in the 1930s in the Ukrainian Military District, and during his business trip to Spain. During the Great Patriotic War, I. G. Starinov, together with NKVD officers, trained CHEKA officers for sabotage and partisan work. In the postwar period I. G. Starinov worked again with KGB officers on a teaching job. As a result, the authors come to the conclusion that the activity of I. G. Starinov became the basis for the formation of special services in Soviet Russia. The au-thors emphasize that Starinov’ s methods of work in the field of sabotage are so perfect that they are of great importance to the present day, and are still in practical use by modern state security bodies and the Armed Forces of Russia.

A field study was conducted to calculate the functional lower developmental threshold and cumulative required degree-days for first emergence of adult Apthona nigriscutis Foudras, a classical biological control agent of the exotic weed leafy spurge Euphorbia esula L. The study was conducted in Wyoming, Montana, and Minnesota from 1991 through 1999 and made use of the computer program, CALFUN (version 2.0), to estimate the thresholds and required degree-days. Five different methods were used to calculate degree-days, and two kinds of estimates (mean and median) were made for functional lower developmental threshold and required degree-days. In all, 10 phenology models were developed. When we tested these for their accuracy in predicting adult A. nigriscutis first emergence, those that used the historical or sine wave methods for calculating degree-days, and those that used median functional lower developmental thresholds and required degree-days, provided the best predictions. Based on these findings, we suggest using the median functional lower developmental threshold from the historical (−2.56°C) or sine wave (0.14°C) methods to calculate degree-days. Then, when cumulative degree-days approach 1,189.2°C (historical method) or 898.5°C (sine wave method), the onset of adult A. nigriscutis emergence should be imminent. A computer program was written for use by spurge managers so they can easily determine when first emergence of adult A. nigriscutis is likely to begin.

The colonisation of Trimurjo that occurred in 1935-1942 was an initiation of the Dutch Colonial to implement ethical politics, although in reality it was solely to benefit the Dutch who at that time were experiencing a post-world war crisis. This research aims to explore the local history of Trimurjo colonisation in 1935-1942. In order for the research to be well structured and fulfil the writing rules, the author uses the historical research method. This historical method is a tool to identify a historical event in which it contains systematic principles and rules, there are four stages in the historical research method, among others, heuristics, criticism, interpretation, and historiography. These stages are closely related and cannot be separated, so that the results of the research have suitability and can be accounted for. The result of this research is evidence of colonisation in Trimurjo by Dutch colonials whose aim was to open agricultural land and exploit natural resources. This can be seen from the various relics that still exist today in the form of a steel bridge located in Batang Hari Ogan Village, Agroguruh Dam, and sluice gates that still stand firm and function properly until now. The existence of these relics can prove that during the Dutch government had colonised Trimurjo in 1935. Trimurjo colonisation is one of the local histories that is important to learn so that the values in it are not lost in time.

In this chapter, the authors explore the contribution that historical methods and perspectives can offer to the study of corporate governance. We first consider how the corporate governance literature has engaged with history. We then outline what historical methods are, what it is to think historically and why history matters to an understanding of corporate governance as indeed to all areas of business and management. This is followed by a discussion of how understanding has evolved between history and business and management studies. We then consider what historical perspectives and methods have offered to the study of corporate governance in a variety of organisational settings and environments over time and how history might contribute to posing new sets of questions and developing methods and analytical frameworks for the field.

Case studies have long been used in marketing programs as a way to provide real-world context to business issues and to structure analysis and decision making. In a similar fashion, advocates of the teaching of business/marketing history believe that it provides a contextual background for the marketing student. This article first demonstrates that the historical method is similar to and compatible with the case method. It is then shown that the historical method strengthens analytical skills not used in the case method. Finally, this article further describes an innovative student assignment/project that requires the use of the historical research method.

Down with This Sort of Thing: Seth Heringer and the End of the Historical-Critical Method

Ernst Troeltsch and Heikki Räisänen have raised significant challenges to the way New Testament theology handles the relation of history and theology. Troeltsch pushed Christian scholars to apply the historical method's three principles of criticism, analogy and correlation consistently to their work and thus embrace empiricism. Räisänen continues this trajectory by splitting New Testament theology into its descriptive and reflective tasks, resulting in a programme which questions the unity of the canon, the appropriateness of prescription and the role of church authority in New Testament theology. With these challenges in mind, this article examines four recent New Testament theologies to see how they use the historical method. It finds that these works exhibit different ad hoc ways of using the historical method, picking it up and setting it down at will. Peter Balla accepts New Testament theology as descriptive and historical while claiming it can also be theological by studying the content in the New Testament. Despite this embrace of the historical method, Balla remains uncomfortable with bare empiricism and pushes back on its naturalism. Georg Strecker splits the world into two: one part which can be investigated by the historical method and another part which lies outside its normal subject matter. The result is that he uses the historical method everywhere except where his main theological concern lies – Jesus’ resurrection. I. Howard Marshall similarly holds the historical method to be necessary for New Testament theology but largely ignores it in light of narrative-theological concerns. Frank Matera takes a purposefully literary approach to New Testament theology and generally ignores the historical method. He does invoke it, however, when the text becomes difficult and alternative readings must be found. The methodological inconsistency demonstrated by these New Testament theologies leads the article to conclude that this type of historical New Testament theology is a failed enterprise. A theological understanding of history based on work by Murray Rae is then proposed as an alternative which allows for methodological consistency in synthetic work on the New Testament.

<p><em>This research aims to describe and answer the following questions; What is the image of the people of Istanbul City in the 16th Century AD?, How did coffee shops develop in the City of Istanbul?, and what was the coffee consumption of the people of Istanbul City in the 16th-18th Century AD? To answer this question the author uses historical research methods. The historical method is carried out systematically and objectively through several stages; topic selection, heuristics, historical criticism, interpretation and historiography. The approach used is a sociological approach. This research concludes that amidst the progress of the city of Istanbul in the 16th century AD, people had many choices of activities to fill their free time. Various entertainment venues are present, the most important of which is the presence of coffee shops. In 1554 AD, the first coffee shop opened in the Tahtakale District. The ulama had issued a haram fatwa against coffee shops, but coffee shops continued to open, even the Janissaries got involved in the coffee shop business in the 18th century AD. Ottoman Turkish coffee was made by roasting, then cooling, grinding, brewing, pouring into a teapot, and serving. in the cup. What's interesting is that coffee is a part of proposal or wedding ceremonies, and coffee shops are an important place to socialize.</em></p>

Relevance. The Ukrainian national costume recognized by all domestic researchers as a nation code has gained a new life in many artistic branches. Thanks to its skillful use in cinema and theater arts there were created screen images that have not lost their relevance to this day. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to study the role and place of traditions of the Ukrainian folk costume in the national cinematography of the 20th century. We chose staged movies that appeared on screens at different decades as a source for studying the said issue. To perform the set goal, we needed historical and art methods. The most important among historical methods are historical-biographical and historical-comparative methods. They allowed to highlight a number of the most important costume designers who developed patterns for the first domestic movies, forming national school of stage apparel. The historicalcomparative method allowed to determine the main trends in the approaches to the production of national costumes for movies in different historical periods. The art toolkit allowed separately to reveal artistic features of costumes in every chosen movie. Such approach used in the study determined the novelty of the article, both in terms of topic and methods. Conclusions. The studied corpus of domestic movies, mostly historical ones, allowed to make several important conclusions: well-known Ukrainian artists came into the cinema mainly from theater industry, having received their professional experience there. Simultaneously they all went through the study of traditional clothes, its architectonics and coloristics, as well as folk life in general in different ways. During the entire period of development of domestic cinematography, the national costume did not lose its relevance and became a face of historical, and later “poetic” cinema.

Regional crime is a branch of criminological research that studies the specifics of crime caused by the specific geographical, demographic, economic, historical, socio-cultural and other conditions of individual territories. The purpose of this study is to characterise the methods of studying regional crime, to show the specifics of their application in the study of regional crime. The specificity of regional studies is manifested in the complex study of territorial features of crime, as well as the existing demographic, economic, social, cultural, organisational, national, environmental, legal and other conditions of the region that contribute to the development of criminogenic processes. General scientific methods of cognition of regional crime are dialectical, historical and systemic methods. The historical method provides the identification of regularities of regional crime development in the historical section, in motion, for which it is necessary to study socio-economic and criminological indicators of crime in the region for quite a long time. The use of the system method allows us to study crime in interrelation with the phenomena and processes occurring in the region, having specificity; as well as the impact of crime on regional processes. The comparative method is the basis for identifying the territorial characteristics of crime. The comparative method reveals the peculiarities of the state, structure and dynamics of crime in a particular territory, the specifics of its causal complex, differences in the personal characteristics of criminals, the conditions of their formation and life activity. Among private methods of studying regional crime, in addition to traditional statistical and sociological methods, methods of correlation and cluster analysis are used. The peculiarity of the use of statistical method in regional studies is that the level and structure of crime are analysed in comparison with other regions, as well as the average values for the country, federal district, republic, krai, oblast. In such a study, attention should be paid to the objectivity of data on the population of the region. The use of correlation analysis in the study of regional crime is carried out to establish the relationship between crime indicators and individual factors affecting the criminogenic situation in the region. Cluster analysis makes it possible to divide regions into groups with a certain socio-criminological situation according to certain characteristics.

Impact of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients’ New Bayesian Method on Estimating Center Effects and Flagging of Centers as Worse Than Expected