On China - US Bilateral Trade Relationship Based on Time - Series Analysis

We argue that there exists complementarity relationship between supply mode of Cross Border Supply and Commercial Presence of trade in service. By using US bilateral service trade data and gravity equation, we try to quantify these effects. In addition, we further classified the data of Commercial Presence (FATS) into horizontal FATS and vertical FATS, and the regression results also validate our assumptions.

The China–US trade war during 2018–2019 has attracted attentions from academics, policy makers, businesses and investors around the world. Unlike previous researches which are mainly based on hypothetical scenarios, this study looks at the real effects of the China–US trade war on the Chinese economy. Based on either weekly or monthly data during January 2018–December 2019 including creatively using the Google Trends data to measure the severity of the trade war, this study examines the effects of the China–US trade war on Chinese Renminbi, China–US bilateral trade and stock markets.

PurposeThis study aims to examine the impacts of changing US trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU Index) on US bilateral trade balance with China from a nonlinear methodology perspective.Design/methodology/approachThe nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied. This model decomposes the TPU Index series into its increases (TPU+) and decreases (TPU−) and creates two new TPU Index series.FindingsEmpirical findings indicate that increases in the TPU Index improve the US bilateral trade balance only in the short-run (no long-run impact). However, decreases in the TPU Index worsen the US trade balance in the short run but improve it in the long run. Apart from these effects detected on US–China bilateral trade balances, this empirical study draws the conclusion that changing trade policy uncertainty plays a significant determining role for bilateral trade volumes.Originality/valueDecomposed TPU index with the nonlinear ARDL model enables us to examine the separate impacts of the changes in TPU+ and TPU− indexes on US bilateral trade balance with China. Therefore, this model may discover potentially concealed-hidden true impacts of TPU index on US bilateral trade balance with this country.

In order to analyse the effect of exchange rate uncertainty, we apply an empirical gravity equation to two sets of US bilateral trade data: fresh fruit over the period 1976–1999 for a panel of 26 countries; and fresh vegetables over the period 1976–2006 for a panel of nine countries. Based on panel estimation methods, and using both a moving SD measure and the Perée and Steinherr (1989) measure of exchange rate uncertainty, the results show that US bilateral fresh fruit trade has been negatively affected by exchange rate uncertainty. We also find some evidence that the exchange rate between the US dollar and the currencies of Latin American trading partners accounts for most of the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade flows in fresh fruit. In contrast, when using panel estimation methods and both measures of exchange rate uncertainty, we find no statistically significant evidence for any negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on US bilateral fresh vegetable trade. However, we do find a statistically significant negative effect for exchange rate uncertainty when we estimate a US export gravity equation for fresh vegetables using the same panel of countries.

Product bilateral trade features can be organized and expressed in the Cartesian coordinate system by taking imports and exports as X and Y, which is similar to spatial visualization. Hence, geospatial expression and analysis methodologies can be applied in bilateral trade studies. In this paper, we propose a new digital trade feature map (DTFM) method for the visualization of bilateral trade features from a spatial perspective. The implementation process of DTFM can be summarized as feature extraction, visualization, and analysis. China–US bilateral trade data were used in several case studies. As the case studies show, the DTFM has the advantages of clear expression, easy operationalization and is highly extensible. Moreover, this method can provide a broader perspective for the understanding of trade features, i.e., in comprehensively considering the features of a specific product type and its neighbors. Furthermore, we propose an extensible DTFM application framework into which different trade features, different grid generation modes, and numerous spatial analysis models can be readily integrated.

In April 2022, the United States traded with approximately 233 countries. Exports and imports of goods and services represent 11.73% and 14.58% of U.S. GDP respectively. Because of that, U.S. bilateral trade is important. COVID-19 impacted the economy and trade in different ways as supply and demand changes. The objective of this study is to determine the impact of COVID-19 in U.S. bilateral trade using an augmented gravity model and panel data from 20 U.S. partner countries and the United States over 24 quarters, from 2015 to 2021. To accomplish these objectives, a gravity model was used and Random effects GLS and PPML methods were applied. Two models were created, one for U.S. exports and another for U.S. imports with both having explanatory variables that include, GDP from the U.S. and partners countries, currency exchange rate, free trade agreements, new COVID-19 cases for the U.S. and trader partners, direct payments to individuals for both the U.S. and trade partners and other stimulus given to trader partners. All these variables were normalized as indices. The study shows that GDP impacts trade flows, both exports and imports, as the gravity model suggests. COVID-19 had a significant impact on US exports and imports, both in the U.S. and trader partners. The results show that when new U.S. COVID-19 cases increased, U.S. exports increased, and U.S. imports decreased. When new COVID-19 cases of U.S. trading partners increased, U.S. exports are shown to decrease and U.S. imports increase. Theory suggests that the impact on U.S. exports and imports may occur due to a decrease in consumption resulting from lockdowns.

There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and US estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re‐exports through Hong Kong, re‐export markups, and trade in services. Deficit‐shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, owing to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China–US bilateral trade deficit. The 1995 China–US bilateral balance of trade in goods and services, adjusted by both re‐exports and re‐export markups, may be estimated as US$23.3 billion, a large deficit but considerably smaller than the often‐cited official US figure of US$33.8 billion.

The pattern of US–China relations can be analyzed through the two opposite experiences – chilling bitterness and friendly accommodations. For a long time, China was neglected by the United States and treated as an enemy due to ideological considerations. The nature of bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing is a very complex one. The US–China economic relationship has reached a critical juncture. Over the few years, the United States has imposed tariffs of $250 billion worth on Chinese imports, and in return, China also raised high tariffs on US exports. The basic objectives of this research are to investigate the causes and potentiality of China–US bilateral trade. It has used the content analysis method and observation method in this study. The result of the study will be manifested based on recent trade restrictions and economic sanctions to each other. The impact of the recent Sino-American trade war resulted in a negative impact on not only both countries’ economies but also on the world economy.

There are wide discrepancies in bilateral trade data compiled by China and by its trading partners, particularly the United States. This paper investigates the main reasons, notably the role of Hong Kong as an entrepôt, and develops a methodology to provide more accurate estimates for these trade flows. It extends the Sung—Lardy method in recent literature and achieves a reconciliation of the two data sets by China and by its major partners. The method recognizes that both the Chinese and the partners' data are likely to be distorted and demonstrates that a complete picture can he constructed by using data recorded from Hong Kong. A new estimate of the re-export margins in Hong Kong on Chinese exports is presented and used in the data reconciliation exercises, and problems of valuation and transit lag when comparing an export series with its counterpart import series are taken into account by the new method. The effects of using proved data are demonstrated in an application to examine fair market access in China—US bilateral trade undertaken by Tower (1993).

A few studies in dynamic general‐equilibrium setting have argued that the trade balance is negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements, hence the S‐curve phenomenon. Using aggregate trade data and the terms of trade has not provided strong empirical counterpart. However, in this paper, when we disaggregate the trade data between the US and her trading partners we find stronger results in support of the S‐curve.

At the start, this paper firstly converges the data set given in the topic to count out the data from 1990-2021. After that, uses the count function of MATLAB on the pd library to statistically analyze the family data, so as to get the greatest number of wild animal groups and species transactions, and concludes that: among the species varieties, the category of Cercopithecidae has the most number, followed by Felidae, Cebidae. among the specific genera of animals, Macaca had the highest number, followed by Papio and Potos. Next, this paper analyzes the statistical options so as to obtain the most important trade purposes, and concludes that: the analysis of the global wildlife trade records from 2003 to 2021 shows that the purposes of wildlife trade are the most used for wildlife trade, zoo use, and circus performances. After that, this paper uses the number of trade imports and exports over the years as the basic data to measure the state of the trade market, and later analyzes it by constructing the growth rate of trade transactions as an indicator to assess the state of the wildlife trade market. The concludes that: with the change of time, the economy was relatively stable in the pre-wild trade market, and there was a market turmoil in 2012, and then it stabilized. Market turbulence was observed in both 2018-2022, with a depressed status quo in the wild trade market. Then, this paper will use multiple regression analysis to analyze the number of import and export transactions of wildlife trade each year and the degree of epidemic, so that the correlation between the two can be judged by the regression coefficient, and the conclusion is: the severity of the epidemic will indeed have a certain impact on the wild trade market, and this relationship shows a typical negative correlation, that is, the higher the severity of the epidemic, the lower the import and export The lower the severity of the epidemic, the higher the import and export trade in the wild trade market. Last, the annual wildlife trade import and export quantities are used as the basic data, and the total global GDP is collected as an indicator of the global economy, so that a multiple regression model is constructed to analyze the relationship between the global wildlife trade import and export quantities and the total global GDP, and concludes that: based on this analysis, this paper concludes that the global wildlife trade ban needs to be adhered to at least for a long period of time, and that the wildlife trade does affect the global economic situation.

PurposeChina’s exchange rate system remains a public concern. This paper aims to investigate the effects of the appreciation of the US dollar (or depreciation of Chinese Yuan) under China’s “managed floating exchange rate system” on the US bilateral trade deficit with China, the US exports to China and the US imports from China.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses quarterly data from 2005Q3 to 2017Q3 and applies autoregressive distributed lags model to carry out the empirical analysis.FindingsThe results suggest that both the US and Chinese income are important determinants of the US bilateral trade deficit with China, the US exports to China and the US imports from China. Further, the appreciation of the US dollar with respect to Chinese currency may discourage the US exports to China, but will not considerably promote the US imports from China in the long run. Finally, the appreciation of the US dollar does not contribute significantly to the US trade deficit with China in the long run.Originality/valuePolicymakers may want to pay attention to the results of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows and trade balance in both the short and the long run. The results are different. Policymakers may also want to keep the following in mind: both the US and Chinese income are vital factors of bilateral trade balance, exports and imports.

The export of total wood products from India is 0.40% of total production, though India is importing 7107 thousand m wood products.3 This indicates the huge demand of wood products in India.The export quantity and value of different wood products from India is less than the import which showed negative balance of trade for wood products.Therefore the present investigation was carried out with the objective to study the composition, percentage share of India in the world, growth, variability and comparative advantage of export and import of different wood products from India.Present investigation was based on secondary data collected from the official website of International Tropical Timber Organization for the period from 2001 to 2021.The quantity and value of export and import of total wood products raised during study period.Among the wood products exported from India, highest export quantity is in case of plywood and veneer while the percentage share of Industrial round wood and swan wood in total wood product export was less.The highest quantity and value of import from India was for industrial round where as it was less for plywood and veneer.The quantity of export and import of total wood products, plywood and veneer from India increased significantly where as the import of all the wood products.The export quantity of total wood product (47.72%)having higher variability than the import quantity of total wood products (32.81%).The higher variability in export and import quantity in veneer, plywood and swan wood.The values of revealed comparative advantage and revealed symmetric comparative advantage indicated that India had higher comparative advantage in export of veneer and plywood than the other wood products during the study period.

7 - An empirical study of the relationship between the US FDI inflows and China–US bilateral trade imbalances: based on vertical specialization

Neither the Chinese nor US economic systems will fundamentally change as a result of overt trade conflict. The challenge for policy‐relevant economics is to design a regime for China–US commerce that accepts the co‐existence but also addresses underlying disputes. Many important China–US disputes, notably those over intellectual property protection and state subsidies, cannot be resolved by the World Trade Organization, thus new institutions must be built. Economics‐based regime principles should entail recognition that: the China–US bilateral trade imbalance is unique mainly because of macroeconomic and financial factors, not trade; agreements should restrict commercial and government behaviors, not target economic outcomes; Chinese companies must compete and be allowed to succeed in any sector, including high‐technology; China is not entitled to US‐owned technology, thus intellectual property rights must be enforced; and the US Government should support an increased role for China in global economic governance.