Abstract
We explore economic incentives for third parties to intervene in ongoing internal wars. We develop a three-party model of the decision to intervene in conflict that highlights the role of the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs. We present novel empirical results on the role of oil in motivating third-party military intervention. We find that the likelihood of a third-party intervention increases when (a) the country at war has large reserves of oil, (b) the relative competition in the sector is limited, and (c) the potential intervener has a higher demand for oil.
Highlights
Civil wars are the dominant form of conflict in the world and constitute more than 90% of contemporary armed conflicts
We model the military dimension of third party intervention by adopting the approach introduced by Grossman & Kim (1995) and more recently applied by Dunne et al (2006) whereby military might deters civil war
Higher rebel capabilities increase the probability of a military intervention, possibly because the term picks up weaker government with a lower chance to prevail and prospects for a peaceful settlement process
Summary
Civil wars are the dominant form of conflict in the world and constitute more than 90% of contemporary armed conflicts. The higher the oil endowments of an oil-producing country experiencing a civil war, the more likely a third party intervention This proposition implies that the incentives to intervene are higher the larger the oil endowments of the country experiencing a civil war, irrespective of the identity of a potential third party intervener.
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