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Ocean acidification and changes in biological production in the western subarctic region of the North Pacific over the quarter century, 1999–2023

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This study analyzes 25 years of biogeochemical data at site K2 in the North Pacific, revealing ocean acidification with pH decreasing at 0.0013 per year and nutrient trends showing seasonal variability. Net community production declines from winter to May but increases from winter to July, possibly due to shifts in diatom bloom timing, amid decreasing photosynthetically active radiation in May.

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Abstract Changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the ocean over time can affect marine ecosystems. In this study, we use biogeochemical observational data for the past 25 years (1999–2023) to investigate ocean acidification and changes in biological production at site K2 (47˚ N, 160˚ E) in the western subarctic region of the North Pacific Ocean. During this period, satellite-derived sea surface temperatures increased at a rate of 0.056 °C yr –1 , while the surface mixed-layer salinity decreased by 0.004 yr −1 . As a result of the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere, the deseasonalized annual mean surface mixed-layer pH and saturation states of calcium carbonate minerals of calcite and aragonite decreased at rates of 0.0013 ± 0.0004, 0.007 ± 0.003, and 0.004 ± 0.002 yr −1 , respectively. These rates are consistent with those calculated for winter. Under these acidification conditions, no significant trends were observed in either the annual mean or winter concentrations of nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, and silicate), or in total alkalinity in the surface mixed layer. However, the decadal trends in nutrient concentrations show a significant increase in May and decrease in July. Net community production (NCP), which is an index of biological production, was estimated from differences in nutrient concentrations between winter and May or July. This analysis revealed significant decreasing trends in NCP from winter to May, followed by increasing trends from winter to July. The stoichiometric molar ratio of Si associated with the July NCP increase (P:N:Si = 1:15:55) is higher than the previously reported ratio (1:16:40). A significant decreasing trend in satellite-derived photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was observed in May (0.20 ± 0.08 yr −1 ), which may be linked to reduced biological production during that month. This decrease may be offset by increased production in summer that is likely due to a shift in the timing of the diatom bloom. These findings highlight the effects of long-term changes of potential drivers of both atmospheric and deep oceanic origin on oceanic biological production.

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The role of spring biological production for the air—sea CO2 flux was quantified in the Western Subarctic Gyre (48°N, 165°E), where the vertical profile of temperature revealed the existence of a temperature minimum (Tmin) layer in the North Pacific. The vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC, in the upper water column were significantly variable year by year in spring, 1996–2000. Correspondingly, surface seawater at this site in spring was supersaturated with CO2 in 1997, 1999 and 2000, but was undersaturated in 1996 and 1998. The concentrations of DIC and nutrients in the winter mixed layer were estimated from those in the Tmin layer in spring with a correction for particle decomposition based on the apparent oxygen utilization. The net community production (NCP) and air—sea CO2 flux from winter to spring were calculated from the vertically integrated deficits of DIC and nutrients in the upper water column between the two seasons. The calculation of the carbon budget indicated large interannual variations of NCP (0–13 mmol m−2 d−1) and CO2 efflux (4–16 mmol m−2 d−1) for this period. The CO2 efflux was generally low in the year when NCP was high. The close coupling between biological production and CO2 efflux suggested the important role of the changes in the mixed-layer depth, as a key process controlling both processes, especially of the timing, so that a decrease in the mixed-layer depth could result in the activation of biological production. The early biological consumption of the surface DIC concentration could shorten the period for acting as a source for atmospheric CO2 and depress the CO2 efflux in the Western Subarctic Gyre from winter to spring in 1996 and 1998. On the contrary, in 1997, persistently deep vertical mixing until late spring could suppress the biological activity and give rise to long-lasting CO2 efflux.

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