Observing System Simulation Experiments to Assess the Potential Impact of New Observing Systems on Hurricane Forecasting

Abstract

AbstractObserving System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are an important tool for evaluating the potential impact of new or proposed observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. Extensive OSSEs have been conducted at the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) over the last three decades. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch; evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage, and accuracy for space-based wind lidars; and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. This paper summarizes early applications of global OSSEs to hurricane track forecasting and new experiments using both global and regional models. These latter experiments are aimed at assessing potential impact on hurricane track and intensity prediction over the oceans and at landfall.