Observed Changes in Long-Term Climatic Conditions and Inner-Regional Differences in Urban Regions of the Baltic Sea Coast

The five essays of this dissertation combine topics from development and environmental economics. All essays treat the overall topic on how to influence and regulate the production of CO2 emissions. The green house gas CO2 is one of the biggest externalities from human development during the last century. The essays give insight on how changes in local climate conditions affect human wellbeing and what are the potential monetary loses from a rise in average temperature in Latin America. They further analyze the major drivers of CO2 emissions at the household as well as national level and assess how current international climate policy has contributed to reduce CO2 emissions. The last essay gives an overview on how unequal emissions are globally distributed and what will be the future distribution of CO2 emissions when taking different policy scenarios into account. The first essay analyzes how changes in local climatic conditions affect the level of welfare in Latin America. Self reported wellbeing levels are used as a proxy for individual welfare. Subjective wellbeing does not only account for changes in individual income but also for changes in other areas, which determine overall welfare, such as the access to health care or schooling. The study finds that a temperature up to 22 degrees Celsius and rainfall up to 247mm are beneficial for human wellbeing. Higher temperatures or rainfall go in line with welfare loses. A global average warming of 2 degrees Celsius would go in line with welfare loses in Latin America. The second essay analyzes household emissions from consumption, the so-called carbon footprint, in India. The study focuses on the effect of changes in income and the socio- economic composition of the household. A higher household income leads to higher consumption but at the same time the goods, which are consumed change towards lower carbon intensive goods. Still the change in the consumption pattern does not offset the higher carbon footprint due to overall higher consumption rates with rising income. The third essay evaluates how current international climate policy did influence CO2 emissions. Countries with obligations from the Kyoto Protocol did indeed emit on average 6.5% less CO2 than comparable countries with similar income and population growth but without any commitments from Kyoto Protocol. The fourth essay analyzes the main determinant of rising CO2 emissions, namely income. The focus is not on changes in income but on changes in the income distribution within a country and its effect on CO2 emissions. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions per capita and income inequality is U-shaped: for countries characterized by high income inequality, reductions in income inequality are associated with lower per capita emissions. For less unequal societies, reductions in income inequality are associated with increases in carbon emissions per capita. The fifth essay studies the global distribution of per capita CO2 emissions. The focus is on the effect the energy mix and the sectoral composition have on emission inequality. The decline of heavy manufacturing in OECD countries and the rise of using coal in non- OECD countries led to a decline of global inequality in per capita CO2 emissions. In the long run there is the possibility that emission inequality will rise again. Each essay contributes to the literature in its specific field. They analyze how economic activities (mostly consumption) influence CO2 emissions, which are considered responsible for changes in climatic conditions. At the same time those changes in climatic conditions affect human wellbeing and go in line with monetary loses. National policies such as redistributive policies can have an influence on national CO2 emissions in both directions and have to be well planned. Policies to influence consumption habits towards less CO2 intensive goods could be efficient to regulate CO2 emissions but might only be feasible in richer countries. International climate policies have shown an impact on CO2 emissions among participating countries. International policies can help to get national policies to reduce CO2 emissions on the way.

Long-term climate trend is being one of greatest research interests amongst climate scientists around the world to see whether climate change occurs or not at local, regional or global scale. However, only a few studies are available that discusses trend of climate extreme in equatorial climate, Indonesia. This paper tries to analyze climate trend and its impact to water availability in Palembang region using daily rainfall and air temperature data for the year of 1984-2009. Trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall test at α equal to 5%. We found that daily air temperature indicated that the rise of maximum, average, and minimum temperatures has occurred with statistically significant changes during the observation period. However, daily temperature range did not significantly change. We didn’t find any significant change for rainfall predictors except the number of rainfall event that significantly showed a decrease trend. With a simple water balance, we calculated monthly soil water content indicating that its’ decline was statistically significant (α=5%). With these findings, we have not made a conclusion whether climate change occurred or not yet, until influence of local effect such as urban heat island clearly explained.Long-term climate trend is being one of greatest research interests amongst climate scientists around the world to see whether climate change occurs or not at local, regional or global scale. However, only a few studies are available that discusses trend of climate extreme in equatorial climate, Indonesia. This paper tries to analyze climate trend and its impact to water availability in Palembang region using daily rainfall and air temperature data for the year of 1984-2009. Trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall test at α equal to 5%. We found that daily air temperature indicated that the rise of maximum, average, and minimum temperatures has occurred with statistically significant changes during the observation period. However, daily temperature range did not significantly change. We didn't find any significant change for rainfall predictors except the number of rainfall event that significantly showed a decrease trend. With a simple water balance, we calculated monthly soil water content indicating that its' decline was statistically significant (α=5%). With these findings, we have not made a conclusion whether climate change occurred or not yet, until influence of local effect such as urban heat island clearly explained.

Based on China’s fifth population survey (2000) data and homogenized annual mean surface air temperature data, the urban heat island (UHI) effect on the warming during the last 50 years in China was analyzed in this study. In most cities with population over 104, where there are national reference stations and principal stations, most of the temperature series are inevitably affected by the UHI effect. To detect the UHI effect, the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) time series were firstly classified into 5 subregions by using Rotated Principal Components Analysis (RPCA) according to its high and low frequency climatic change features. Then the average UHI effect on each subregion’s regional annual mean STA was studied. Results indicate that the UHI effect on the annual mean temperatures includes three aspects: increase of the average values, decrease of variances and change of the climatic trends. The effect on the climatic trends is different from region to region. In the Yangtze River Valley and South China, the UHI effect enhances the warming trends by about 0.011 °C/decade. In the other areas, such as Northeast, North-China, and Northwest, UHI has little impact on the warming trends of the regional annual temperature; while in the Southwest of China, introducing UHI stations slows down the warming trend by −0.006 °C/decade. But no matter what subregion it is, the total warming/cooling of these effects is much smaller than the background change in regional temperature. The average UHI effect for the entire country, during the last 50 years is less than 0.06 °C, which agrees well with the IPCC (2001). This suggests that we cannot conclude that urbanization during the last 50 years has had much obvious effect on the observed warming in China.

The urban heat island (UHI) effect might cause extreme weather, which would seriously affect people’s health, increase energy consumption and cause other negative impacts. To construct urban green spaces is a feasible strategy to effectively weaken the UHI effect. In this study, the cooling effect of green spaces on the UHI effect was carefully investigated in summer and winter in Harbin city. Specifically, the vegetation index and surface temperature information were extracted by the grid method, and based on this data, the relationship between the urban green space and the UHI effect was analyzed quantitatively. In summer, the cooling effect is more significant. The average cooling extent reached 1.65 °C, the average maximum temperature change was 7.5 °C, and the cooling range was mainly 120 m. The cooling effect can be improved by adjusting the green space area, perimeter and shape. Increasing the green area (within 37 ha) or the green circumference (within 5300 m) can most economically improve its cooling effect. The shape factor would significantly affect the cooling effect within 0.03. The simpler the green space shape, the more obvious the cooling effect. In contrast, in winter the green spaces had a certain cooling effect when there was no snow cover or little snow cover, although this was still less significant compared with the situation in summer. The average cooling extent reached 0.48 °C, the average maximum temperature change was 4.25 °C, and the cooling range was mainly 90 m. However, there is no correlation between urban green space and the UHI effect in areas mainly covered by ice and snow. This work could provide protocols for urban green space design to effectively control the UHI effect of sub-frigid cities.

Predicting species responses to climate change has become a dynamic field in global change research. A crucial question in this debate is whether-or-not species have been and will be able to respond quickly enough to keep up with changing climatic conditions. Focusing on fossil pollen records and paleoclimatic simulations, this work assesses the change in realized climatic niches (climatic temporal trajectories) of 20 plant taxa over the last 16000 yr, and whether this tracking has been the same for different climatic niche dimensions. Climatic factors showed a consistent trend toward warmer temperatures and higher precipitation. Although the response types varied across taxa, species' realized climatic niches lagged in response to changes in climatic conditions. Temperature niches responded to late Pleistocene (16000-11000 yr ago) climate change, but did so at slower rates than changes in climatic conditions during the same period. In contrast, precipitation niches were relatively stable from 16000 to 11000 yr ago, but still lagged behind changes in climatic conditions. Changes in temperature and precipitation niches eventually stabilized during the Holocene (11000-1000 yr ago). These results underscore how the climatic niche realized at any one moment represents a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist, particularly during times of fast climatic change. Variability in the rates of temporal trajectories across evaluated climatic variables showed taxa specific responses to changes in climatic conditions over time and emphasizes the need to incorporate variation, intensity, and duration of lag effects in assessments of the possible effects of climatic change.

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 30:255-262 (2006) - doi:10.3354/cr030255 Climatic trends in Cameroon: implications for agricultural management Ernest L. Molua* Department of Economics & Management, University of Buea, PO Box 63, Buea, South West Province, Cameroon *Email: emolua@gmx.net ABSTRACT: The weather in Cameroon, an ecologically diverse country in central Africa, is determined by equatorial and tropical air masses. Agricultural production is predominantly rain-fed, and the semi-extensive farming systems are particularly sensitive to small changes in climatic conditions. To estimate the relevance of climate issues for farmers' livelihoods, time series techniques were employed to analyse real temperature and precipitation series for 1960-2000 at selected weather stations across Cameroon. Strong positive temperature trends exist for the months of July, August and September. Significant trends in precipitation are observed at Kribi and Douala in the coastal region, and Batouri in the forest savanna ecotone; marginally significant trends occur in Mamfe in the rainforest and Bafoussam in the Guinean savanna zone. The results indicate that locally increasing temperatures are linked to increasing dryness and drought. Management of Cameroon's agrarian economy will require improved monitoring and forecasting, a shift toward more drought-resistant crops and varieties, adaptation of planting methods, and implementation of water conservation techniques. KEY WORDS: Cameroon · Climate variation · Trend analysis · Agrarian economy Full text in pdf format PreviousNextExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 30, No. 3. Online publication date: April 26, 2006 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2006 Inter-Research.

Investigating the changes in the extreme temperature indices is crucial for the assessment of climate change and to recommend practical adaptation strategies particularly in countries like Nepal, which is highly prone to the impacts of extreme climatic events. This study analyses the mean temperatures and the changes of extreme temperature indices at 25 stations located in different physiographic regions in Nepal at monthly and annual time scales for 1986–2015. Ten extreme temperature indices recommended by ETCCDI are selected and examined. Quality control is first conducted for original daily maximum and minimum temperature data. In Nepal, it is warming in general with maximum temperature (0.04°C year−1) increasing faster than minimum temperature (0.02°C year−1) on countrywide average which is contrary to the changes in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings and the global average. The changes in extreme temperatures are spatiotemporally heterogeneous and unique. Annually, cold extremes increase but the percentage of days below 10th percentile becomes less frequent. Terai and Siwalik plain regions show negative annual trends in cold indices (TNn and TXn), but mixed changes in other extreme indices. There are strong correlations between the trends of maximum temperature‐related variables and elevation. This analysis also adds the evidence of pronounced warming in higher elevation only for day‐time extreme temperatures but not for temperature minima in Nepal which differs from the other studies around the world. This study also reveals that December and January tend to have colder days in the Terai. However, summer months are getting hotter in each region across the country. Kathmandu, the most urbanized city in Nepal shows a significant increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) and minimum Tmin (TNn) indicating the influence of urbanization in temperature change ‐ an urban heat island effect.

The urban planner´s role should be adapted to the current globalised and overspecialised economic and environmental context, envisioning a balance at the regional scale, apprehending not only new technologies, but also new mapping principles, that allow obtaining multidisciplinary integral overviews since the preliminary stages of the design process. The urban heat Island (UHI) is one of the main phenomena affecting the urban climate. In the Netherlands, during the heat wave of 2006, more than 1,000 extra deaths were registered. UHI-related parameters are an example of new elements that should be taken into consideration since the early phases of the design process.\n
\nProblem statement
\n\nThus, the development of urban design guidelines to reduce the heat islands in Dutch cities and regions requires first an overall reflection on the heat island phenomenom (relevance of the large scale assessment, existing tools, instruments) and proposal of integrative and catalysing mapping strategies and then a specific assessment of the phenomenom at the selected locations in The Netherlands (testing those principles).\n
\nMain research question
\n\nCould the use of satellite imagery help analyse the UHI in the Netherlands and contribute to suggest catalysing mitigation acions actions implementable in the existing urban context of the cities, regions and provinces assessed?\n
\nMethod
\n\nThe development of urban design principles that aim at reaching a physical balance at the regional scale is critical to ensure a reduction of the UHI effect. Landsat and Modis satellite imagery can be analysed and processed using ATCOR 2/3, ENVI 4.7 and GIS, allowing not only a neighbourhood, city and regional scale assessment, but also generating holistic catalysing mapping typologies: game-board, rhizome, layering and drift, which are critical to ensure the integration of all parameters. The scientific inputs need to be combined not only with other disciplines but often also with existing urban plans. The connection between scientific research and existing agreed visions is critical to ensure the integration of new aspects into the plans.\n
\nResults
\n\nAt the neighbourhood level the areas that have a greater heat concentration in the cities of Delft, Leiden, Gouda, Utrecht and Den Bosch are the city centres characterised by their red ceramic roof tiles, brick street paving, and canals. Several mitigation strategies could be implemented to improve the UHI effect in those areas; however, since the city centres are consolidated and listed urban areas, the mitigation measures that would be easier to implement would consist in improving the roof albedo. A consistent implementation of albedo improvement measures (improving the thermal behaviour not only of flat roofs, but also of tiled pitched roofs) of all roofs included in the identified hotspots (with an average storage heat flux greater than 90 W/m2) would help reduce the temperatures between 1.4°C and 3°C. Pre-war and post-war compact and ground-based neighbourhoods present similar thermal behaviour of the surface cover, and green neighbourhoods and small urban centres also present similar thermal behaviour.\n
\n\nAt the city scale the analysis of 21 medium-size cities in the province of North Brabant, which belongs to the South region of the county -in relative terms the most affected by the UHI phenomenon during the heat wave of 2006-, reveals that albedo and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) are the most relevant parameters influencing the average nightime land surface temperature (LST). Thus, imperviousness, distance to the nearest town and the area of the cities do not seem to play a significant role in the LST night values for the medium-size cities analysed in the region of North Brabant, which do not exceed 7,700 ha in any case. The future growth of most medium-size cities of the regions will not per se aggravate the UHI phenomenon; in turn it will be the design of the new neighbourhoods that will impact the formation of urban heat in the province.\n
\n\nThe average day LST of provincial parks in South Holland varies depending on the land use. The analysis of the average night LST varies depending of the land use of the patches. The following surfaces are arranged from the lowest to the highest temperatures: water surfaces, forests, cropland, and greenhouse areas. For each of these land uses, NDVI, imperviousness and landscape shape index (LSI) shape index influence the thermal behaviour of the patches differently. NDVI is inversely correlated to day LST for all categories, imperviousness is correlated to day LST for all areas which do not comprise a significant presence of greenhouses (grassland and built patches) and inversely correlated to LST for areas with a high presence of greenhouses (cropland and warehouses). Greenhouse surfaces have highly reflective roofs, which contribute to the reduction of day LST. Finally, landscape shape index varies depending on the nature of the surrounding patches, especially for small patches (built areas, forests and greenhouse areas). When the patches analysed are surrounded by warmer land uses, slender and scattered patches are warmer, more compact and large ones are cooler. In turn, when they are surrounded by cooler patches it is the opposite: slenderer and scattered patches are cooler and more compact and larger ones are warmer. In Midden-Delfland (1 of the 6 South Holland provincial parks), most of the hotspots surrounding the park are adjacent to grassland patches. The measure to increase the cooling capacity of those patches would consist in a change of land use and/or an increase of NDVI of the existing grassland patches.\n
\nConclusions
\n\nSatellite imagery can be used not only to analyse the heat island phenomenom in Dutch neighbourhoods, cities and regions (identify neighbourhoods with highest surface temperature, identify impact of city size and morphology in surface temperature, calcuate average surface temperature for different land uses…), but also to suggest mitigation actions for the areas assessed. Moreover, satellite imagery is here used to generate catalysing mapping typologies: game-board, rhizome, layering and drift, ensuring that the measures proposed remain accurate enough to actualy be efficient and open enough to be compatible with the rest of urban planning priorities.

The abrupt temperature change (ATC) and warming hiatus (WH) phenomena impact global resources and the environment. However, information on the spatial and temporal variability in the ATC and WH over large regions, long time scales and densely distributed stations is lacking. In the study, based on average minimum, average and average maximum temperatures data from 1951 to 2016 from 622 meteorological stations in China, the spatial and temporal variability in the timing of the ATC and WH events and the characteristics before and after these events were revealed by using the Mann–Kendall test. In most areas of China, an ATC occurred in the three temperature parameters, and the onset of the changes occurred later at lower latitudes. The ATC in the average minimum temperature occurred earlier than that in the average temperature, and the ATC in the average maximum temperature occurred the latest. After the ATC, a WH occurred at most of the stations that experienced an increase in temperature, whereas a cooling hiatus (CH) did not occur at stations that experienced a decrease in temperature. The regions with decreasing temperatures were concentrated in the hilly and plain areas of southern China and in subtropical and tropical monsoon climate zones. The WH of the average temperature occurred earlier than that of the average maximum temperature, which occurred earlier than that of the average minimum temperature. Overall, the WH began later from east to west and was mainly concentrated in approximately 1998 and 2007. Both the ATC and the WH in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau area showed hysteresis. The ATC to WH period was between three and 27 years, and the earlier the ATC was, the longer was the period. Before the ATC, all three temperature parameters increased slightly. The average minimum temperature rose faster than the average temperature, and the average maximum temperature rose the slowest. Furthermore, the variation became more dramatic from southeast to northwest. After the ATC, the temperatures in most areas increased rapidly, and the rate of temperature increase increased with decreasing latitude. The average maximum temperature decreased in the area east of 100° E and south of 30° N. In this area, the rates of temperature increase for the average minimum and average temperatures were on a par with the rate of decrease in the absolute average maximum temperature, with the rates being three to five times greater than those before the ATC, but without dramatic variations. After the ATC, a CH did not occur at the stations where the temperature had decreased, whereas a WH occurred after a certain period of time at most of the stations where the temperature had increased. Moreover, such occurrences differed with latitude. A comparison of the temperature after the WH with that both before and after the ATC but before the WH revealed that the temperature did not vary dramatically. Eight to 10 years after the WH, the temperatures at a small number of stations in northern China rose again; however, due to the short length of the time series, it is impossible to determine whether the WH had truly ended. The results of the study enrich the findings of climate change research and provide a reference for addressing resource and environmental issues.

The temporal variability and abrupt change analysis of temperature and precipitation in Turpan was investigated and examined based on a monthly data set of temperature, precipitation and drought indices (1960–2019) from three meteorological stations over the study area. The Yamamoto method, Mann–Kendall test, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were applied to reveal temperature, precipitation and drought indices trends in their annual volumes. The conclusions were as follows: (1) in the past 60 years, the annual average temperature in the Turpan region has increased at a rate of 0.33 °C·(10a)−1. Whereas the temperature has accelerated since the 1980s, the annual average minimum temperature has increased more than the annual average maximum temperature, and the temperature difference between winter and summer has increased since the 1990s. (2) The inter-annual, inter-decadal and normal value changes in precipitation in the Turpan region and its three meteorological stations indicated a decreasing trend during 1960–2019. Though the normal value of summer and autumn precipitation decreased and increased as a whole, the normal values of spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation in the Turpan region displayed downward trends. (3) Abrupt changes in temperature were observed in the mid-1990s, and abrupt changes in precipitation were not obvious. (4) The SPI and RDI responded quickly to precipitation and temperature, and the overall characteristics of dry and wet trend changes were consistent. When the SPEI considered the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, the SPI and SPEI are better correlated, and the SPI and RDI are better correlated than the SPEI and RDI. On the whole, the occurrence of drought has obvious regional and seasonal characteristics. These conclusions not only provide scientific data for sustainable development in Turpan but also offer scientific information to further understand the trends and periodicity of climate change and drought conditions in hyper-arid regions around the world.

This paper focuses on the monitoring of the urban heat island (UHI) effect with temporal and spatial variation, combining Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data. Our study area is located in the central urban area of Beijing, which mainly refers to the areas within the fifth ring road. For detecting UHI changes over the years 2002–2006, three ASTER images in the summers of 2003, 2004 and 2006 and two TM datasets in the summers of 2002 and 2005 were collected. For monitoring UHI changes with the seasons, three ASTER images and one TM image in 2004 in winter, spring, summer and autumn, respectively, were employed. To calculate the urban heat island intensity, the land surface temperatures were retrieved iteratively for ASTER data and using a generalized single-channel method for the TM image. Four separated regions located in four directions outside the fifth ring road were selected as representing rural comparative regions. Their averaged land surface temperature was regarded as the rural comparative temperature. The UHI intensity was computed by the difference between the pixel urban land surface temperature in the urban area and the comparative temperature in the rural area. Detection of the UHI effect over 2002 to 2006 indicated that most of the areas with high UHI effect were the industrial land use regions and the areas having a high density of buildings, roads, transportations and residents; and the areas without UHI effect were located around the regions with large areas of grassland, trees and water bodies. Our results also showed that the UHI effect was not proportional to urbanization over time. Statistical UHI data during 20 July to 20 September in 2003–2008 also support this point. The monitoring of the UHI effect over seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) showed that the urban area of Beijing city had a high UHI effect except in winter, when the urban area of Beijing was in an urban heat sink; the UHI effect increased in spring, summer and autumn.

How climate variations are reflected in root zone storage capacities

Climate change is a hot issue concerned by governments, society and scientists all over the world. Some measures will be developed by the governments after studying district climate change. Based on climate dates such as average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and precipitation at the monthly scale obtained from eight meteorological stations over the Nantong region in Jiangsu province during the Period 1951-2018 in this paper. Climate change law was studied. This research methods include accumulative anomaly method, linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet analysis. Results showed as following: (1) temperature has an obviously upward trend, but the differences between annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, and annual average minimum temperature are at little level. The trend in precipitation is not prominent in the period. The average values for the first 10 years of this century and the last 30 years are the chronological and period maximum. (2) The increase rate of temperature in spring is greatest during four seasons, and the significant is also the biggest. The increase rate of temperature in winter is greater than autumn, but the significant is reverse. Precipitation increases in summer and winter, but decrease in spring. (3) Mutation years of temperature and precipitation change were mainly in 1996-1998 and 2002-2004. (4) For period change, temperature and precipitation showed stable changes at a shorter time scale, such as 10 years or 2-3 years, and some longer scale period change for 30 years for mean average temperature. Overall, climate change over Nantong was consistent with other regions in China, and it also had its own unique features in some aspects.

Climate variability due to the greenhouse effect has important implications on hydrological processes and water resources systems. Indeed, water availability, quality and streamflow are very sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes whose effects have to be fully considered in current water management and planning. International literature proposes several models, attempting to assess accurately the available water resources under stationary and changing climatic conditions at different spatial and temporal scales. In order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on surface and groundwater resources water availability in a Southern area of Italy, a conceptual hydrologic model, the TOPDM, was applied at daily scale to simulate the hydrological processes in the Belice river basin, located in Sicily and which feeds an artificial lake. The analysis of climatic forcings trend provided the parameters needed in order to generate synthetic climate forcing series through the use of the AWE-GEN, an hourly weather generator, able to reproduce the characteristics of hydro-climatic variables and their statistical properties. . The hydrological model was used to estimate the basin water balance components and the surface and groundwater availability, at annual and monthly scale, in a no trend scenario, representing the current climate conditions, and in three different groups of scenarios, in which a decrease of precipitation, an increase of temperature, and a combination of these effect were reproduced. The application of TOPDM to the test basin provided some important conclusions about the implications of climate change in the Southern part of Italy. Results showed that runoff and evapotranspiration reflect variations in precipitation and in temperature; in particular the negative trend in precipitation determines a decrease in surface and groundwater resources, and this effect is intensified in the scenarios that include an increase in potential evapotraspiration as well. The consequences of changes on water supply system were also analyzed through a simple balance evaluation of the lake water reservoir, in order to assess the possible impacts on the resource managements. Results indicated an exacerbation of the water resources stresses, in which water scarcity is already an important issue for water resource management. The analysis provides useful information about the quantification of the potential effects of climate change in the area of study, in order to develop new strategies to deal with these changes.

The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970–2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 °C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999–2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 °C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities.