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Observability constrains expertise-dependent kinematic readout in action prediction.

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Abstract
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Human movement is variable even when the latent intention is identical, which complicates action prediction from kinematics. Although perceptual expertise often improves anticipation, it remains unclear how this benefit is modulated by intrinsic trial-to-trial fluctuations in kinematic structure. We introduce kinematic observability, operationalized as the distance of a movement instance from the optimal decision boundary in kinematic feature space. In a table-tennis action prediction task with an expert-novice paradigm, we sampled trials based on objective evidence strength rather than masking body parts. Experts outperformed novices on high-observability trials and showed readout weights more closely aligned with the optimal encoding direction. However, under low observability, the expert advantage was attenuated, accompanied by a criterion shift reflecting increased reliance on prior expectations. These results indicate that expertise improves anticipatory readout when observability is high but yields smaller benefits when trial-wise kinematic evidence is weak; under low observability, experts also shift decision criterion in a manner consistent with increased reliance on prior expectations.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 100
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The most widely used account of decision-making proposes that people choose between alternatives by accumulating evidence in favor of each alternative until this evidence reaches a decision boundary. It is frequently assumed that this decision boundary stays constant during a decision, depending on the evidence collected but not on time. Recent experimental and theoretical work has challenged this assumption, showing that constant decision boundaries are, in some circumstances, sub-optimal. We introduce a theoretical model that facilitates identification of the optimal decision boundaries under a wide range of conditions. Time-varying optimal decision boundaries for our model are a result only of uncertainty over the difficulty of each trial and do not require decision deadlines or costs associated with collecting evidence, as assumed by previous authors. Furthermore, the shape of optimal decision boundaries depends on the difficulties of different decisions. When some trials are very difficult, optimal boundaries decrease with time, but for tasks that only include a mixture of easy and medium difficulty trials, the optimal boundaries increase or stay constant. We also show how this simple model can be extended to more complex decision-making tasks such as when people have unequal priors or when they can choose to opt out of decisions. The theoretical model presented here provides an important framework to understand how, why, and whether decision boundaries should change over time in experiments on decision-making.

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  • Research Article
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