Abstract
É possível exportar democracia pelo uso da força? Este artigo refere-se a essa questão, tomando como caso empírico a intervenção militar da OTAN/Estados Unidos no Líbano durante os levantes da Primavera Árabe em 2011 e seu seguimento. Propomo-nos a testar e refinar o modelo da Foreign Imposed Regime Change- FIRC (quantitativo) utilizando os métodos qualitativos de estudo de caso e process tracing. Tais métodos permitem identificar variáveis independentes não antecipadas pelo modelo FIRC, desvendando as reais e complexas clivagens sócio-políticas do país que inibem a democratização e abrem caminho para a guerra civil.
Highlights
In the year 2011, Libya participated in the uprising of the Arab Spring against its decades-old dictatorship ruled by Khadhafi and fought for a new and pluralized regime
The main actors who initiated and persisted in the Libyan Civil War are about the same who were marginalized by the Khadhafi regime
After years of repression from the former government, the Arab Spring gave to Islamist groups and tribes from the region of Cyrenaica the opportunity to actively lead the ousting from power of the oppressive leader and establish a new Libya in which they would be in control
Summary
In the year 2011, Libya participated in the uprising of the Arab Spring against its decades-old dictatorship ruled by Khadhafi and fought for a new and pluralized regime. The process of political transition on post-Arab Spring Libya: foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC), tribe, militias, and civil war 2
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