Abstract
This paper evaluates the sensitivity to cumulus and microphysics schemes, as represented in numerical simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, in characterizing a deep convection event over the Cuban island on 1 May 2012. To this end, 30 experiments combining five cumulus and six microphysics schemes, in addition to two experiments in which the cumulus parameterization was turned off, are tested in order to choose the combination that represents the event precipitation more accurately. ERA Interim is used as lateral boundary condition data for the downscaling procedure. Results show that convective schemes are more important than microphysics schemes for determining the precipitation areas within a high-resolution domain simulation. Also, while one cumulus scheme captures the overall spatial convective structure of the event more accurately than others, it fails to capture the precipitation intensity. This apparent discrepancy leads to sensitivity related to the verification method used to rank the scheme combinations. This sensitivity is also observed in a comparison between parameterized and explicit cumulus formation when the Kain-Fritsch scheme was used. A loss of added value is also found when the Grell-Freitas cumulus scheme was activated at 1 km grid spacing.
Highlights
Deep convection systems associated with sea breeze convergence are a common feature over the Cuban island during the May to October rainy season each year [1]
This paper evaluates the sensitivity to cumulus and microphysics schemes, as represented in numerical simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, in characterizing a deep convection event over the Cuban island on 1 May 2012
We first assessed the lateral boundary condition data (LBCs) to ensure that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is forced with meteorological data that accurately describe the synoptic situation for the case study
Summary
Deep convection systems associated with sea breeze convergence are a common feature over the Cuban island during the May to October rainy season each year [1]. Three recent publications have analyzed breeze convergence cases from a numerical perspective using explicit cumulus formation at 3 km grid spacing with the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model [2,3,4] They described and characterized particular types of sea breeze convergence and even highlighted how this phenomenon impacts the local atmospheric circulation. They did not analyze how it becomes an important forcing mechanism (such as the case of the Cuban island) leading to deep convection events where precipitation intensity and its spatial distribution are the most important features.
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