Nuclear prudence or nuclear psychosis? Structural realism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons

Abstract

With mounting concern over Iran's nuclear ambitions and the recent convening of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, nuclear proliferation has once again been elevated to the forefront of global security concerns. This article critically reviews the controversial theoretical arguments made by the two leading structural realists in the United States, Kenneth Waltz and John Mearsheimer, that the proliferation of nuclear weapons to new states will be beneficial for the maintenance of global security and assesses to what extent their ‘proliferation optimism’ has been validated by recent history. As the article argues, theoretical and empirical deficiencies within Waltz's and Mearsheimer's analyses render their optimistic scenarios regarding nuclear proliferation highly questionable. The dangers of nuclear proliferation are then illustrated by assessing the recent history of interstate military rivalry and conflict between two of the world's newest nuclear armed states, India and Pakistan.