NowPrecip: localized precipitation nowcasting in the complex terrain of Switzerland

Abstract

AbstractThe new precipitation nowcasting system “NowPrecip” is introduced and its methodology is described in detail. NowPrecip is an area‐tracking application, able to generate ensembles of precipitation nowcasts. It supports the paradigm of seamless forecasting: nowcasts start from the most recent radar observation and evolve smoothly, through merging, towards the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble members. NowPrecip relies on the following three pillars. (a) A geostatistics‐based optical flow algorithm, named “NowTrack”, able to determine the scales of interest automatically and equipped with an outlier control scheme. Such a scheme is particularly useful in capturing situations like fine‐scale rotation accurately. (b) A localized architecture motivated by the need to address scenarios where distinct rainfall patterns characterize different parts of the domain. This is mostly relevant for complex terrains like Switzerland, but is also useful for areal nowcasting operating on extensive regions. (c) Techniques to compute and incorporate localized growth and decay into the computation of nowcasts. This is especially useful for Alpine terrain, where there is often systematic growth and decay associated with orographic features. The growth and decay factors are based on analysis of the available NWP product, allowing for a more efficient coupling between the nowcasting sequence and the numerical model output. The main scope of this work is to present the methodology of NowPrecip in detail, but a verification of several representative events is also provided, using both deterministic and probabilistic measures.