Abstract
Looking at differences in electoral outcome in first- and second-order elections, there is only scant evidence that the second-order approach holds when translated to and tested on the micro level. We present a more nuanced framework that distinguishes between direct and indirect contextual effects as implicit elements of the original second-order approach. Applying our framework to Länder and federal elections in Germany, we show that electoral behavior does not differ—there is no direct effect of the second-order arena. However, the analysis makes a strong case for an indirect effect that refers to the importance of first-order factors for their second-order counterparts. The first-order arena strongly influences individuals’ perceptions of the second-order arena and this indeed speaks in favor of a substantively revised second-order approach.
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