Nordic Countries as an Opportunity for Sustainable, Low Pest Seed Potato Production in a Climate Change Scenario

Agriculture production is directly dependent on climate change and weather. Possible changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth and ultimately we lose our crop productivity and indirectly affect the sustainable food availability issue. The overall impact of climate change on worldwide food production is considered to be low to moderate with successful adaptation and adequate irrigation. Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth especially water, which sustains life on this planet. The global food security situation and outlook remains delicately imbalanced amid surplus food production and the prevalence of hunger, due to the complex interplay of social, economic, and ecological factors that mediate food security outcomes at various human and institutional scales. Weather aberration poses complex challenges in terms of increased variability and risk for food producers and the energy and water sectors. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the 21st century, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. Strategic research priorities are outlined for a range of sectors that underpin global food security, including: agriculture, ecosystem services from agriculture, climate change, international trade, water management solutions, the water-energy-food security nexus, service delivery to smallholders and women farmers, and better governance models and regional priority setting. There is a need to look beyond agriculture and invest in affordable and suitable farm technologies if the problem of food insecurity is to be addressed in a sustainable manner. Introduction Globally, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. This vulnerability is relatively higher in India in view of the large population depending on agriculture and poor coping capabilities of small and marginal farmers. Impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to food security. “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996). This definition gives rise to four dimensions of food security: availability of food, accessibility (economically and physically), utilization (the way it is used and assimilated by the human body) and stability of these three dimensions. According to the United Nations, in 2015, there are still 836 million people in the world living in extreme poverty (less than USD1.25/day) (UN, 2015). And according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), at least 70 percent of the very poor live in rural areas, most of them depending partly (or completely) on agriculture for their livelihoods. It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people, and in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa these small farms produce about 80 percent of the food consumed. Climate change threatens to reverse the progress made so far in the fight against hunger and malnutrition. As highlighted by the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), climate change augments and intensifies risks to food security for the most vulnerable countries and populations. Few of the major risks induced by climate change, as identified by IPCC have direct consequences for food security (IPCC, 2007). These are mainly to loss of rural livelihoods and income, loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, livelihoods loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems and food insecurity (breakdown of food systems). Rural farmers, whose livelihood depends on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. Most of the crop simulation model runs and experiments under elevated temperature and carbon dioxide indicate that by 2030, a 3-7% decline in the yield of principal cereal crops like rice and wheat is likely in India by adoption of current production technologies. Global warming impacts growth, reproduction and yields of food and horticulture crops, increases crop water requirement, causes more soil erosion, increases thermal stress on animals leading to decreased milk yields and change the distribution and breeding season of fisheries. Fast changing climatic conditions, shrinking land, water and other natural resources with rapid growing population around the globe has put many challenges before us (Mukherjee, 2014). Food is going to be second most challenging issue for mankind in time to come. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers (Christensen et al., 2007). Climate change is posing a great threat to agriculture and food security in India and it's subcontinent. Water is the most critical agricultural input in India, as 55% of the total cultivated areas do not have irrigation facilities. Currently we are able to secure food supplies under these varying conditions. Under the threat of climate variability, our food grain production system becomes quite comfortable and easily accessible for local people. India's food grain production is estimated to rise 2 per cent in 2020-21 crop years to an all-time high of 303.34 million tonnes on better output of rice, wheat, pulse and coarse cereals amid good monsoon rains last year. In the 2019-20 crop year, the country's food grain output (comprising wheat, rice, pulses and coarse cereals) stood at a record 297.5 million tonnes (MT). Releasing the second advance estimates for 2020-21 crop year, the agriculture ministry said foodgrain production is projected at a record 303.34 MT. As per the data, rice production is pegged at record 120.32 MT as against 118.87 MT in the previous year. Wheat production is estimated to rise to a record 109.24 MT in 2020-21 from 107.86 MT in the previous year, while output of coarse cereals is likely to increase to 49.36 MT from 47.75 MT. Pulses output is seen at 24.42 MT, up from 23.03 MT in 2019-20 crop year. In the non-foodgrain category, the production of oilseeds is estimated at 37.31 MT in 2020-21 as against 33.22 MT in the previous year. Sugarcane production is pegged at 397.66 MT from 370.50 MT in the previous year, while cotton output is expected to be higher at 36.54 million bales (170 kg each) from 36.07. This production figure seem to be sufficient for current population, but we need to improve more and more with vertical farming and advance agronomic and crop improvement tools for future burgeoning population figure under the milieu of climate change issue. Our rural mass and tribal people have very limited resources and they sometime complete depend on forest microhabitat. To order to ensure food and nutritional security for growing population, a new strategy needs to be initiated for growing of crops in changing climatic condition. The country has a large pool of underutilized or underexploited fruit or cereals crops which have enormous potential for contributing to food security, nutrition, health, ecosystem sustainability under the changing climatic conditions, since they require little input, as they have inherent capabilities to withstand biotic and abiotic stress. Apart from the impacts on agronomic conditions of crop productions, climate change also affects the economy, food systems and wellbeing of the consumers (Abbade, 2017). Crop nutritional quality become very challenging, as we noticed that, zinc and iron deficiency is a serious global health problem in humans depending on cereal-diet and is largely prevalent in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and South-east Asia. We report inefficiency of modern-bred cultivars of rice and wheat to sequester those essential nutrients in grains as the reason for such deficiency and prevalence (Debnath et al., 2021). Keeping in mind the crop yield and nutritional quality become very daunting task to our food security issue and this can overcome with the proper and time bound research in cognizance with the environment. Threat and challenges In recent years, climate change has become a debatable issue worldwide. South Asia will be one of the most adversely affected regions in terms of impacts of climate change on agricultural yield, economic activity and trading policies. Addressing climate change is central for global future food security and poverty alleviation. The approach would need to implement strategies linked with developmental plans to enhance its adaptive capacity in terms of climate resilience and mitigation. Over time, there has been a visible shift in the global climate change initiative towards adaptation. Adaptation can complement mitigation as a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks. The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects across societies and countries. Mitigation and adaptation actions can, if appropriately designed, advance sustainable development and equity both within and across countries and between generations. One approach to balancing the attention on adaptation and mitigation strategies is to compare the costs and benefits of both the strategies. The most imminent change is the increase in the atmospheric temperatures due to increase levels of GHGs (Green House Gases) i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc into the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperatures at the end of the 20th

Climate Resilient Villages for Sustainable Food Security in Tropical India: Concept, Process, Technologies, Institutions, and Impacts

The availability of food is the basic entity for the survival of human. The resources that make a nation food secured is guided by multiple factors and can be evaluated using a set of indicators. We present an assessment for ranking food security of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations represented by Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, the Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a set of indicators under the prevailing scenarios of climate change. The food security indicators can primarily be grouped into four dimensions represented by the availability of food, access to food, potential utilization and stability of food production. Each of the identified indicators that are independent of each other can be utilised to assign individual values based upon actual statistics and observations available for each country. The projection of these statistical values for evaluating future food security can also be done once the appropriate methodology is available for making projections. We assessed food security under the future scenarios of climate change for the year 2050 by synthesising a food security index using a set of indicators. The climate change scenarios were adopted from the IPCC (2014) assessment represented by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. The score of individual indicators were obtained from country specific statistics provided by Food and Agriculture Organisation, World Bank while the values of few indicators such as the projected availability of agriculture and forest land, estimates of future productivity under climate change scenarios and vulnerability of food production were synthesised by the authors for this study. The assessment shows that under all RCPs, Bangladesh is the most food secured nation followed by Sri Lanka. Whereas, Maldives and Afghanistan were found to fall under least food secured SAARC nation under all four scenarios of climate change. While rest of the nations had varying ranks and represented the middle-ranking of food security under all RCPs. India was consistently at the sixth position under all four scenarios of climate change followed by Afghanistan and Maldives in a consistent manner while Afghanistan maintained the rank of seventh and Maldives was found to fall at last position of eighth rank. The framework of assessment demonstrated by us can be used for ranking individual region while it provides an opportunity to the planners for allocating adequate resources and implement other adequate measures in regions that fall short in terms of food security.

Securing food under adverse climate and socioeconomic scenarios in Jiangsu Province, China: Critical role of human adaptation under change

Global Food Security—Introduction

Impacts of combined land-use and climate change on streamflow in two nested catchments in the Southeastern United States

Climate change is happening due to natural factors and human activities. It expressively alters biodiversity, agricultural production, and food security. Mainly, narrowly adapted and endemic species are under extinction. Accordingly, concerns over species extinction are warranted as it provides food for all life forms and primary health care for more than 60–80% of humans globally. Nevertheless, the impact of climate change on biodiversity and food security has been recognized, little is explored compared to the magnitude of the problem globally. Therefore, the objectives of this review are to identify, appraise, and synthesize the link between climate change, biodiversity, and food security. Data, climatic models, emission, migration, and extinction scenarios, and outputs from previous publications were used. Due to climate change, distributions of species have shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 m and 16.9 km per decade to higher latitudes. Accordingly, extinction rates of 1103 species under migration scenarios, provide 21–23% with unlimited migration and 38–52% with no migration. When an environmental variation occurs on a timescale shorter than the life of the plant any response could be in terms of a plastic phenotype. However, phenotypic plasticity could buffer species against the long-term effects of climate change. Furthermore, climate change affects food security particularly in communities and locations that depend on rain-fed agriculture. Crops and plants have thresholds beyond which growth and yield are compromised. Accordingly, agricultural yields in Africa alone could be decline by more than 30% in 2050. Therefore, solving food shortages through bringing extra land into agriculture and exploiting new fish stocks is a costly solution, when protecting biodiversity is given priority. Therefore, mitigating food waste, compensating food-insecure people conserving biodiversity, effective use of genetic resources, and traditional ecological knowledge could decrease further biodiversity loss, and meet food security under climate change scenarios. However, achieving food security under such scenario requires strong policies, releasing high-yielding stress resistant varieties, developing climate resilient irrigation structures, and agriculture. Therefore, degraded land restoration, land use changes, use of bio-energy, sustainable forest management, and community based biodiversity conservation are recommended to mitigate climate change impacts.

The potential consequences of climate change emanated from global warming are very alarming; the greatest concern is the potentially disastrous consequences on crop agriculture and food security in many parts of the world. Bangladesh is a country highly susceptible to climate change, but information in this regard is still inadequate. This study investigated the effects of climate change on three major crops – wheat, potato and rice – in the north-central region of Bangladesh. Two climate change scenarios, A2 and B2, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were generated by employing MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with the observed climate data of the region. The growth and yield of the crops were simulated using DSSAT CERES-Wheat, SUBSTOR-Potato and CERES-Rice models under the present and projected future changing climatic conditions. For a predicted 5.32oC increase in temperature in the year 2100, the yield of wheat, rice and potato would decrease by 47.6%, 67.8% and 38.6%, respectively. The increased temperature would accelerate physiological maturity of the crops as reflected by their reduced length of growing season (LGS) by 1.20% to 18.5%. The reduced LGS would reduce seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of the crops by shortening time-span for ET generation. Due to dominant yield reduction over ET reduction, the water use efficiency (WUE) for grain/tuber and biomass yields would decrease with the changing climate. The reduced crop yields are an indicative of a potential future risk of food security in Bangladesh. The results of this study can therefore guide to adopt coping mechanisms in the light of climate change to ensure future food security of the country. Keywords: climate change, DSSAT, MAGICC/SCENGEN model, CERES model, SUBSTOR model, growing season length, crop-water use DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20181104.3331 Citation: Rahman A, Mojid M A, Banu S. Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2018; 11(4): 135-143.

This discussion explores the opportunities and challenges in enhancing food production and security in the context of climatic variability in Sub Saharan Africa. The promotion of sustainable use of plant and animal products with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs, improving people’s standard of living, enhancing food security and reducing poverty have taken a center stage in Sub Saharan Africa. However, the efforts in this direction are being impacted negatively by climate change, through animal and crop production which have not been spared due to the natural disasters and environmental challenges which have affected all regions of Sub Saharan Africa indiscriminately. Climate is a particularly important driver of food production systems performance at the agriculture end of the food chain. It can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income especially for the poor resource farmers. In order to be able to adequately address food production and security in the context of climate, there is need for the region to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Supporting research and training of experts to carry out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on crop and livestock production is crucial in order for respective countries to develop climate change adaptation measures to meet the obligation on food production and security. Sub Saharan Africa’s agro-ecological regions are variable and need to develop specific adaptive measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Due to the changing climatic conditions which the continent has already witnessed many severe climatic induced vulnerability such as decline in rainfall amounts and intensity, reduced length of rain season and increasing warm and occasionally very hot conditions has affected food production and security. Crop and livestock production systems will need to adapt to higher ambient temperatures, lower nutritional value of feed resources and new diseases and parasites occurrence. It can be seen that the present crop and livestock production systems based on pastoral or rangeland grazing husbandry systems, ecological destruction through climatic variability and overgrazing due to high stocking rates in areas where feed and water has been compromised due to high temperatures caused by climate change does not augur well for future livestock productivity. The understanding of climate change variables and their impacts is the first step in climate change research and prerequisite for defining appropriate adaptive responses by local crop and livestock farmers. Sustainable crop and livestock production supporting rural development should be compatible with the goals of curbing the effects of climate change. Production priorities should be directed towards promoting local crop and livestock genetic resources by providing comprehensive research support services on the impact of climate change. Both crops and livestock play important roles in farming systems, as they offer opportunities for risk coping, farm diversification and intensification, and provide significant livelihood benefits and food security. The discussion therefore, concludes that the effectiveness of biophysical responses of crop and livestock production systems to specific environmental challenges that are anticipated as a result of climate change, and then the range of adaptive measures that might be taken by local producers to ameliorate their effects will be the prerequisite for defining appropriate societal responses and meet food security targets.

South Asia is home to nearly 22% of the world’s population, including 40% of the world’s poor. Agriculture plays a critical role in terms of employment and livelihood security for a large majority of people in all countries of the region. The region is prone to climatic extremes, which regularly impact agricultural production and farmers’ livelihood. Himalayan glaciers, a major source of water for the rivers in the Indo-Gangetic plains, are projected to significantly recede in future that could affect food and livelihood security of millions of people in Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh. Climate change is further projected to cause a 10–40% loss in crop production in the region by the end of the century. The increased climatic variability in future would further increase production variability. Producing enough food for the increasing population in a background of reducing resources in a changing climate scenario, while minimizing environmental degradation is a challenging task. Simple adaptation strategies such as changes in planting dates and varieties could help in reducing impacts of climate change to a limited extent. A Regional Adaptation and Mitigation Framework for South Asia is proposed that could assist the region in increasing its adaptive capacity to climate change. This includes assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks, intensifying food production systems, improving land, water and forests management, enabling policies and regional cooperation, and strengthening research in critical areas. South Asian agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, primarily due to methane emission from rice paddies, enteric fermentation in ruminant animals, and nitrous oxides from application of manures and fertilizers to soils. While a considerable fraction of this is inevitable, some reduction in emissions could be obtained by midseason drainage or alternate drying in irrigated rice, increasing nitrogen use efficiency and soil carbon, and improvements in livestock diet. Clear inclusion of agricultural GHG mitigation options in future international agreements would lead to improved soil fertility, higher income for the farmers, and food security.

The behaviour of water between the surface and subsurface is a dynamic and intricate process, involving a complex interplay between surface water and groundwater. This interaction is vital for supporting ecosystems, providing water supplies, and ensuring the sustainable use of water resources. Disruptions in these interactions, such as over-extraction, reduced streamflow, and the impacts of climate change, contribute to water scarcity. An integrated management of surface and groundwater resources is crucial for addressing these challenges and ensuring the long-term availability and sustainability of water supplies. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of surface and groundwater interactions were analysed using integrated SWAT and MODFLOW model using QSWATMOD plugin in QGIS software. The surface and groundwater interactions were analysed for future periods under climate and land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios. Pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon kharif, and post-monsoon rabi seasons are considered for analysing the surface and groundwater interactions. The future LULCs are projected using the DynaCLUE model for three user-defined scenarios such as past trend (scenario 1), drastic change in built-up and barren land (scenario 2), and restricted agricultural land (scenario 3). For projecting the interactions under both changing climate and LULC, LULC scenario 1 was used for near-future period, LULC scenario 2 for mid-future period, and LULC scenario 3 for far future period. Under the climate change scenario, the maximum groundwater recharge under SSP5-8.5 scenario is observed to be 20,805 m3/day in the near future, and the maximum discharge under SSP2-4.5 scenario is observed as 9,035 m3/day in the mid-future period. In both climate change and combined scenarios (both climate and user-defined LULC), there was a greater recharge of groundwater during the monsoon season relative to other seasons, while there was a greater discharge of groundwater during the post-monsoon rabi season. In the combined scenarios, the maximum discharge was under SSP5-8.5 with 15,009 m3/day in the mid-future, and the groundwater recharge was greater in the near future period under SSP3-7.0 with 19,556 m3/day. The groundwater–surface water interactions were analysed in four seasons, out of which monsoon season had the maximum recharge and groundwater discharge was more in the post-monsoon rabi season. The results found in this study’ can be used to plan and develop short-and long-term integrated surface and groundwater management strategies of the basin under changing climate and LULC.

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability

Challenge The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth’s temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere. Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security. Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries—2.5 billion people—relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas. This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being. This analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change: * In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit. * Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines. * Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption. * Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-change scenario—it will actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world. * By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percent relative to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change. * Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are needed to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children. from Text

Food security and economic welfare strongly depend on agricultural production, the loss of this production can be a serious challenge for food security and economic welfare. Agricultural production is also influenced by environmental and climatic factors so that the variations of climatic parameters can trigger extensive fluctuations in agricultural production. This study classifies climate changes into four scenarios of normal climate change (scenario 1), climate change (scenario 2), climate variability (scenario 3), and concurrent climate change (scenario 4). Then, economic welfare and food security are studied in each scenario for a 20-year period. We use data on costs and production of three crops – barley, potato, and maize – as three major agronomic plants that influence food security of Iran and the technique of positive mathematical programming. The results reveal the severe loss of acreage, farmer income, and producer and consumer welfare surplus and the increase in crop prices under four scenarios. In all calculation sections, scenarios 4, 2, 3 and 1 had the greatest impact on the studied variables, respectively. In scenarios 1 to 4, average acreage is 372.76, 270.3, 374 and 270 thousand ha and farmers’ net revenue is 24238.85, 19156.21, 24304.26 and 19143.11 billion IRR, respectively. The average price of the three studied crops under the four scenarios is 99.7, 125.65, 99.54 and 125.76 billion IRR, respectively. Also, in these scenarios, consumer welfare surplus will be 12286.8, 12072.91, 12277.87 and 12070.19 billion IRR and producer welfare surplus will be 13972.3, 13652.6, 13960.5 and 13648.8 billion IRR, respectively

The destabilizing impacts of climate change make mitigation measures a global imperative and urgent. The Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goal 13 give fresh impetus for climate change mitigation action. However, mitigation policies can have unintended consequences for food security. The current study assessed the impacts of UK climate mitigation policies on future food penalties (using feed barley and meat) and to highlight potential tele-coupled implications for transnational food security (especially in developing economies). Total barley production for the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s was obtained from simulated barley yields under three emissions scenarios (high, medium, and low; or HES, MES, and LES, respectively) and projected land area for barley production from the updated study on UK land use change under climate mitigation policies. Future demand for feed barley was obtained as a product of projected population and per capita demand. Feed barley equivalent meat production and demand were obtained using similar approach. The differences between future demand and supply were calculated for all combinations of climate change and land use scenarios. The results show that land area under climate mitigation scenarios would be 82–87% of the mean land area currently under barley production. Consequently, deficits in feed barley supply could range from 40 to 51% of total demand from the 2030s to the 2050s, while deficits in meat could be as high as 71% of total demand in the 2050s. As a result, the UK moves from its current position of net exporter of barley to a major net importer of barley or meat in the future. If current land area is maintained, maximum feed barley and meat deficits would be 44% and 65%, respectively, of total demand in the 2050s. For example, based on the middle of the road land use and climate change scenarios, together with projected 90th percentile yield, feed barley deficits in the UK would be 7102, 7548, and 7963 thousand tonnes for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s, respectively. The main sources of export of barley to the UK would have either excess domestic demand over supply or inadequate surplus to meet the fractional exports required to serve the UK deficit. Potentially increased imports by the UK from Ukraine, Germany, and France would require an adjustment in the trade flows to the current top importers from these countries as the UK’s share of import would increase from less than 1% currently to 13%, 32%, and 183%, respectively. The observed magnitude of deficits highlights adverse impacts of UK land-based climate mitigation policies on its food security, with potential consequences for transnational food security, especially in developing economies that rely on the global market for feed barley or meat supply.