Nonparametric Regression Modeling with Fourier Series Approach on Poverty Cases in West Sumatra Province

Abstract

Poverty is a complex problem that has an impact on various social problems such as education, unemployment, health and economic growth. Therefore, the problem of poverty is important to overcome in order to create population welfare. One of the analyses that can be used to model the percentage of poverty is regression analysis. Regression analysis is divided into two approaches, namely parametric and nonparametric. Parametric regression has several assumptions while, the only assumption nonparametric regression shape of the curve does not form a certain pattern. There are several approaches to nonparametric regression, one of which is the Fourier Series. The purpose of this study is to model the percentage of poverty in West Sumatra Province. The unclear shape of the curve in the data used is a consideration for using nonparametric regression. Then it is known that the data used in this study is data per region which tends to have a fluctuating nature. So it is suitable to use the Fourier series approach. In this research, nonparametric regression modeling with one, two, and three oscillation parameters was attempted. The best model was obtained which consisted of two oscillation parameters with a Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value of 2.110 and R² of 92.44%.