Abstract

Abstract In this study, based on the number of modes, the original three-dimensional Lorenz model (3DLM) is generalized with two additional modes [five-dimensional Lorenz model (5DLM)] to examine their role in the predictability of the numerical solutions and to understand the underlying processes that increase the solution stability. As a result of the simplicity of the 5DLM with respect to existing generalized Lorenz models (LMs), the author is able to obtain the analytical solutions of its critical points and identify the role of the major nonlinear term in the solution’s stability, which have previously not been documented in the literature. The nonlinear Jacobian terms of the governing equations are analyzed to highlight the importance of selecting new modes for extending the nonlinear feedback loop of the 3DLM and thus effectively increasing the degree of nonlinearity (i.e., the nonlinear mode–mode interactions) in the 5DLM. It is then shown that numerical solutions in the 5DLM require a larger normalized Rayleigh number r for the onset of chaos and are more predictable than those in the 3DLM when r is between 25 and 40 and the Prandtl number σ is 10. The improved predictability is attributable to the negative nonlinear feedback enabled by the new modes. The role of the (negative) nonlinear feedback is further verified using a revised 3DLM with a parameterized nonlinear eddy dissipative term. The finding of the increased stability in the 5DLM and revised 3DLM with respect to the 3DLM is confirmed with the linear stability analysis and the analysis of the Lyapunov exponents using different values of r and σ. To further understand the impact of an additional heating term, results from the 5DLM and a higher-dimensional LM [e.g., the six-dimensional LM (6DLM)] are analyzed and compared.

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