Abstract
Significance The comfortable lead for the 'no' camp (59% to 41%), together with the high turnout (66%), constitutes a clear defeat for Renzi. The political and economic consequences are uncertain: the reform was designed to put an end to the country's endemic political instability and resulting ineffectiveness in tackling the structural but painful reforms Italy needs. It is uncertain how this process will be restarted. Impacts In light of his clear defeat, Renzi's resignation is likely to be irrevocable. The new caretaker government will be in a weak position vis-a-vis the EU on issues such as the migrant crisis and the budget. The M5S and smaller parties may be in favour of a proportional electoral system, while larger parties may prefer a majoritarian system.
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