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No Longer Under the American Wing? The Thai Monarchy in Global Affairs

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TL;DR

During the Cold War, the Thai monarchy, especially under King Bhumibol, played a key role in stabilizing Thailand and aligning with U.S. security interests, but post-Cold War, especially under King Vajiralongkorn, the monarchy has become more internally focused with diminished international engagement, indicating that foreign alliances are now less relevant to its domestic stability.

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During the Cold War period, the Thai monarchy, under the reign of King Bhumibol Adulyadej (1946–2016), was recognised for its role in stabilising Thailand, which in turn was crucial to stem the tide of communism in Southeast Asia. Bhumibol’s active diplomacy was a part of the political alliance between the Thai monarchy and the United States. Together, they closely cooperated to confront a variety of threats against the monarchy, from political opponents at home to communists across the borders. For the United States, allying with the Thai monarchy fulfilled its security mission in Southeast Asia. But the end of the Cold War diminished this political alliance. The arrival of King Vajiralongkorn in 2016 and his seeming disengagement in diplomacy suggest that international support for the throne has become redundant. Vajiralongkorn, set free from Cold War obligations, has been increasingly detached from foreign affairs because the main focus of the throne has been solely on internal security. Vajiralongkorn’s position reaffirms that political alliance is today irrelevant because it no longer serves the palace’s domestic purposes.

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This book should command the attention of all Cold War historians. It is a book of prodigious research and immense erudition. Lorenz Lüthi has visited archives in the United States, England, Russia, China, Australia, India, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Austria, among other places. His aim is noteworthy: to “de-center” the Cold War. He argues that, for the most part, developments in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe had roots not in the global Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union but in “structural” changes in each of these regions that presaged the Cold War's end. He rejects the triumphalist narrative of some U.S. writers, minimizes the role of President Ronald Reagan, and claims that Mikhail Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union, did not want to end the Cold War and instead yearned to win that conflict. Overall, Lüthi stresses the agency of local actors and regional dynamics and claims that the capacity of Moscow and Washington to shape events was circumscribed by “decolonization, Asian-African Internationalism, pan-Arabism, pan-Islamism, Arab-Israeli hostility, and European economic developments” (p. 1).Despite the ambition and learning that inform every page of this tome, the book is beset with interpretive ambiguities and conceptual problems. Lüthi argues that the Cold War was not predetermined but was the collective result of “ideological clashes, unilateral decisions, political disagreements, and misperceptions” (p. 13). Its origins rest in the desires of the USSR to “overthrow the imperialist-capitalist world system and the establishment of a stateless and classless society across the globe” (p. 3). In contrast to Odd Arne Westad's The Cold War: A World History (New York; Basic Books, 2017), Lüthi pays scant attention to the economic contradictions within global capitalism in the late nineteenth century, the cyclical fluctuations of business cycles in the early twentieth century, the rise of the Left, the yearnings for structural change within capitalism, and the disillusionment spawned by two world wars and the Great Depression. Rather, Lüthi's focus is on imperial aspirations and ideological conflict. He elides geostrategic motivations, the underlying dynamics of global capitalism, and the legacy of World War II. He does not explain that controlling German power in Europe and harnessing Japanese power in Asia were key components of the global Cold War as well as the regional Cold Wars in Europe and Asia. He does not show how the perceived structural dynamics of global capitalism impelled policymakers in North American, Europe, and Japan to focus on integrating the core industrial areas of global capitalism with markets and raw materials in the “periphery”; that is, in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa. He does not illustrate how socioeconomic unrest and political turmoil stemming from the Great Depression and World War II created perceptions of threat and opportunity in Moscow and Washington that set the conditions for the Cold War.The great attribute of this volume is Lüthi's detailed description of developments in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Cold War historians will be surprised by his decision to place developments in the Middle East at the forefront of the volume (chapter two), even while he argues that the Cold War did not come to the Middle East until the Suez crisis (chapters 8–10). The Middle East commands initial attention because Lüthi focuses on the legacy of British imperialism and the desires of officials in London to remake their empire in the aftermath of World War II with the help of the Arab League. In this context, Lüthi luminously describes inter-Arab dynamics, Arab-Israeli hostilities, and the rise of pan-Islamism. He stresses Anwar el-Sadat's desire to expel Soviet influence from Egypt, the complex dynamics spawned by the Palestinian quest for statehood, and the repercussions of the Iranian revolution. By the early 1980s, he writes, “the Cold War ceased to be the critical structure that shaped the regional system in the Middle East” (p. 518). But it is not clear what he means by the “regional system,” or whether the Cold War had ever shaped it. It is also not clear what constituted the regional Cold War in the Middle East when so many of the wars were hot, not cold. 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Perhaps Lüthi would argue that Japan lacked agency, but even if that was the case the country was crucial to the trajectory of the Vietnam War and the U.S. role in it. Numerous historians—Howard Schonberger, Michael Schaller, Andrew Rotter, William Borden, and Robert Blum, among others—have shown in great detail how the goal of reconstructing and stabilizing Japan impelled U.S. officials to thwart Communist gains in Southeast Asia, create an independent South Vietnam, establish the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, and support the rightwing military coup, crackdown, and massacres in Indonesia. While ignoring these dimensions of the Asian Cold War, Lüthi presents fascinating chapters on China, Vietnam, and India, on Asian-African internationalism, and on nonalignment. He shows that the Asian Cold War had many manifestations and permutations. At different times, in different ways, these trajectories affected the U.S.-Soviet global conflict and were influenced by that conflict. 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Expanding Horizons in Southeast Asia?
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U.S. President Donald Trump's “America First” posture has visibly disdained alliance- building as a central component of U.S. foreign policy. In the Asia-Pacific, this has undermined what Robert Kaplan (2019) has characterized as “the mutual confidence and implicit understandings that joined the United States with its allies in Asia.” The postwar regional security order in this region, underpinned by the U.S. bilateral security alliance network, is instead being sharply challenged by both the rise of China as a peer competitor and by the American public's intensifying fatigue—exploited by a transactional American President—resulting from maintaining credible deterrence and security guarantees to Eurasian allies for nearly three-quarters of a century. Trump's approach to alliance politics emphasizes more allied self-reliance in confronting national security threats and unparalleled U.S. expectations regarding allied defense expenditures and burden-sharing. 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While structural change in the region was already widely evident when that study was printed, the “Trump factor,” combined with the unexpected speed in the growth of China's military prowess and the intensification of its geopolitical dynamism, compelled this project's organizers to undertake updated assessments of the San Francisco System's fundamental credibility and sustainability. These unfolded at a project workshop which was convened in Singapore during late April 2019. Apart from the article contributors (whose work is summarized below), the event attracted the participation of officials from those countries aligned within the San Francisco System framework and independent scholars and analysts whose work specializes on alliance politics in Asia. This issue's lead article, co-authored by William T. Tow and Md Zaidul Anwar Hj Md Kasim, argues that the San Francisco System remains operative and viable despite Trump's intercession into the traditional American management of alliance politics. To remain so, however, American policymakers in the Trump administration and beyond will need to manage a more diverse and complex set of regional security challenges in ways that combine judicious threat response with creative order-building. The implication of this requirement is clear: Washington will need at some point to engage in various forms of regional multilateral security politics to a substantially greater extent than Trump and his team originally surmised when assuming office in early 2017. The second part of this issue probes the alliance and security partnership perspectives in Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Southeast Asia, and Australia, respectively. 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This Chinese strategy will intensify regardless of the outcome of current diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula and it underscores the need for policymakers in San Francisco System member-states to recognize and adjust to the intensifying complexity of security politics in the region. Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby adopts a theoretical perspective based on norm-building in alliance politics to explain the ongoing development of U.S. alliance relationships with the Philippines and Thailand and security partnerships with Singapore and Vietnam. She asserts that the San Francisco System's hub-and-spokes model is not failing but is experiencing “applicatory contestation” which U.S. policymakers must recognize and accommodate. Preservation of the international liberal order is the most important precondition for preserving the San Francisco System's credibility at a time when Chinese and other rival visions of order-building are vying for greater legitimacy. Brendan Taylor shows, however, that the stresses and strains currently being experienced in the San Francisco System are not solely the product of the Trump administration's perceived shortcomings and idiosyncrasies. Using a case study of one of America's most steadfast allies, Australia, he documents how the domestic political dynamics and debates of America's junior allies are also complicating U.S. strategy. Echoing the thrust of Misalucha-Willoughby's focus upon the need for alliance adaptation, Taylor's contribution highlights yet another set of challenges to the San Francisco System's future viability that its managers must urgently acknowledge. Finally, in their concluding article to this special issue, Sarah Teo and Ralf Emmers concur with Tow's and Kasim's judgment that the hub-and-spokes framework underwriting the San Francisco System is likely to persist but in somewhat modified form. However, they offer three caveats to the above generalization: the alliance network is likely to become more informal, more selectively interconnected, and characterized by more insecurity felt by both the United States and its allies toward one another. Greater informality would lower the pressure by U.S. allies in the region to make a fateful “choice” between a China growing stronger and a United States that may become increasingly qualified on the types of security guarantees it will extend to allies and partners over time. The principal investigators for this project (Tow and Taylor) acknowledge the financial support of the Korea Foundation Global Networking Department (Grant 270) in facilitating the research underlying it. This study was also partially supported through the Bualuang ASEAN Chair Professorship from Thammasat University and Bangkok Bank (to Professor Tow). 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Southeast Asia and the United States
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The U.S. relationship with Southeast Asia has always reflected the state of U.S. interactions with the three major powers that surround the region: Japan, China, and, to a lesser extent, India. Initially, Americans looked at Southeast Asia as an avenue to the rich markets that China and India seemed to offer, while also finding trading opportunities in the region itself. Later, American missionaries sought to save Southeast Asian souls, while U.S. officials often viewed Southeast Asia as a region that could tip the overall balance of power in East Asia if its enormous resources fell under the control of a hostile power. American interest expanded enormously with the annexation of the Philippines in 1899, an outgrowth of the Spanish-American War. That acquisition resulted in a nearly half-century of American colonial rule, while American investors increased their involvement in exploiting the region’s raw materials, notably tin, rubber, and petroleum, and missionaries expanded into areas previously closed to them. American occupation of the Philippines heightened tensions with Japan, which sought the resources of Southeast Asia, particularly in French Indochina, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies (today’s Indonesia). Eventually, clashing ambitions and perceptions brought the United States into World War II. Peeling those territories away from Japan during the war was a key American objective. Americans resisted the Japanese in the Philippines and in Burma, but after Japan quickly subdued Southeast Asia, there was little contact in the region until the reconquest began in 1944. American forces participated in the liberation of Burma and also fought in the Dutch Indies and the Philippines before the war ended in 1945. After the war, the United States had to face the independence struggles in several Southeast Asian countries, even as the Grand Alliance fell apart and the Cold War emerged, which for the next several decades overshadowed almost everything. American efforts to prevent communist expansion in the region inhibited American support for decolonization and led to war in Vietnam and Laos and covert interventions elsewhere. With the end of the Cold War in 1991, relations with most of Southeast Asia have generally been normal, except for Burma/Myanmar, where a brutal military junta ruled. The opposition, led by the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi, found support in the United States. More recently American concerns with China’s new assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea, have resulted in even closer U.S. relations with Southeast Asian countries.

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  • Political Science
  • Deepak Nair

Situated at the geographic and cultural crossroads of China and India, Southeast Asia has historically attracted the attention of larger powers and has been a site for several experiments in self-determination, regional autonomy, and order building. The region has featured prominently in global processes past and present: from colonial rule in its various Euro-American and Japanese permutations, and decolonization in revolutionary and neo-colonial stripes, to the three Indochina Wars that spanned the arc of the Global Cold War, and a new era of Sino-US Great Power competition. These historical experiences inform the themes that structure the academic study of Southeast Asia’s international relations. These include: the foreign policies of the regions’ states vis-à-vis one another and the outside world, the involvements of the Great Powers, and diplomatic projects spearheaded by Southeast Asian elites to express their vision for regional order. A conspicuous feature of the International Relations (IR) scholarship on Southeast Asia is the dominance of often apolitical and indeed depoliticizing “regionalism studies” centered on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—the region’s most enduring project in multilateral diplomacy created during the Cold War. Notwithstanding its significance, the focus on ASEAN and regionalism has been arguably excessive. It has led to a fixation with narrow theoretical debates centered on ASEAN and has stymied a wider exploration of the region’s international politics drawing on area studies, international history, foreign policy analysis, and political sociology which would shine the spotlight on how colonialism, race, gender, class, emotions, populism, trade, political parties, interest groups, state-society relations etc. have shaped the regions international politics. Indeed, some of the more exciting new scholarship on the international relations of Southeast has been emerging in other disciplines and fields, namely, Cold War international history, comparative politics, and new currents in IR inspired by political sociology and microsociology. This article outlines these new literatures with a view to open the study of international relations in Southeast Asia in historical, theoretical, and substantive terms. This essay is divided into nine sections. Following General Overviews, the section Colonial Legacies looks to the colonial period to understand patterns of class and identity formation that have structured contemporary fault lines in regional relations. Decolonization, Cold War, and the Emergence of a Southeast Asian International System foregrounds how Cold War international pressures internationalized decolonization struggles and shaped the birth (and splintering) of Southeast Asia’s post-colonial international system. The Indochina Wars highlights the pitched “hot” battles of the Cold War that unfolded in Southeast Asia, most famously as the three Indochina Wars. Diplomacy: From SEATO and Bandung to ASEAN examines the diverse diplomatic responses by Southeast Asian elites—including Bandung and ASEAN—in crafting a preferred vision for regional order. Foreign Policy surveys some of the key works in the genre of foreign policy analyses of Southeast Asia’s major states. Southeast Asian Security in the Era of United States-China Rivalry examines a body of conceptually innovative literature on how the region’s small and middle powers have responded to the escalating post–Cold War rivalry between the United States and China. In the First Image: Biographies and Memoirs foregrounds the large but underutilized genre of biography and memoir on Southeast Asia’s diplomatic players, a resource that could be better integrated with emerging “first-image” studies in IR. The final section identifies some of the major journals and platforms for online commentary that serve the study of Southeast Asia’s international politics.

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