Abstract
Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year−1. The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C−1 to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm−1 to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C−1 by winter warming and 0.56 day °C−1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.
Highlights
IntroductionMany studies based on direct human observations of vegetation have indicated strong phenological responses to climate during recent decades (Fu et al 2014a; Menzel et al 2006; Chmielewski and Rötzer 2001)
Consistent estimates of plant phenology over continuous spatial and temporal domains are essential for quantifying climateElectronic supplementary material The online version of this article contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.Statistics, Lund University, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden 4 Materials Science and Applied Mathematics, Malmö University, SE-20506 Malmö, Sweden change impacts on ecosystems (Walther et al 2002; IPCC 2014) and for understanding the mechanistic basis of phenology (Pau et al 2011) and interactions among involved biotic and abiotic factors (Richardson et al 2013)
We found that the spring phenology trends were spatially diverse and on average advanced at a rate of − 0.30 day year−1 at northern European latitudes for the period 2000–2016
Summary
Many studies based on direct human observations of vegetation have indicated strong phenological responses to climate during recent decades (Fu et al 2014a; Menzel et al 2006; Chmielewski and Rötzer 2001). Across Europe, the advancement of spring phenology matched the warming pattern during 1971–2000 (Menzel et al 2006). Over western Europe, continued advancement of the start of the growing season (SOS) has been observed, including the two recent decades (Fu et al 2014a). Satellite observations are invaluable for complementing these point scale studies and investigating broad-scale phenology variations, allowing for regional and global studies of climate impact and sensitivities. Several recent studies of spring phenology based on satellite data have produced
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