New Players, Old Roles? Africa and Latin America in the Global Race for Critical Minerals

Knowledge mapping of research on securing the supply chain for critical minerals: A scientometrics and text mining approach

ASEAN plays an increasingly prominent role in the global supply of critical minerals essential for the energy transition, defence industries, medicine, and advanced manufacturing. Yet the region’s long-term position in critical mineral supply chains remains uncertain, constrained by severe environmental degradation, strategic dependencies, and institutional fragmentation. This study addresses the following central research question: How can ASEAN as a region transition from a fragmented group of critical mineral exporters to a strategically coordinated and sustainable player in global supply chains? The article offers a novel contribution to the literature by analysing three ASEAN member states’ critical mineral strategies and governance approaches with a tripartite framework tailored to ASEAN’s diverse critical minerals governance landscape. Specifically, it draws on illustrative cases from Indonesia (nickel), Myanmar (rare earth mining), and Malaysia (rare earth processing) to highlight the trade-offs and coordination challenges that define the region’s positioning in global supply chains. The analysis is structured around three interlinked imperatives: environmental sustainability, supply chain autonomy and resilience, and regional coordination and governance alignment. While Indonesia has pursued aggressive downstream integration, its strategy is undermined by environmental issues and foreign ownership. Myanmar exemplifies the environmental and strategic vulnerabilities of informal, extraction-based supply chains, while Malaysia demonstrates the potential for midstream value addition under more stable institutional conditions. The study concludes that ASEAN’s ability to assert a more cohesive and strategic role in global critical minerals markets will depend on its capacity to align national priorities with regional coordination, enhance environmental and ESG performance, and diversify investment and processing capabilities away from China-dominated supply chains.

Energy storage is a foundational clean energy technology that can enable transformative technologies and lower carbon emissions, especially when paired with renewable energy. However, clean energy transition technologies need completely different supply chains than our current fuel-based supply chains. These technologies will instead require a material-based supply chain that extracts and processes massive amounts of minerals, especially critical minerals, which are classified by how essential they are for the modern economy. In order to develop, operate, and optimize the new material-based supply chain, new decision-making frameworks and tools are needed to design and navigate this new supply chain and ensure we have the materials we need to build the energy system of tomorrow. This work creates a flexible mathematical optimization framework for critical mineral supply chain analysis that, once provided with exogenously supplied projections for parameters such as demand, cost, and carbon intensity, can provide an efficient analysis of a mineral or critical mineral supply chain. To illustrate the capability of the framework, this work also conducts a case study investigating the global lithium supply chain needed for energy storage technologies like electric vehicles (EVs). The case study model explores the investment and operational decisions that a global central planner would consider in order to meet projected lithium demand in one scenario where the objective is to minimize cost and another scenario where the objective is to minimize CO2 emissions. The case study shows there is a 6% cost premium to reduce CO2 emissions by 2%. Furthermore, the CO2 Objective scenario invested in recycling capacity to reduce emissions, while the Cost Objective scenario did not. Lastly, this case study shows that even with a deterministic model and a global central planner, asset utilization is not perfect, and there is a substantial tradeoff between cost and emissions. Therefore, this framework—when expanded to less-idealized scenarios, like those focused on individual countries or regions or scenarios that optimize other important evaluation metrics—would yield even more impactful insights. However, even in its simplest form, as presented in this work, the framework illustrates its power to model, optimize, and illustrate the material-based supply chains needed for the clean energy technologies of tomorrow.

Critical minerals are vital to national economic development and indispensable to strategic emerging industries. In the upstream of these strategic industries, critical minerals supply chain are at risk of supply interruption, which affects the supply security of these crucial industries. How to evaluate and improve the resilience of the critical mineral supply chain has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper combs through the relevant research on the resilience of critical mineral supply chain. It divides the research into two major categories: evaluation of supply chain resilience and critical mineral supply chain, forming a literature review. The research results of relevant scholars are elaborated on respectively. Further summaries of critical mineral supply chain resilience and future research direction are put forward.

Throughout Earth’s history, powerful geological processes have shaped the planet, formed diverse landscapes, and hidden valuable resources. Like silent architects, these processes play a crucial role in creating the world we see today. One important aspect of this geological story is the formation of critical minerals—essential elements for modern technology. These minerals are not random features but are closely tied to the larger narrative of Earth’s evolution. Scientists and engineers are exploring the connections between geological processes and the creation of critical mineral deposits to understand better how to identify, extract, and produce these deposits to help meet the demand for resources considered the building blocks of an electrified future. Used in various applications, from energy production and national defense to transportation and communication technologies (think batteries for electric vehicles, permanent magnets for wind turbine generators), critical minerals are defined as non-fuel minerals or mineral materials essential to economic or national security and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest Critical Minerals Market Review, reported that the record deployment of clean energy technologies has propelled the huge demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. “From 2017 to 2022, the energy sector was the main factor behind a tripling in overall demand for lithium, a 70% jump in demand for cobalt, and a 40% rise in demand for nickel,” the report said. “The market for energy transition minerals reached $320 billion in 2022 and is set for continued rapid growth, moving it increasingly to center stage for the global mining industry.” In the US, critical mineral supply chains are heavily dependent on imports. In 2021, the US was 100% import-reliant for 14 of the 50 critical minerals identified by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in 2022. Additionally, according to the USGS, most of the critical minerals that are essential for meeting decarbonization goals have a net import reliance of greater than 50%. Securing Supply of Rare Earth Elements Critical minerals categorized as rare earth elements (REE) are particularly important to reaching decarbonization goals. With a name reminiscent of science fiction superheroes, the lanthanides are a series of 15 elements—plus scandium and yttrium—collectively regarded as REE. REEs range from light (LREE) to heavy (HREE). While not geologically rare, extraction and processing are complex, expensive, and environmentally hazardous. In addition to being a leading source of critical minerals gallium, germanium, and graphite, China dominates REE production and processing. According to a report by The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the country is home to some of the most productive and lowest-cost REE-containing geological formations, which the government has been developing since the 1970s. China holds 37% of the world’s REE reserves, as compared to the US, which held only 1% of the reserves in 2019. US critical mineral supply chains have the potential to be disrupted by adverse foreign actions, pandemics, natural disasters, and other global events. For this reason, developing domestic resources to secure supply chains and meet future critical mineral demand has become a national priority, with the signing of Executive Order No. 14017 by US President Joe Biden in February 2021.

Critical minerals are the cornerstone of the new round of the industrial revolution. The global division of labor established under the traditional technology, industry, and trade systems is facing a significant restructuring. Global economic and technological changes will lead to a long-term increase in demand for critical minerals. The critical minerals supply chain is rife with political interference and distorted trade practices compared to the robust resource demand. It faces several challenges that threaten the sustainability of the supply chain. We analyze the evolving security connotation of critical minerals supply chains. We also provide an overview of research on quantifying risks of critical minerals from two aspects: security evaluation mechanism and global value chain. The interdisciplinary research techniques and methods are more adapted to the new trends of international competition in critical minerals. The article reviews relevant security risk identification and response research in critical minerals supply chains. It analyzes how to address the risk challenges from national strategies. Finally, the article explores new trends under new technological revolution and industrial change.

The rapid growth of electric vehicles adoption, which plays a crucial role to reduce transportation carbon emissions, is leading to a surge in demand for critical minerals such as cobalt, nickel, lithium, and rare earths. Efforts to systematically address the emerging sustainability issues associated with critical minerals have been challenged by complex mineral supply chains, and the distal and geographically dispersed nature of social-ecological impacts from mineral extraction and processing and eventual use. In this review, we apply a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the 2010–2020 period to analyze the state of research on the issues of critical mineral extraction impacts and the global governance responses. We use the concept of telecoupling to structure our literature search and analysis across four themes: (a) critical minerals global trade and supply chain, (b) sustainability and resource policy and governance, (c) mining corporate social responsibility, and (d) information feedback and public discourse. We find a growing attention to the social-ecological implications of critical mineral extraction, but also fragmentation among thematic domains that could impede progress towards more coordinated system governance. Based on the analyses, the paper concludes with a definition of some research and engagement opportunities around the telecoupling themes.

Friend-shoring and critical minerals: Exploring the role of the Minerals Security Partnership

The accelerated global transition toward low-carbon energy systems has greatly amplified demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare-earth elements, drawing unprecedented attention to Africa’s abundant reserves. Intensifying geopolitical rivalry has prompted many states to recalibrate mineral policies in pursuit of supply-chain security. Against this backdrop, an observable resurgence of resource nationalism has driven African governments to tighten control over minerals and increase domestic revenue. Employing case-study and policy-analysis approach, this article traces the conceptual evolution of resource nationalism and interrogates its contemporary manifestations across selected African jurisdictions. It systematically examines fiscal instruments, legislative revisions and cooperative frameworks adopted by leading producer countries. The findings indicate that today’s African resource nationalism departs from earlier waves of wholesale nationalization: policymakers now seek a delicate equilibrium amid great-power competition, deploy price-responsive and finely calibrated interventions, and forge transnational partnerships among states with convergent interests. The analysis also identifies persistent vulnerabilities—political turnover, security threats, technological deficits and escalating ESG compliance costs—that could undermine policy efficacy. This study aims to explore the characteristics and impacts of key mineral policies in African countries under the influence of resource nationalism, providing references for transnational capital to identify policy risks and for African countries to optimize resource governance, thereby contributing to the fairness and sustainable development of the global critical mineral supply chain.

Advanced technologies are inherently dependent on critical minerals and their related metals. The mining extraction of these critical minerals leads to significant social and environmental impacts that extend beyond the regions where those advanced technologies are ultimately used. This study explores the global socio-environmental challenges arising from the European Climate Law's aim for net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050, focusing on the EU's consumption of critical minerals. Developing a novel methodology based on Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model, enriched with detailed mineral production data from specific ore-to-mineral ratios and socio-environmental information, this work assesses the impacts of the EU's mineral consumption within its energy transition framework. This innovative approach extends beyond ore extraction to encompass all stages of the supply chain. Key findings indicate that the continental Europe accounts for 60% of the EU's ore extraction footprint, yet only 35% of the mineral footprint for the 34 analyzed critical minerals. In contrast, Africa's and South America's shares are 12% and 29%, respectively, markedly higher than attributed in previous studies. The study highlights challenges in securing these minerals, including potential usage conflicts and increased mining in water-scarce basins within Australia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Chile, hence exacerbating environmental and community issues. Furthermore, the research suggests that achieving the EU's climate goals could expose between 15 and 89,000 African miners to increased modern slavery vulnerabilities by 2040. However, adherence to the EU Green Deal principles could mitigate these risks and recommendations are proposed, including diversifying mineral supply chains, establishing partnerships with countries that maintain high socio-environmental standards, and adopting circular economy paradigms and innovative solutions. This study advocates its new methodological development to build comprehensive strategies balancing climate goals with the global socio-environmental effects of critical mineral extraction, especially in developing countries.

This review explores the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in critical mineral exploration, examining key challenges and opportunities. Global decarbonisation efforts are driving a significant increase in the demand for critical minerals, intensifying the need to find new deposits, improve operational efficiencies and diversify global mineral supply capabilities. Challenges encountered in critical mineral exploration, such as increasingly complex geological settings in new exploration, declining ore grades and the need for sustainable practices, are calling for a more comprehensive analysis of a diverse set of aspects, including large geoscientific and economic datasets, as well as Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) considerations. Traditional methods of analysing such extensive information are time-intensive, expensive and often result in lower predictability. This, combined with the growing need for faster and more accurate decision-making, has driven the adoption of innovative approaches such as AI-based techniques that bring vast amounts of multifaceted information into the analysis. Integrating AI applications in the exploration of critical minerals is bringing rapid transformation to the sector, driving new trends in the market dynamics. AI methodologies, Machine Learning (ML) and AI-enabled data analytics are improving the predictive modelling and automation of exploration studies and allowing enhanced decision-making capabilities. The shift towards data-driven strategies allows the use of both new and previously underutilised datasets owned by the companies, leading to better assessments of the project viability, more effective and rapid evaluation of a wide range of datasets for exploration potential and identification of opportunities for cost reduction. These advancements influence risk identification and management, bring strategic shifts in the critical minerals market and global supply chains and offer valuable insights to stakeholders shaping investment patterns. Challenges in the application of AI in critical mineral exploration include data requirements, technical complexity and ethical and regulatory concerns. Recognising AI’s vast potential, extensive research and development efforts are underway, focussing on refining AI algorithms, developing novel approaches to integrate with geoscientific data, promoting collaboration between geoscientists and AI experts and addressing the ethical, regulatory and ESG considerations.

Within a geopolitical landscape often framed as a nascent cold war between the United States and China, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is increasingly pivoting towards the Global South, especially Africa and Latin America. This shift comes amid an increase in new competitive infrastructural initiatives, such as the US‐led G7 coalition's Partnership for Global Investments and Infrastructures. This article explores the transformations of the BRI and what was its nascent rival under Biden administration, with a particular focus on the Lobito Corridor, which Trump seems to be supporting too for mineral access. It examines the motivations and strategies of the United States, China, and beneficiary nations, and how dynamics between them may unfold. The study finds that the Lobito Corridor exemplifies how the United States was re‐entering African infrastructure markets, challenging China's dominance by targeting critical supply chains. The conclusion posits that this corridor signaled a strategic shift in global infrastructure competition, with the United States leveraging it to reassert influence in Africa, potentially recalibrating China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains.

This study presents the authors’ perspective on Kazakhstan’s position during the shift in global competition from hydrocarbon extraction to the race for critical mineral resources in the context of the global energy transition. Describing the response of Kazakhstan’s mining industry to this challenge, the authors offer developing countries a theoretical and practical framework for formulating a new strategy aimed at minimizing environmental impact and finding new ways to create the necessary conditions for the functioning of the rare earth metals industry. This strategy takes into account not only the prerequisites but also the restraining factors for its development against the backdrop of a changing geoeconomic landscape. The study demonstrates that the growing importance of critical minerals to the global economy, coupled with limited access to them for many countries, could shift Kazakhstan’s position. There is an opportunity not only to conduct responsible exploration, extraction, and processing of critical minerals and to establish a full technological cycle to meet domestic demand, but also for the country to carve out a niche as a global player in the high-tech industry. Kazakhstan could integrate into international technological supply chains, thereby strengthening its strategic autonomy and enhancing its perception by the international community as a key region supplying critical minerals to the global market. In a context where geopolitical factors, including regional conflicts, are increasing the importance of transcontinental routes and strategic raw materials, the authors’ proposals may be useful for countries with transitional economies in developing plans to diversify sources of critical mineral supplies. A promising area for future research is the study of the role of junior mining companies as new players in the resource extraction sector, as well as expanding their involvement in critical mineral supply chains to strengthen Kazakhstan’s strategic position within the new energy paradigm.

Global critical mineral production patterns differ markedly across the metals needed for advanced energy technologies. This study examines the extraction and processing landscape, in the year 2024, of six key commodities—lithium, cobalt, aluminum, nickel, manganese, and copper—to identify who the major players (countries and corporations) are in the critical mineral space and to understand what they are mining, where they are mining, and where are they sending their ore to be processed. This study aims to provide a snapshot of the critical mineral supply chain that serves as a useful resource for researchers and policymakers seeking to understand and improve the critical mineral supply chain. We analyze company financial filings, government datasets, and other public and proprietary sources for the year 2024. Then, we calculate production volumes and identify geographic and corporate concentration. The results show that copper and aluminum production and processing are relatively diverse, while lithium and cobalt extraction and processing are highly concentrated among a few countries and dominant firms. Nickel and manganese occupy an intermediate position, displaying moderate diversity with emerging signs of consolidation.

We examine the geoeconomic strategies of the US regarding critical minerals through the lens of geopolitical rivalry with China. Chinese companies, mostly state-owned enterprises, play a prominent role in the extraction and processing of minerals critical to the energy transition. Drawing on the balance of power theory, we argue that the US, the incumbent hegemon, can employ both domestic policies and alliance-building strategies to counterbalance China’s dominance in critical mineral sectors. Empirically, we first assess the nature of US domestic policies with respect to promoting domestic critical mineral production and restricting foreign investment in the extractive sectors through investment screening measures, and then assess the degree to which the US has relied on Five Eyes alliance partners to achieve common strategic goals. We find evidence that the US uses a multifaceted geoeconomic approach involving domestic policies and alliance strategies to counterbalance China’s dominant position in critical mineral supply chains.