New energy technologies: trends in the development of clean and efficient energy technologies

Abstract

This is an edited version of a background paper for the third session of the Eighth International Energy Forum, held in Osaka, Japan, on 21–23 September. The session was entitled: “Interaction among Energy Security, Environmental Issues and Economic Growth”.The paper highlights key technologies or features that are likely to have a significant impact on the world energy scene in the coming two–to–three decades. It begins with the consensus view among most forecasters that world energy demand will continue growing through 2020, with OPEC’s World Energy Model projecting average annual growth of two per cent during this period.The four principal sections of the paper focus on: upstream oil and gas technology; electric power technologies, with sub–divisions on clean fossil fuels, carbon dioxide sequestration, renewables and nuclear power; the transportation sector; and fuel cell technology, together with hydrogen, as a secondary energy–carrier.The paper concludes that, through 2020 and beyond, oil will continue to be the major source fuelling the forecast rise in energy demand, especially in the transportation sector. Gas will play an increasing role in electricity generation, which will continue growing at a faster rate than overall energy demand. The successful deployment of cleaner, more efficient technologies is expected to help coal retain its importance. However, widespread concern about climate change issues may threaten to constrain the growth in demand for fossil fuels, and this concern must be addressed through such measures as CO2 capture and storage sequestration technology.Nuclear power is unlikely to assume a larger role in the global energy mix, unless such fundamental obstacles as economic competitiveness and public acceptance are overcome. Most renewables face challenging environmental and sustainability constraints and require substantial cost reductions to be competitive. Moreover, while fuel cells have many attractive features, including high efficiency and reduced or near–zero emissions, they have many complex material and manufacturing problems and their commercial prospects are limited for the foreseeable future.Therefore, unless unexpected compelling reasons to do otherwise arise, cleaner fossil fuels will continue to dominate the power sector, as well as most other sectors, for decades to come.