New Directions in China's Agricultural Imports

Abstract

Agricultural imports of the People's Republic of China rose sharply between 1977 and 1979. Grain imports increased to record levels, coarse grains appear to be emerging as a regular import item, China's traditional net export surplus of soybeans vanished, and imports of vegetable oils were substantial. Sugar imports were also well above historical averages and cotton imports reached a record high. This expansion of agricultural imports has been but a small part of a major increase in PRC foreign trade, an increase which has raised total trade in nominal terms by nearly 60% between 1976 and 1978, has seen a large program of complete plant and technology purchases, and has programmed substantial trade deficits for coming years, deficits that will be covered by a sizeable accumulation of foreign debt. The long-run implications for agricultural imports of developments in the past two years are by no means certain. On the one hand, demand developments in China suggest growing pressures to further increase agricultural imports. On the other hand, limitations on China's ability to export, growing debt repayment pressures during the eighties, and China's new seriousness about acceleration of the