New Approach to The Perceptron Algorithm with Quantum Computing for Prediction Analysis of Rice Imports in Indonesia

Introduction: The persistence of rice imports while domestic production shows an increase over time has resulted in forming this hypothesis among rice producers in Iran that import of the rice is unjustified. This study is seeking to evaluate this hypothesis. Materials and Methods: The relationship between the import of rice and the quantities of domestic production as well as the other theoretically possible factors explaining import over period 1981-2014, including domestic/world market relative price, exchange rate, domestic income, population, tariff rate are investigated using exploratory data analysis (EDA) approach. In addition, the relationship between import and these factors is quantified using ECM econometric methodology. Furthermore, the VAR framework is utilized to specify causality between the above-mentioned variables and quantities of rice imported. Results and Discussion: Results from EDA revealed that there is not a clear relationship between the quantities of domestically produced rice and the imported quantities, while such a relationship is shown between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported. In addition, the quantities of imported rice are not related to the domestic/world price ratio. Moreover, EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price of rice. Results from EDA are supported by the co-integration and ECM methodology. The Granger causality between per capita crude oil revenue and the quantities of rice imported which was tested within VAR framework indicates that there is a one way causality from the first variable to the second one. Furthermore, the estimated ECM shows that the effect of per capita crude oil revenue on quantities of imported rice is higher in log relative to the short run. A one-dollar increase in per capita crude oil revenue results in 360 metric tons import of rice in the long run while the same one dollar increase will result in 290 metric tons import of rice in the short run. These results support the hypothesis that import of the rice is an unstructured import which may hurt domestic rice producers. Finally, calculation of the intra industry trade index indicates that intra-industry trade theory cannot explain the increasing trend of rice import in Iran. Conclusions: Given that the per capita oil revenue is the main determinant of the rice imports, besides the fact that EDA shows a decreasing trend in real domestic price (terms of trade) of rice and reaching below one led to the conclusion that the unjustified import hypothesis is confirmed in Iran. Accordingly, a revise in rice import is suggested. Specifically, decoupling rice import from crude oil revenues and limiting import, using price elasticity information, to keep an increase in the price of this commodity equivalent to the CPI growth rate for domestic producers is suggested.

Indonesia as an agricultural country has long been trying to achieve rice self-sufficiency to meet domestic food needs. However, although various policies and programs have been launched to support self-sufficiency, Indonesia still faces challenges that result in periodic rice imports. This study examines the main factors that cause dependence on rice imports, including limited agricultural land, climate change, inadequate irrigation infrastructure, and stagnant productivity at the farmer level. In addition, population growth and changes in consumption patterns have added pressure on domestic rice production. The analysis shows that successful self-sufficiency requires improvements in agricultural technology, infrastructure improvements, and policies that support sustainable farming. In conclusion, although Indonesia has great potential in rice production, the role of imports is still needed to balance fluctuations in domestic production and to ensure stable food security. The research method used is quantitative with data collection through access to Internet sites in the form of books, journals, and websites. According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), rice production in Indonesia has fluctuated due to several factors, such as the climate crisis, decreasing agricultural land and soil conditions, and access to irrigation. Rice production in the January-April 2024 period fell by 17.54% compared to the same period last year when it reached 22.55 million tons. Rice imports are a strategic step taken by the government to ensure the availability and stability of rice prices in Indonesia. Factors such as fluctuations in domestic production, high consumption needs, and efforts to maintain food reserves are the main reasons behind this decision. With a better understanding of the reasons and mechanisms of rice imports, it is hoped that the public can support this policy for the common good.

This research aims aims to analyze the impact of rice imports from Thailand and Vietnam on rice market price stability in Indonesia. Using quantitative methods, this study explores time series data from 2018 to 2022 to analyze demand and supply. Average rice consumption, domestic production, and rice imports from both countries are calculated as part of the quantitative calculations. An evaluation of medium and premium rice price variables was also conducted to identify potential market fluctuations. The research findings provide in-depth insights into the relationship between rice imports, domestic production, and rice price stability in Indonesia. This research is expected to make a valuable contribution in managing rice supply and formulating appropriate economic policies in Indonesia. The research was conducted to determine whether production, price and consumption have a relationship with Indonesia's rice imports. From various sources by discussing the production, price and level of domestic consumption. It was found that Indonesia's rice import quantity is influenced by the level of domestic rice consumption and production, which has an impact on the price of rice in the Indonesian market.

Rice is an essential commodity in Indonesian society's socio-economic life. This study aimed to determine the influence of rice imports in Indonesia from 2013 to 2022 and the implications of government policy in Indonesia. Data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS) spanning 2013 to 2022 was obtained as secondary information. The method applied involves using dummy variables in multiple linear regression analyses, classical assumption tests, and multiple linear regression analyses. The variables used in this analysis are rice production (X1), rice price (X2), population (X3), consumption (X4), land area (X5), exchange rate (X6) and rice imports (Y). The study outcomes obtained: simultaneously, the variables rice production, rice price, population, consumption, land area, and exchange rate affect rice imports and partially have a meaningful positive and negative effect on rice imports. The results of this research also show that simultaneously, the rice production variable on the dummy variable implementing the rice import policy has a significant influence on rice imports in Indonesia, the rice price variable on the dummy variable implementing the rice import policy has a meaningful influence on rice imports in Indonesia, simultaneously the population variable on dummy variable implementation of rice import policy has a meaningful influence on rice imports in Indonesia, simultaneously rice consumption variable on dummy variable implementation of rice import policy has a significant influence on rice imports in Indonesia, simultaneously land area variable on dummy variable implementation of rice import policy has a meaningful influence on rice imports in Indonesia. Simultaneously, the exchange rate variable on the dummy variable implementing the rice import policy has a meaningful influence on rice imports in Indonesia.

This study estimated the gains of virtual water, Phosphorus (P) and Phytic Acid (PA) through rice and wheat import to Ghana for the period 1998– 2005, and assessed the implications of increasing rice import coupled with declining domestic production for food security. The total virtual water of Ghana associated with rice and wheat import for the study period was 5574 Mm3, while the total P and PA was 1,364,097 and 3,825,438 tonnes, respectively. Domestic paddy rice production started declining from 2003, but was exceeded by import from 2001 onwards. Particularly for rice, the combination of factors such as surging demand and per capita consumption, low yield resulting from less land under cultivation and irrigation, and high import bill, necessitates policy actions to remove constraints on domestic production. The paper, therefore, suggests policy actions to increase domestic rice production and to minimise Ghana’s exposure to the risks inherent in rice import.

In the current digital era, e-commerce has become the backbone of Indonesia's digital economy, which is experiencing rapid growth. However, competition in this industry is becoming increasingly fierce, indicating the importance of predicting the number of website visitors for an effective marketing strategy. Quantum Perceptron, the latest quantum computing innovation, promises a more accurate and efficient approach compared to conventional methods such as classical Perceptron. This research proposes the use of Quantum Perceptron to predict the number of visitors on large e-commerce platforms in Indonesia. The data used in the research is data on the number of e-commerce visitors obtained from the katadata.com website. Data from Shopee, Tokopedia, Lazada, Blibli, and Bukalapak were used to analyze and compare predictions with classical perceptron methods, showing the significant potential of Quantum Perceptron in supporting the development of more efficient business strategies. The research results show that the Quantum Perceptron algorithm can make predictions very well compared to the classical perceptron, proven by the Quantum Perceptron having a perfect accuracy of 100% with a total of 2 epochs while the classical perceptron has 100% accuracy with a total of 10 epochs. Quantum perceptron has better performance and shorter time, this can be seen from the smaller number of epochs.

This study aims to determine the effect of Rice Production, Rice Consumption, Domestic Rice Prices, Foreign Rice Prices, Exchange Rates and Rice Stocks either partially or simultaneously on Rice Imports in Indonesia. The data are sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). The results of the partial significance test show that the rice production variable has an insignificant negative effect on the variable amount of rice imports. The price of rice has an insignificant negative effect on the variable amount of rice imports, the price effect on rice imports is not significant because rice is a staple item that people want or not to continue to consume, the variable rice consumption has a positive and insignificant effect on the variable amount of rice imports. Simultaneous significance test is known that rice production, rice price and rice consumption variables simultaneously have no significant effect on the variable amount of rice imports because the probability value is value. It is necessary to understand that North Sumatra has many rice granaries, although North Sumatra has to import rice, this is only temporary, for example before religious celebrations or when some rice granaries experience crop failure. The results of the determination test showed that variations in rice production variables, rice prices and rice consumption had an effect of 30.4% and the remaining 69.6% were influenced by other variables that were not examined, such as climate change which made North Sumatra fail to harvest and lack of rice stocks, increased demand. North Sumatran rice on religious holidays such as Eid and New Year, the rupiah exchange rate against foreign currencies, population, North Sumatra's per capita income, and others.

The wholesale rice trade in Indonesia encounters various challenges in forecasting prices. These challenges are influenced by factors such as weather, government policies, global market conditions, and other economic variables. Accurate price predictions are crucial for informing government policy in a timely manner. This research introduces a new approach that utilizes the Quantum Perceptron algorithm to forecast rice prices. The algorithm, an innovative method in quantum computing, is expected to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of price predictions. Although the research is still in the analytical stage, the use of Quantum Perceptron shows promise in dynamically addressing the complexity of market data and the variability of factors affecting rice prices. The method focuses on developing models that can leverage quantum computing to process information more effectively than classical methods. By harnessing the unique properties of quantum mechanics, such as superposition and entanglement, Quantum Perceptron can identify complex patterns and optimize predictions of future rice prices. The research describes the implementation of quantum algorithms in the context of the Indonesian rice wholesale market, including the technical challenges encountered and future development prospects. The research utilizes quantum computing along with the perceptron algorithm. The researchers focused on analyzing the quantum perceptron algorithm because of the limited availability of quantum computing devices. The findings of this research are confined to analysis. In order to advance this research, the author recommends that future studies employ quantum devices to achieve more accurate predictions

Muhammad Ramadhani, 2019 ‘’Factors to affect the import of rice in Indonesia’’ guided by Jiuhardi and Erwin Kurniawan A. This research aims to determine the effect of rice production, total population and local rice prices on the import of rice in Indonesia.This research uses secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (Kementan), and the General Company of Logistics Affairs (Perum Bulog).The analytical techniques used are multiple linear regression analyses. The results showed that rice production was affects negative and insignificant the import of rice in Indonesia. total population was affects positive and significant the import of rice in Indonesia. local rice prices was affects positive and significant the import of rice in Indonesia.

As a producer of rice, Indonesia still import rice to meet domestic rice consumption. This is not appropriate with data that shows that domestic rice production has a surplus. Surplus rice production, the government should be able to meet domestic demand for rice without the need to import rice. Therefore, this study aims to: 1) describe the development of rice imports in Indonesia and the factors that influence them, 2) analyze the factors that influence rice imports in Indonesia. Variables used in this research are inflation, gross domestic product, land area, rice production, direct and indirect consumption, supply of rice, population, domestic rice prices, exchange rate and world rice prices period 1996-2016. The data used are secondary data obtained from FAO, COMTRADE UN, BPS and Directorate General of Food. The analytical method used is an approach using Partial Least Square (PLS). The results showed that rice imports in Indonesia fluctuate tend to increase due to the influence of macroeconomic variables with moderating variables, both directly and indirectly. Macroeconomic variables with moderating variables in rice farming have no significant effect on rice imports. While macroeconomic variables with moderating variables demand for rice significantly influence rice imports. Macroeconomic variables directly influence the import of rice. Kata Kunci: Impor, Makro Ekonomi, Usahatani Padi, Permintaan Beras

Indonesia is an agricultural country where the source of livelihood for most of its population is in the agricultural sector. Indonesia is called an agricultural country because it has abundant natural resources and extensive agricultural land. However, just having a large area of ??land and getting the title of an agricultural country does not mean that you can produce your own food. The large population is one of the factors that influences Indonesia to import food commodities to meet basic domestic needs. This research aims to determine the influence of rice production, rice prices, exchange rates on rice imports from an Islamic perspective. The research method uses a quantitative approach with the VAR/VECM method. The data collected is secondary data and analyzed using software Eviews 13. The sample for this research is monthly and annual data on rice production, rice prices, exchange rates and rice imports from 2000-2023. The research results show that rice production partially influences rice imports. Rice prices influence rice imports. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative effect on rice imports and rice production, rice prices, the exchange rate partially has a significant negative effect on rice imports.

Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara produsen beras terbesar di dunia. Sebagai negara penghasil beras Indonesia masih mengimpor beras untuk memenuhi konsumsi beras dalam negeri. Hal ini tidak sesuai dengan data yang menunjukkan bahwa produksi beras dalam negeri mengalami surplus. Dengan produksi beras yang surplus seharusnya pemerintah dapat memenuhi kebutuhan beras dalam negeri tanpa perlu mengimpor beras. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel independen (produksi beras, jumlah penduduk dan produk domestik bruto) terhadap variabel dependen (impor beras) baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Penelitian ini menggunakan data runtun waktu atau time series. Model analisis yang digunakan adalah alat analisis ekonometrika model koreksi kesalahan (Error Correction Model/ECM) dan asumsi klasik. Model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan (1) variabel produksi dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap impor beras Indonesia. (2) variabel penduduk dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang tidak ada pengaruh terhadap impor beras Indonesia. (3) Variabel produk domestik bruto dalam jangka pendek tidak ada pengaruh dengan impor beras sedangkan dalam jangka panjang produk domestik bruto berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap impor beras Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel produksi beras dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh signifikan terhadap impor beras sedangkan dalam jangka panjang variabel produksi dan produk domestik bruto berpengaruh signifikan terhadap impor beras. Bagi pemerintah seharusnya memproteksi produk beras dalam negeri supaya pasar tidak dibanjiri oleh produk beras impor, misalkan dengan lebih memaksimalkan penyerapan beras dari para petani lokal, sehingga pasar bisa didominasi oleh produk beras lokal selain itu pemerintah dan petani bekerja sama untuk merevitalisasi bahan pangan agar konsumsi nasional tidak bergantung pada satu bahan pangan saja yaitu beras,

To fulfil the need of rice is to increase the domestic production, which is the one of the government’s policy. However, by increasing the population, the demand of rice will also increase and the effort of increase the domestic productivity cannot supply the need of domestic rice. So, to cover the shortage the government makes decision to import rice from other countries. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also increased after monetary crisis in 1998. In the fact of the import of rice is occurred when the statistical data showed that the supply of rice in Indonesia is surplus. The aim of this research is necessary to study the factors which influence the import of rice in Indonesia. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression analysis model with Error Correction Model (ECM). Based on the research proven that partially or jointly the gross domestic product, the consumption, the price of rice in world market are influence significantly toward the import of rice in Indonesia.

This study aims to 1) identify factors that affect the import of rice in Indonesia 2) analyze the influence of these factors on imports of rice in Indonesia. The data used in this research are time series data from 1994 to 2013 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce, National Logistics Agency (Bulog), and Bank Indonesia. Multiple linear regression through SPSS software version 21 was employed to analyze the data. The test results together indicated the variables of productions, consumptions, stocks of rice, domestic rice prices, international rice prices and the rupiah against the US dollar affect the imports of rice in Indonesia.

<p>This research has examined the issue of supply chain disruptions and how they affect price volatility in the commodities marketplace. Specifically, this point was discussed and examined in relation to the rice imports undertaken by Saudi Arabia with respect to how supply chain disruptions in the rice supply channel contributes to price volatility. The supply chain was first identified to consist of various nodes along which market participants work to move the commodity from one point to another. The observation was confirmed that any disruptions up the supply chain tended to manifest themselves in downstream effects such as the bullwhip effect in which increased inventory levels or decreasing inventory levels are felt successively further down the supply chain. These and factors relating to supply as well as demand in other markets also were identified to contribute to price volatility for Saudi Arabia and its rice imports. The analysis demonstrated that every major global economic disturbance over the past 50 years corresponded to fluctuations in the price of food commodities. Saudi Arabia was shown to receive the vast majority of rice supplies from a single market which is India. India supplies Saudi Arabia with some 72% of its rice imports which ensures that any transportation or customs issue encountered by any supply channel participant prior to the Kingdom’s receipt of its rice will alter the price profile of these rice commodities. Saudi Arabia was shown to already have experienced substantial price volatility of its rice imports with much of this volatility originating in India due to suppliers in India responding to competing demand for its Basmati varieties of rice. This volatility was manifested during 2012 and 2013 when rice prices per metric ton increased some 40% overall. Finally, this report also undertook regression analysis of the rice import data that found positive correlations between variables such as time between harvest and distribution, milling facility ownership and road/shipping lane conditions and the price structure of rice. The conclusion is that supply chain disruptions can and periodically do result in price volatility for rice in Saudi Arabia. Hence, this report finds that certain factors such as information access, the establishment of long-term contracts as well as trade group membership can be effective at reducing the transaction costs in the Kingdom’s rice market. Essentially, these factors can work to place downward pressure on rice prices by the metric ton which would flatten out some of the price volatility in Saudi Arabia’s rice imports.</p>