Abstract
Despite global recognition of the social, economic and ecological impacts of deforestation, the world is losing forests at an alarming rate. Global and regional efforts by policymakers and donors to reduce deforestation need science-driven information on where forest loss is happening, and where it may happen in the future. We used spatially-explicit globally-consistent variables and global historical tree cover and loss to analyze how global- and regional-scale variables contributed to historical tree cover loss and to model future risks of tree cover loss, based on a business-as-usual scenario. Our results show that (1) some biomes have higher risk of tree cover loss than others; (2) variables related to tree cover loss at the global scale differ from those at the regional scale; and (3) variables related to tree cover loss vary by continent. By mapping both tree cover loss risk and potential future tree cover loss, we aim to provide decision makers and donors with multiple outputs to improve targeting of forest conservation investments. By making the outputs readily accessible, we anticipate they will be used in other modeling analyses, conservation planning exercises, and prioritization activities aimed at conserving forests to meet national and global climate mitigation targets and biodiversity goals.
Highlights
Global deforestation represents a significant threat to human wellbeing, biodiversity conservation, and the provision of ecosystem services
Our study has developed the first set of 1km maps showing the risk of tree cover loss and projections of potential future tree cover loss at both the global and regional scales based on models constructed using a series of spatially-explicit variables related to historical deforestation and globally-consistent data on historical tree cover and tree cover loss
The resolution of these maps takes advantage of the high-resolution tree cover loss data developed by [12] which inherently capture the finer scale patterns of tree cover loss. These new products are important for informing ongoing policy discussions about where forest conservation efforts are most urgently needed for biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and achievement of the SDGs (e.g., [32,33]) as the maps highlight which areas are at greatest risk of tree cover loss as well as those areas projected to experience tree cover loss based on a 15-year BAU scenario
Summary
Global deforestation represents a significant threat to human wellbeing, biodiversity conservation, and the provision of ecosystem services. The world continues to lose its forest at an alarming rate. From 1990–2015, the global forest area declined 3%, representing a loss of 129 M hectares [7], and this continues in many regions [5,6,7]. Policymakers, donors and conservation practitioners are increasingly aware of the need to reduce deforestation and are spearheading coordinated global, regional, and national efforts to significantly reduce forest loss. At the global level, ongoing efforts to reduce deforestation include: (1) REDD+
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
