Nesting in the evaluation of system readiness for complex systems of emerging technologies

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of nesting assumptions on the calculated system readiness for an integrated complex system that includes multiple subsystem components. In particular, it focuses on the net impact of calculating the system readiness of a subsystem of technology components; calculating an equivalent technology readiness level (TRL) for the subsystem treated as a single component technology; and including this TRL and subsystem interfaces in a Systems Readiness Assessment (SRA) for a larger system. The SRA methodology used in this evaluation has been demonstrated previously in several Department of Defense (DoD) applications and recently in a DOE application. The process for converting an SRL to a single equivalent TRL is based on methodology described in a handbook on SRA applications issued by the National Security Agency. The analysis concludes that nesting assumptions can have a significant impact on the estimated readiness of a larger system. However, the analysis also concludes that equality, equivalence, and consistency in the identification and aggregation of technologies into technology subsystems (parity) can be used to provide consistent and comparable evaluations of system readiness that are needed in the development of complex system designs and for effectively tracking progress toward system readiness goals. The result is a potentially powerful and pragmatic approach for focusing management attention on critical elements of the R&D life cycle and supporting decisions on R&D investments.