Neither North nor South: The Liberal Democrat Performance in the 2005 General Election

Abstract

In the 2005 General Election, the Liberal Democrats increased their share of the vote by 4%, winning 62 seats in Parliament. However, the geography of Liberal Democrat improvement was uneven. In this paper we explore the factors which contributed to this pattern. Two features stand out. First, unlike in recent elections, advances in Liberal Democrat support were neither in their heartlands nor predominantly in areas of local election success. Rather their vote share increased most in university constituencies and in areas with large Muslim populations. We estimate the combination of the education vote and the Muslim vote may have won the party as many as 14 seats. Second there was a change in the relationship with the other major parties. In recent elections the Liberal Democrats had benefited from tactical switching from Labour with whom they had shared an informal anti‐Conservative alliance. In 2005 the Liberal Democrats gained support in the Labour heartlands, but struggled to convert the bedrock of Labour support in areas where they were challenging the Conservatives, or even to hold on to support where they were defending seats in the face of a Conservative challenge. Our findings add further credence to the argument that, in a first‐past‐the‐post system, a third party can only advance incrementally, taking advantage of whatever favourable contest and context specific factors prevail.