Negative anecdotes reduce policy support: evidence from three experimental studies on communicating policy (in)effectiveness

Under certain conditions, statistical evidence is more persuasive than anecdotal evidence in supporting a claim about the probability that a certain event will occur. In three experiments, it is shown that the type of argument is an important condition in this respect. If the evidence is part of an argument by generalization, statistical evidence is more persuasive compared with anecdotal evidence (Experiments 1 and 2). In the case of argument by analogy, statistical and anecdotal evidences are equally persuasive (Experiments 2 and 3). However, if the case in the anecdotal evidence is dissimilar from the case in the claim, statistical evidence is again more persuasive (Experiment 3). The implications of these results for the concept of argument quality are discussed.

Persuasive messages use statistical evidence in order to convince an audience to accept a conclusion. Statistical evidence represents a compilation of experiences structured and collected in a manner that permits expression in mathematical form. Research demonstrates that the use of statistical evidence increases the persuasiveness of a message, and a message that uses both statistical and narrative evidence generates the greatest persuasiveness. Statistical evidence can take the form of summarizing the collective opinion of experts on a topic or an expression of the collective set of experiences. The challenge becomes gaining acceptance of statistical expressions of experience versus what is perceived as the narrative or lived experience of the single person. Statistical evidence is often presented using a mathematical expression to indicate the size or force of the evidence. The accumulation of statistical evidence often involves the use of meta-analysis to reduce Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) error. The use of evidence is strategic and can target specific elements of belief by understanding the structure of beliefs and the connectivity among elements. The use of the Subjective Probability Model provides a means to capitalize on the use of evidence by changing probabilities in beliefs to increase the effectiveness of a message campaign. Statistical evidence, however, may be ineffective under circumstances referred to as the “base-rate fallacy.” The base-rate fallacy occurs when the presentation of statistical information is accepted, but examples are used that contradict the base-rate. The impact of the use of the example is to create a shift in the belief in the typicality of the example, despite knowledge of the base-rate. Fear appeals provide a particularly useful and important application of statistical evidence in the pursuit of public health campaigns. The tenets of the Extended Parallel Processing Model indicate that message effectiveness relies on a combination of: (a) perceived severity of the threat, (b) perceived vulnerability to the threat, (c) perceived efficacy of the solution, and (d) perceived personal efficacy of the solution. Each element is largely impacted by the application and use of statistical information to make claims. The use of statistics generally outlines the argument and supports the conclusion offered in support of a conclusion offered to the message recipient. Statistical evidence when used in a message often offers data or information that becomes the justification for a conclusion. A large part of a message becomes gaining acceptance of information by an audience, then explaining (reasoning) to the audience how those facts support a conclusion, often involving some type of recommendation for behavior. Understanding statistical evidence requires understanding how the material functions within the context of the belief system of the individual.

ABSTRACTThe persuasiveness of anecdotal evidence and statistical evidence has been investigated in a large number of studies, but the combination of anecdotal and statistical evidence has hardly received research attention. The present experimental study therefore investigated the persuasiveness of this combination. It also examined whether the quality of anecdotal evidence affects persuasiveness and to what extent people comprehend the combination of anecdotal and statistical evidence. In an experiment, people read a realistic persuasive message that was relevant to them. Results showed that anecdotal evidence does not benefit from the inclusion of statistical evidence or from its intrinsic quality. The analysis of readers’ cognitive thoughts showed that only some participants comprehended the relationship between anecdotal and statistical evidence.

Concerted, timely action for mitigating climate change is of uttermost importance to keep global warming as close to 1.5°C as possible. Air traffic already plays a strong role in driving climate change and is projected to grow—with only limited technical potential for decarbonizing this means of transport. Therefore, it is desirable to minimize the expansion of air traffic or even facilitate a reduction in affluent countries. Effective policies and behavioral change, especially among frequent flyers, can help to lower greenhouse gas emissions. For both, a positive evaluation and public support is indispensable. This study contributes to understanding air travel behavior and the perception of regulative policies. We examined the role of attitudes, perceived behavioral control, efficacy, global identity, and justice concerns for intentions to avoid flights and aviation-related environmental policy support. We conducted an online survey study with a quota sample of N = 2,530 participants in Germany. The strongest positive predictors of intentions to refrain from flying and policy support were perceived behavioral control to travel without flying, efficacy beliefs that avoiding air travel contributes to climate change mitigation, and intergenerational justice concerns; pro-travel attitude was a negative predictor. Moreover, we tested whether the provision of additional information on climate impact, global and intranational inequalities as well as subsidies (implying intranational inequality) affected the intention to avoid air travel and policy support. We found no effects of the different types of information. Nor did we find an interaction between the type of information provided and global or national identity. Our results highlight the need for a shift within the mobility sector that facilitates attractive and accessible transport alternatives in order to strengthen people’s behavioral control to choose other means than planes and their efficacy perceptions. Moreover, raising awareness of the impacts of climate change on future generations and developing strategies to promote people’s concern for intergenerational justice might motivate people to reduce air travel and thereby contribute to a livable future for new generations.

Influences of credibility of testimony and strength of statistical evidence on children’s and adolescents’ reasoning

Media narratives play a crucial role in framing marine conservation dilemmas by depicting human actors, such as fish consumers or the fishing industry, as responsible for negative effects of their actions on species and ecosystems. However, there is little evidence documenting how such narratives affect preferences for reducing bycatch. Behavioral science research shows that people can act less prosocially when more actors are responsible for a collective outcome (responsibility diffusion effect) and when more victims need to be helped (compassion fade effect); thus, the media's framing of actors and victims may have a significant effect on preferences. We conducted the first test of responsibility diffusion and compassion fade in a marine context in an online experiment (1548 participants in the United Kingdom). In 9 media narratives, we varied the type of actors responsible for fisheries bycatch (e.g., consumers and industry) and victims (e.g., a single species, multiple species, and ecosystems) in media narratives and determined the effects of the narratives on participants' support for bycatch policies and intentions to alter fish consumption. When responsibility for negative effects was attributed to consumers and industry, the probability of participants reporting support for fisheries policies (e.g., bycatch enforcement or consumer taxes) was ∼30% higher (odds ratio=1.32) than when only consumers were attributed responsibility. These effects were primarily driven by female participants. Narratives had no effect on personal intentions to consume fish. Varying the type of victim had no effect on policy support and intentions. Our results suggest that neither responsibility diffusion nor compassion fade automatically follows from increasing the types of actors and victims in media narratives and that effects can depend on the type of outcome and population subgroup.

To assess the effect of a free healthcare policy for children under five years old implemented in Burkina Faso since April 2016, on the use of health care of non-malarial febrile illnesses (NMFI). To assess the immediate and long-term effect of the free healthcare policy in place, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis of routinely collected data on febrile illnesses from three urban primary health centres of Ouagadougou between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2016. Of the 39046 febrile cases reported in the study period, 17017 NMFI were included in the study. Compared to the period before the intervention, we observed an immediate, non-statistically significant increase of 7% in the number of NMFI (IRR=1.07; 95% CI=0.75, 1.51). Compared to the trend that would have been expected in absence of the intervention, the results showed a small but sustained increase of 6% in the trend of monthly number of NMFI during the intervention period (IRR=1.06; 95%CI=1.01, 1.12). Our study highlighted an increase in the uptake of healthcare services, specifically for NMFI by children under five years of age, after the implementation of a free care policy. This analysis contributes to informing decision makers on the need to strengthen the capacities of healthcare centres and to anticipate the challenges of the sustainability of this policy.

Communication technologies have expanded the range of actors who participate in public debates about science. When experts communicate with the public, scientifically-derived statistical evidence competes with the testimony of non-experts. This study investigates how competing statistical and testimonial evidence affect attitudes toward an issue and the debating speakers. Our findings suggest an advantage to asserting statistical evidence in competitive debates about science; a dissenting lay person is considered more credible when asserting statistical evidence in response to an expert’s testimony than when they assert testimonial evidence. Additionally, prior support for the issue affects evaluations of speakers and issue attitudes.

Public support for alcohol policies associated with knowledge of cancer risk

INTRODUCTIONThere are limited data on the potential effects of e-cigarette experimentation on support for tobacco control policies. To bridge this gap, we assessed associations between e-cigarette experimentation and support for tobacco control policies in the European Union 2012-2014. We also investigated variations across tobacco-use status, e-cigarette experimentation and socio-demographic characteristics.METHODSDatasets were used from the Special Eurobarometer for Tobacco surveys performed in 2012 (n=26 751) and 2014 (n=27 801). Tobacco control policies assessed were: banning advertising, policies to keep tobacco out of sight, banning online sales, banning flavors, standardized packaging, tax increases, and policies to reduce illicit trade in tobacco. We use multilevel logistic regression models to assess variations in socio-demographics and tobacco/e-cigarette use with support for these policies in 2014, and examined changes in support for these policies, between 2012 and 2014, separately by tobacco-use status (never, current, and former smokers).RESULTSPopulation support for tobacco control policies was high in 2014: policies to reduce illicit trade had the highest level of support at 70.1%, while tax increases were the least likely measure to be supported with 52.3% support. Among never and former smokers, experimentation with e-cigarettes was associated with reduced support for all tobacco control policies assessed. For example, never smokers who had experimented with e-cigarettes were less likely to support either tobacco advertising bans (adjusted odds ratio aOR=0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.71) or standardized packaging for tobacco (aOR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.47-0.71). Former smokers who had experimented with e-cigarettes were less likely to either support standardized packaging for tobacco (aOR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.60-0.82) or keeping tobacco out of sight (aOR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.90). Among current smokers, e-cigarette experimentation was not associated with support for the tobacco control policies assessed.CONCLUSIONSE-cigarette experimentation was consistently associated with reduced support for tobacco control policies among never and former smokers but not among current smokers. The implications of these findings for tobacco control are unknown, but the data support concerns that e-cigarette experimentation may affect public support for established tobacco control policies within specific subgroups. Further research is needed to assess potential long-term impacts on tobacco control policies.

Claims about the occurrence of future events play an important role in pragmatic argumentation. Such claims can be supported by inductive arguments employing anecdotal, statistical, or causal evidence. In an experiment, the actual and perceived persuasiveness of these three types of evidence were assessed. A total of 324 participants read a newspaper article in which it was claimed that the building of a cultural centre would be profitable. This claim was supported by either anecdotal, statistical or causal evidence. The statistical evidence proved to be more convincing than the anecdotal and causal evidence. Although the latter two evidence types were equally unconvincing, the anecdotal evidence was perceived as less persuasive than the causal evidence. Therefore, the actual and perceived persuasiveness of the evidence did not correspond. These results partly replicate the results obtained in previous experiments. They also underscore the need to distinguish between the perceived and the actual persuasiveness of an argument.

Alcohol is a leading risk factor for the global burden of disease and contributes to a range of social and economic harms. Globally, alcohol is estimated to be the seventh leading risk factor in 2016 in terms of disability adjusted years of life lost, and alcohol use is the leading risk factor in disability adjusted years of life lost between the ages of 15 and 49 years 1. The 2016 global burden of disease analysis has confirmed more limited preventive effects from alcohol than have been previously claimed and identified a much larger risk of cancer due to alcohol 1. A non-communicable disease target of 10% relative reduction in alcohol consumption has been established by the World Health Organization (WHO) 2; alcohol is also recognised by the United Nations as a threat to sustainable development 3 and contributes economic costs of approximately 1%–2% of gross domestic product in several countries where these have been assessed 4. Policy measures to restrict alcohol availability, curtail affordability and restrict alcohol marketing, when implemented, have reduced alcohol-related harm 5-7, however, such policies have not, as yet, been widely implemented and, while summarised in the WHO Global Strategy to Reduce Harmful Use of Alcohol, they have not been encapsulated into an international health treaty comparable with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Substantially less groundwork is available in alcohol control, when compared with tobacco, on monitoring and encouraging legislation and implementation of effective alcohol policy. For example, WHO developed the policy package MPOWER to monitor and assist with country-level implementation to reduce demand for tobacco 8. The Global Information System on Alcohol and Health (also developed by WHO) makes country-level alcohol consumption and policy data available, but does not provide resources for intervention implementation (although there have been some efforts at regional level 9 and a tool on taxation and pricing was recently published by WHO 10). The lack of progress in alcohol control at the national and international levels is highlighted by the fact that alcohol attributable DALYs have increased by more than 25% over the years 1990–2016, driven primarily by increased consumption in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia, among both men and women 1. Africa is now experiencing similar impacts to those in Asia as a result of targeting by the supranational alcohol corporations 11, 12. The implementation of alcohol policies is not only often politically difficult 5, but also more complex than that of tobacco for a number of reasons, including the availability of a range of beverages of different potencies and a wide range of prices in on- and off-premise drinking contexts. In addition, unlike for tobacco, there are policies related to intoxication such as restrictions of sale to intoxicated patrons and drink-driving legislation. The International Alcohol Control (IAC) study had its origins in several discussions with a colleague who participated in the International Tobacco Control (ITC) study 13, Professor Gerard Hastings, about the value of a study similar to the ITC pertaining to alcohol. A proposal was made to the Health Promotion Agency of New Zealand, and in 2010 New Zealand researchers, along with invited researchers from four other countries—three high-income (England, Scotland and Korea) and one middle-income country (Thailand), met in Scotland to plan the IAC; the planning drew on the expertise of staff in the Institute for Social Marketing, University of Stirling, who were participants in the ITC. The International Alcohol Control Study was developed by Casswell et al. 14 to provide detailed information on alcohol use, policy relevant behaviours and how these change in response to changing conditions. Subsequently, each participating country needed to raise its own funding to participate and resources have differed, resulting in some differences in approach. The International Development Research Centre of Canada has been a particularly important supporter of the IAC, funding participation by four middle-income countries in the full IAC project, and by three African countries in the use of the Alcohol Environment Protocol, and funding training and much of the dissemination to date. The methodology designed was comparable to the ITC. Longitudinal surveys of drinkers would collect information on consumption and policy relevant behaviour, allowing for assessment of the impacts of policy change when this occurred and comparison with countries in which the same policy change had not occurred. It also allowed, through the measures relating to specific policies, disentangling the effects of different policies if these were introduced as a package. Like the ITC, there was no attempt to collect measures of harm; rather, the IAC relied on very detailed consumption data as a proxy for harm. While the methodology of the IAC study allows for the evaluation of policy change, the reality is that policy change does not always occur at all, or when it is hoped for or anticipated. The secondary aim of the IAC study, therefore, was to collect accurate and detailed information on alcohol consumption and information on the policy environment and policy-relevant behaviours to inform policy debate. This is the focus of the papers in this Special Issue. Participation over many years in WHO meetings and consultations with officials and researchers in middle-income countries, particularly in Asia, made it apparent there was a growing level of concern about alcohol use. This reflected the expansion of the supranational alcohol corporations into new markets in middle-income countries with low drinking prevalence, growing economies and young populations, increasingly connected to the global youth culture, often in a digitally mediated environment. In these countries, as the need for research data to examine the use of alcohol became a priority, researchers new to the alcohol field often collected very basic consumption data. While this can be a useful first step (and the STEPS surveys supported by WHO in many countries was a valuable tool 15) the research lacked detail on drinking and, importantly, any reference to the policy context. The goal, therefore, was to provide a research platform which could be made available to researchers in not only high-income but also middle-income countries to collect robust and comparable data which could inform policy discussion. The policy focus of the study was on the ‘best buys’ of alcohol policy 16; those which research had shown, at least in high-income countries, were likely to be cost effective in reducing alcohol-related harm if implemented properly. These were policies restricting availability, control of price and affordability, restricting marketing of alcohol and legislating to prevent drink-driving. The areas for which there is less evidence, such as labelling, health warnings and education, were not included. The IAC study makes a unique contribution to the epidemiology of alcohol consumption. This is the first international collaborative project to collect general population survey data on alcohol consumption in such detail. It provides measures of typical quantities consumed, frequency of drinking and volumes consumed; the data are available by location of drinking and by beverages chosen. The survey instrument allows for very high coverage of alcohol available for consumption (based on sales or tax data) 17, 18 and is designed to provide comparable consumption data in different alcohol markets, including those with a sizeable proportion of informal alcohol. The IAC study also makes a unique contribution to alcohol policy research through the measurement of policy related behaviours. The survey data provide detail on key policy issues such as the prices paid, the location of purchase, time taken to access alcohol, the times of purchase and response to alcohol marketing. A second IAC tool is the Alcohol Environment Protocol which draws together data from legal and policy documents, administrative and commercial data, published research, observational studies and primary data collection of key informant perceptions. This framework allows for the collection of comparable data on policy settings and implementation. As of 2017, when the first cross-country analyses, published in this Special Issue, were carried out, 16 countries had engaged in some component of the IAC study, and of these 10 had successfully carried out at least one wave of a general population survey providing an insight into a wide range of alcohol markets These were five high-income countries [Australia, England, Scotland, New Zealand and St Kitts and Nevis (St Kitts and Nevis transitioned to high-income during the course of the project)]; three high middle-income (Thailand, South Africa and Peru); and two low middle-income countries (Mongolia and Vietnam). The countries participating in this project vary substantially in size, demography and social structure. One caution is that the data presented and discussed here are referred to by the country name, although several of the surveys did not sample the whole nation. For example, the Vietnamese sample is drawn from a number of provinces, South Africa surveyed in one large municipality, Peru surveyed in one area of Lima and Mongolia surveyed only in Ulaanbaatar. The countries vary greatly in population size and affluence (Table 1). The more affluent countries in this study score higher on the United Nations Human Development Reports Education Index, which is calculated using mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling. The per capita consumption based on those aged 15+ years in Table 1, taken from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, show that the high-income countries had the highest per capita consumption, the high middle-income countries next and low middle-income least, with the exception of South Africa, which is drinking aggregate volumes similar to New Zealand with much lower prevalence of drinking 22. The proportion of abstainers among males, among females and among the total population is very different between the high-income and middle-income countries, with most of the high-income countries showing a prevalence of drinking at 80% or higher; the exception is St Kitts and Nevis. The gender ratio in prevalence is also very different, with high-income countries showing least difference between men and women and Thailand the greatest difference. The countries also differ in terms of the estimates of unrecorded alcohol, with Vietnam, the least affluent country, showing the largest proportion of unrecorded alcohol. Note that in all of the international comparison tables in this Special Issue, country data are presented in order of decreasing affluence. This Special Issue presents the first cross country analyses from 10 countries of the IAC. For a number of reasons, including omission of sections of the core questionnaire, programming issues (the survey is computer assisted) and lack of data to complete the Alcohol Environment Protocol, not all countries had data available for all analyses, and so the participating countries in each analysis vary. After describing the methodology, the first section provides an insight into the alcohol policy environment and policy relevant behaviours. The second section reports on consumption patterns and the relationships with policy-related behaviours and support for policy. The resources available and the context of the research varied across the 10 countries whose data are analysed in these papers. This affected implementation, but the goal of the methodology, described in the first section, was to provide a framework to allow data to be as comparable as possible in very different alcohol markets. In relation to aspects which necessarily differed—for example, the sampling designs employed—analytical techniques have been employed to minimise the effect in the analyses 23. Results from the Alcohol Environment Protocol, as reported from seven countries, described differences in the legislative and regulatory frameworks, and in key informants’ perceptions of the way alcohol policy was implemented and enforced 24. The level of implementation and enforcement was lower in lower-income countries and, in high-income countries where enforcement was stronger, policy was more liberal; marketing regulation was largely absent in all countries. Taxation systems and prices paid for alcohol by survey respondents from six countries were analysed; tax systems were seen to vary markedly, reflecting different objectives and histories 25. Data on prices paid and tax collected enabled calculation of the contribution taxes made to the prices paid in both off- and on-premise drinking and allowed comparisons with tobacco taxation. The final paper in this section gives an overview of survey data pertaining to access to alcohol, including by adults and those underage 26. These data supported the findings from the Alcohol Environment Protocol showing ease of access was high and those under the minimum purchase age could purchase alcohol more easily in middle-income countries (except Mongolia). In most of the countries take-away alcohol was a larger proportion of the alcohol market than on-premises drinking, and alcohol was available for access by the majority within 15 min. In the second section, an overview of drinking patterns by age and gender is provided for the 10 IAC countries 27. The patterns varied across countries and the proportion of high-frequency drinkers was higher in high-income countries whereas there were higher odds of drinkers in middle-income countries consuming 8+ drinks for men and 6+ for women (one drink = 15 mL absolute alcohol) on a typical occasion. The ratio of men to women's consumption varied somewhat, but men were the heavier consumers overall. A pattern of increasing frequency with age and declining quantity consumed in a drinking occasion was common but not universal. The relationship between heavy drinking and disadvantage (defined in terms of educational status and living in poverty) is examined in four high-income and three middle-income countries 28. Disadvantage is related to heavier drinking in high-income countries, but the reverse is the case in middle-income countries. A different approach was taken by looking at the alcohol market in each of the 10 countries and calculating what proportion of the market is consumed in harmful drinking occasions 29. These comprised an important component of the market in all countries and were higher in middle-income than in higher-income countries. Informal alcohol was less likely to be consumed in harmful drinking occasions than commercial alcohol. Policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase and liking for marketing) predicted larger typical quantities consumed in on-premise venues in a number of countries, and these behaviours were found to mediate the relationship between demographic characteristics and consumption, particularly in higher income countries 30. Support for alcohol policies among drinkers in seven countries is the subject of the final paper in the Special Issue 31. Across countries differences were found, with a cascade of support for alcohol-control policies, highest in low middle-income and lowest in high-income countries, suggesting the level of support was inversely related to the level of policy implementation. In this series of papers important differences were identified, often related to the level of affluence of the country and, in the case of Vietnam, the presence of a high proportion of informal alcohol. However, the other theme which emerged was the similarities between countries—for example, the easy access to alcohol, the widespread lack of regulation on marketing and the dominance and relative cheapness of take-away alcohol. The data allow comparison with tobacco, for example, in showing the proportion of alcohol's retail price which is made up of tax is much smaller than in the case of tobacco. A similarity with tobacco was the reliance of the industry on harmful use: in all of the countries a significant proportion of the alcohol market was consumed in harmful drinking occasions and this was a larger proportion, over half, in the middle-income countries. This reliance creates a conflict of interest for the producers of alcohol as sales would drop if effective policy reduced harmful drinking occasions and therefore these data support the exclusion of the alcohol industry from the policy environment. The current global context has meant important anticipated policy changes such as the introduction of minimum unit price in Scotland and the legislation banning alcohol marketing in South Africa have been delayed for many years. This has reduced the opportunity for evaluation of policy changes, as envisaged as part of the IAC study. However, the collection of policy-relevant data and the detail provided in the alcohol-consumption data have proven to be useful for individual participating countries and also in international comparisons. The IAC study has provided a research platform for diverse countries to collect alcohol consumption and policy-relevant data in comparable ways. This was achieved by adaptation of the IAC's two research tools, a survey framework and Alcohol Environment Protocol, to allow for country differences. We believe the cross-country analyses presented in the Special Issue of Drug and Alcohol Review provide valid and policy-relevant data to inform national and international policy debate and further research using the IAC platform would be valuable. The International Alcohol Control Study is led by Professor Sally Casswell. The IAC core survey questionnaire was largely developed by researchers at the SHORE & Whāriki Research Centre, College of Health, Massey University, New Zealand, with funding from the Health Promotion Agency, New Zealand. Further development involved collaboration between UK, Thai, Korean and New Zealand researchers. The funding sources for each country are: Australia—Australian National Preventive Health Agency and the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education; England and Scotland—Medical Research Council National Prevention Research Initiative (Grant ref.: MR/J000523/1); New Zealand—The Health Promotion Agency and Health Research Council of New Zealand; St Kitts/Nevis—International Development Research Centre, Canada; Mongolia—World Health Organization; Peru—International Development Research Centre, Canada; South Africa—International Development Research Centre, Canada and South African Medical Research Council; Thailand—International Health Policy Program, Thai Health; Vietnam—International Development Research Centre, Canada. We would also like to acknowledge support from the UK Centre for Tobacco & Alcohol Studies and the excellent work of the interviewers and their supervisors and the time given by the survey respondents.

According to the Rational Threshold View, a rational agent believes p if and only if her credence in p is equal to or greater than a certain threshold. One of the most serious challenges for this view is the problem of statistical evidence: statistical evidence is often not sufficient to make an outright belief rational, no matter how probable the target proposition is given such evidence. This indicates that rational belief is not as sensitive to statistical evidence as rational credence. The aim of this article is twofold. First, we argue that, in addition to playing a decisive role in rationalizing outright belief, non‐statistical evidence also plays a preponderant role in rationalizing credence. More precisely, when both types of evidence are present in a context, non‐statistical evidence should receive a heavier weight than statistical evidence in determining rational credence. Second, based on this result, we argue that a modified version of the Rational Threshold View can avoid the problem of statistical evidence. We conclude by suggesting a possible explanation of the varying sensitivity to different types of evidence for belief and credence based on the respective aims of these attitudes.

Factors associated with public support for alcohol policy in England: a population-based survey

Global warming combined with low carbon transition plans is threatening the future of high energy consumption industry sectors in the European Union (EU). The need to respond to environmental challenges is demonstrated by support for international level energy policies and legal requirements, such as the Kyoto Protocol which the EU supports, and increased EU-level environmental legislation and energy policies. The effect of these initiatives is gradually transforming industrial activities in the EU. However, since not all countries have adopted these policies, evaluation of their net effect needs to take account also of side-effects such as delocalization of industry activity and the legal environmental frameworks in the countries where companies have chosen to relocate. This paper analyses EU energy policy and its impact on a particular energy intensive industry, the European ceramic tile sector. The discussion in this paper is not about the purpose of EU legislation, but about its effects on a specific industry. The effect of policy on industry is not a new topic, but the question of the unwanted effects of environmental and energy policy on European industry is becoming more relevant as the struggle to achieve a post-carbon Europe increases. In focussing on a specific set of EU legislation on a particular industry this article adds to the debate by showing the negative effects of policy mechanisms. The need for a scientific evaluation of the systemic changes required for a transition to a resource-efficient, green and competitive low-carbon economy outlined in the 7th Environment Action Programme is highlighted. It is suggested that the EU should periodically re-evaluate its Emissions Trading Scheme legislation to include specific actions and a follow up system which would prevent the best performing environmental companies from delocalizing or shutting down.