Navigating complexity: integrating political realities into energy system modelling for effective policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The imperative for rapid low-carbon transformations in social and economic systems has heightened reliance on systems modelling to inform decisions. Energy models are pivotal in shaping viable pathways and guiding interventions, thereby influencing policy agendas and public discourse. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, the utilization of model-based analysis for energy planning and policy remains limited, largely due to deficiencies in existing models. Research indicates that many of these models are ill-equipped to capture the context-specific challenges prevalent in African countries. Despite offering valuable insights, most models lack representation of uncertainties associated with political and governance dynamics. These findings underscore the urgent need to enhance domestic institutions’ modelling capabilities. While technical expertise is crucial, this paper contends that, given the inherently political nature of energy policy decisions, modelers must be cognizant of the political landscape in which problems are modelled and solutions are sought. We assert that energy modellers aiming to influence policies must endeavour to comprehend the underlying political economy at the intersection of energy planning and policymaking. Expanding on this premise, we delineate practical steps that modelling teams can adopt to conduct political economy analysis and grasp the factors influencing energy policymaking. By adhering to these steps, we posit that modelling teams could enhance the relevance, realism, and applicability of policy options proposed through modelling efforts.