Navigating ASEAN’s critical materials future: Opportunities, risks and strategic imperatives

Agriculture, food and global value chains: issues, methods and challenges

This policy paper argues the importance of economic assessment on geopolitical tension-related policies and reviews the economic effects of two major policies related to global supply chains (GSCs), tariff war 1.0 and high-tech export control, particularly from the viewpoint of the third countries in a three-country model including ASEAN member states (AMS). It finds that some of the AMS aggressively utilized the wave of supply chain reshuffling and gained positive trade diversion effects. Although it is difficult to predict what policies the second Trump administration would introduce, the dominant strategy for AMS is to take advantage of positive effects to upgrade their position in GSCs. With heightening national security concerns, it may be inevitable to make some parts of the economy restricted. However, the rest of the economy must keep its vigor with GSCs. Middle powers should work with newly developed and developing countries such as AMS through various channels to retain the rules-based trading regime.

This paper analyzes the differing policy responses of Southeast Asian countries – such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines – to the US–China competition over critical mineral resources. It also examines how these countries prioritize various national interests, including economic development, resource security, and policy autonomy. The study finds that Malaysia primarily adopts a light hedging approach, balancing economic cooperation with both the United States and China to maintain the stability and development of the rare earth supply chain. Simultaneously, it leverages external resources to drive industrial modernization, demonstrating high flexibility and policy independence. In contrast, the Philippines, as an upstream supplier of nickel resources, employs a heavier hedging strategy. While deeply embedded in China's supply chain, it gradually attracts investments from the United States and its allies to reduce dependence on a single market. The differences in these strategies reflect how resource‐based Southeast Asian countries adjust their policies to balance economic development and security needs amid geopolitical rivalries based on their resource endowments and supply chain positions. Malaysia's approach emphasizes balance and economic benefits, while the Philippines' strategy highlights dual objectives of resource security and industrial upgrading. Indonesia has also maintained a light hedging strategy in response to US–China strategic competition, prioritizing the development of a critical mineral industry centered on nickel. This approach aims to promote foreign trade and industrial growth in a rational and strategic manner, thereby maximizing economic gains. Vietnam, by contrast, occupies an intermediate position among the three countries, adopting a moderate hedging strategy that leverages its advantage in rare earth and other mineral resources to strengthen cooperation with major powers. However, due to ongoing tensions between China and Vietnam, their cooperation on critical minerals remains uncertain and warrants further observation. With Trump's re‐election and the increasingly intense trade war between China and the United States, critical mineral resources are bound to become a core and crucial point of competition between the two countries in the coming period. Whether it is Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, or the Philippines, adopting relatively independent mineral policies not only helps safeguard their own economic security but also offers valuable lessons and inspiration for other resource‐rich small states in Southeast Asia.

Critical minerals (CMs) such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth metals, are essential to the development of clean energy technologies, electronics, and defense and space industries, among others. Demand for these minerals is expected to grow quickly as energy transitions accelerate. As the post-pandemic economic recovery demonstrated, disturbances in CM supplies can also create serious bottlenecks in global supply-chains. In this study, we develop a GVAR model that can examine the consequences of market disturbances from CM price shocks on major global and country-specific macroeconomic indicators. Counterfactual simulations of a CM price shock suggest that that CMs, as a rising industry, are starting to have an impact on the macro level. The industry and its impacts are not fully developed yet but appear to have diverse implications across countries similar in some respects to the current major commodity – oil. A CM price shock has statistically significant implications for inflation in the UK and South Korea. At the same time, geopolitical shocks to crude oil prices have significant implications for CM prices. The cross-price elasticity of oil with respect to CM prices is positive in the United States, where CM's and oil are substitutes, and negative for Saudi Arabia where CMs and oil are compliments. These scenarios indicate the unsuitability of a one size fits all energy policy and a need for closer examination of the national and country specific relationships between the oil and CM sectors.

PurposeTo delve into the integration of global logistics and supply chain networks amidst the digital transformation era. This study aims to investigate the potential role of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in facilitating the integration of global flows encompassing both tangible goods and intangibles. Additionally, the study seeks to incorporate third-party logistics activities into a comprehensive global logistics and supply chain integration framework.Design/methodology/approachPrior research is synthesised into a global logistics and supply chain integration framework. A case study was undertaken on Yuan Tong (YTO) express group to investigate the framework, employing qualitative data analysis techniques. The study specifically examined the context of the BRI to enhance comprehension of its impact on global supply chains. Information was collected in particular to two types of supply chain flows, the physical flow of goods, and intangible information and cash flows.FindingsThe proposed framework aligns well with the case study, leading to the identification of global logistics and supply chain integration enablers. The results demonstrate a range of ways BRI promotes global logistics and supply chain integration.Research limitations/implicationsThe case study, with multiple examples, focuses on how third-party logistics firms can embrace global logistics and supply chain integration in line with BRI. The case study approach limits generalisation, further applications in different contexts are required to validate the findings.Originality/valueThe framework holds promise for aiding practitioners and researchers in gaining deeper insights into the role of the BRI in global logistics and supply chain integration within the digital era. The identified enablers underscore the importance of emphasising key factors necessary for success in navigating digital transformation within global supply chains.

Critical minerals are the cornerstone of the new round of the industrial revolution. The global division of labor established under the traditional technology, industry, and trade systems is facing a significant restructuring. Global economic and technological changes will lead to a long-term increase in demand for critical minerals. The critical minerals supply chain is rife with political interference and distorted trade practices compared to the robust resource demand. It faces several challenges that threaten the sustainability of the supply chain. We analyze the evolving security connotation of critical minerals supply chains. We also provide an overview of research on quantifying risks of critical minerals from two aspects: security evaluation mechanism and global value chain. The interdisciplinary research techniques and methods are more adapted to the new trends of international competition in critical minerals. The article reviews relevant security risk identification and response research in critical minerals supply chains. It analyzes how to address the risk challenges from national strategies. Finally, the article explores new trends under new technological revolution and industrial change.

Energy storage is a foundational clean energy technology that can enable transformative technologies and lower carbon emissions, especially when paired with renewable energy. However, clean energy transition technologies need completely different supply chains than our current fuel-based supply chains. These technologies will instead require a material-based supply chain that extracts and processes massive amounts of minerals, especially critical minerals, which are classified by how essential they are for the modern economy. In order to develop, operate, and optimize the new material-based supply chain, new decision-making frameworks and tools are needed to design and navigate this new supply chain and ensure we have the materials we need to build the energy system of tomorrow. This work creates a flexible mathematical optimization framework for critical mineral supply chain analysis that, once provided with exogenously supplied projections for parameters such as demand, cost, and carbon intensity, can provide an efficient analysis of a mineral or critical mineral supply chain. To illustrate the capability of the framework, this work also conducts a case study investigating the global lithium supply chain needed for energy storage technologies like electric vehicles (EVs). The case study model explores the investment and operational decisions that a global central planner would consider in order to meet projected lithium demand in one scenario where the objective is to minimize cost and another scenario where the objective is to minimize CO2 emissions. The case study shows there is a 6% cost premium to reduce CO2 emissions by 2%. Furthermore, the CO2 Objective scenario invested in recycling capacity to reduce emissions, while the Cost Objective scenario did not. Lastly, this case study shows that even with a deterministic model and a global central planner, asset utilization is not perfect, and there is a substantial tradeoff between cost and emissions. Therefore, this framework—when expanded to less-idealized scenarios, like those focused on individual countries or regions or scenarios that optimize other important evaluation metrics—would yield even more impactful insights. However, even in its simplest form, as presented in this work, the framework illustrates its power to model, optimize, and illustrate the material-based supply chains needed for the clean energy technologies of tomorrow.

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) is leading the Williston Basin Coal Ore, Rare Earth Elements, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) Initiative, an initiative to drive the expansion and transformation of coal and coal-based resource usage within the Williston Basin to produce rare-earth elements (REEs), critical minerals (CMs), and nonfuel carbon-based products (NFCBPs). This project is the first phase in a long-term program and will set the stage for future work by assessing resource, market, technology, and infrastructure knowledge; identifying knowledge gaps; developing a series of plans to be carried out in future work; and initiating stakeholder engagement. Composed of several tasks, the project seeks to identify, characterize, and assess several necessary aspects vital to make this future work a reality. The most fundamental of these is an understanding of the resources within the Williston Basin to determine if ore extraction has potential. To date, over 1800 sample cores have been compiled and analytical data collected regarding content of REEs and CM potential for economical extraction. These data indicated that there are resources present in the basin, with the dominant elements being scandium (Sc), yttrium (Y), neodymium (Nd), lanthanum (La), and cerium (Ce), with several other elements showing potential. Data collection is continuing. Waste products are also being examined for their potential to provide REEs and CMs. The prominent waste streams identified as large volume and high potential are produced water from oil and gas, flair gas from oil production, and combustion by-products (CBP) from power generation or ash. Materials identified include acids, basic oxides and salts, pure compounds, and a potential for organics, as well as REEs and CMs. China dominates the mining and processing of rare earths. This domination leads to domestic insecurity regarding supply and market price for these materials, and challenges remain in the way of an independent supply chain. The experience of a domestic supply chain is available; however, business and environmental and political factors may make the effort difficult to achieve, especially over a short time frame. Steps examined in the supply chain included mining, concentration, separation, processing, and manufacturing, with separation and processing highlighted specifically as lacking in the domestic industry. Data were examined related to these various steps and identified various scenarios where the industries can be located and profitable in North Dakota or the broader market area. Preliminary review of existing markets for REEs indicates a relatively small industry that is now making headlines because the risk of REE supply disruption is high. The Williston Basin region has robust rail and truck transportation infrastructure, primarily due to agricultural and energy-based industries exporting high volumes of bulk commodities, and is well equipped to handle the logistics required for domestic production of REEs and CMs. Several technologies are being examined for their potential use within the Williston Basin. The technologies include ore extraction, refining and purification, and material upgrading. Over 25 technologies have been identified that may be applicable. Identification of technologies is ongoing. The information being gathered on REE and CM identification through ore deposits and waste streams, business infrastructure, and applicable supply chain technologies will be used to develop necessary plans for the development of one or more technology innovation centers. Examination of eight existing centers, state agencies, and training programs will provide guidance as development for REE and CM innovation continues. Finally, stakeholder outreach and education have been progressing through a series of activities, including website development, conference booth materials, fact sheets, blog posts, and information booklets. Webinars are being conducted to educate the public and stakeholders about REEs, CMs, and the potential impact of industry development in the basin. Several presentations have been given both locally and nationally on the program. The information being gathered indicates that the Williston Basin is in an excellent position to develop its REE and CM assets from carbon ore and waste streams. Through this initiative, the foundation is being laid to provide an economic benefit to the basin and region.

Building responsive and resilient supply chains: Lessons from the <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 disruption

Tackling material constraints on the exponential growth of the energy transition

The fundamental principles of “sustainable development” and “green” promoted by ESG align with the concept of “green and sustainable” development. Enhancing enterprise ESG is a methodical endeavor that necessitates enterprises to possess ESG investment capabilities, coordinate many stakeholders, and leverage the influence of prominent market players. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) possess a specific level of support within a nation’s economy. SOEs serve as a fundamental pillar of China’s socialist economic system with distinctive characteristics, significantly influencing business conduct and reinforcing corporate value orientation. Consequently, the capacity of SOEs to assume a strategic leadership role in enhancing supply chain ESG performance is of paramount importance for the general elevation of ESG standards among Chinese enterprises. Limited research has investigated the transmission effect of the ESG performance among chain enterprises from a supply chain viewpoint, particularly regarding the pivotal role of SOEs in enhancing the ESG performance of these entities. This article examines the influence of SOEs’ ESG performance on the ESG performance of supply chain enterprises, focusing on the spillover effects of SOEs’ ESG performance within the supply chain context. It investigates how SOEs lead upstream and downstream enterprises in enhancing their ESG performance, aiming to address the existing cognitive gap in this area and provide substantial evidence for pertinent theories and practices. This article, employing an empirical research methodology, discovers that the ESG performance of state-owned supply chain core enterprises significantly enhances the ESG performance of enterprises in a supply chain, while non-state-owned supply chain core enterprises do not exhibit this effect. Furthermore, research indicates that this effect is asymmetric: when the supply chain core enterprise is a SOE and the enterprises in the supply chain are non-state-owned, the leading effect is more pronounced, and this effect is more powerful for upstream enterprises. The heterogeneity test reveals that the impact of the ESG performance is more pronounced in larger state-owned supply chain core enterprises that have been publicly listed for an extended duration and operate in highly competitive markets. The conclusions of this essay address the deficiencies of current research and provide significant practical implications for the development of green supply chains in the contemporary era.

The rapid growth of electric vehicles adoption, which plays a crucial role to reduce transportation carbon emissions, is leading to a surge in demand for critical minerals such as cobalt, nickel, lithium, and rare earths. Efforts to systematically address the emerging sustainability issues associated with critical minerals have been challenged by complex mineral supply chains, and the distal and geographically dispersed nature of social-ecological impacts from mineral extraction and processing and eventual use. In this review, we apply a bibliometric analysis of the literature in the 2010–2020 period to analyze the state of research on the issues of critical mineral extraction impacts and the global governance responses. We use the concept of telecoupling to structure our literature search and analysis across four themes: (a) critical minerals global trade and supply chain, (b) sustainability and resource policy and governance, (c) mining corporate social responsibility, and (d) information feedback and public discourse. We find a growing attention to the social-ecological implications of critical mineral extraction, but also fragmentation among thematic domains that could impede progress towards more coordinated system governance. Based on the analyses, the paper concludes with a definition of some research and engagement opportunities around the telecoupling themes.

ASHP Foundation's forecast report feels more relevant than ever this year

Throughout Earth’s history, powerful geological processes have shaped the planet, formed diverse landscapes, and hidden valuable resources. Like silent architects, these processes play a crucial role in creating the world we see today. One important aspect of this geological story is the formation of critical minerals—essential elements for modern technology. These minerals are not random features but are closely tied to the larger narrative of Earth’s evolution. Scientists and engineers are exploring the connections between geological processes and the creation of critical mineral deposits to understand better how to identify, extract, and produce these deposits to help meet the demand for resources considered the building blocks of an electrified future. Used in various applications, from energy production and national defense to transportation and communication technologies (think batteries for electric vehicles, permanent magnets for wind turbine generators), critical minerals are defined as non-fuel minerals or mineral materials essential to economic or national security and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest Critical Minerals Market Review, reported that the record deployment of clean energy technologies has propelled the huge demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. “From 2017 to 2022, the energy sector was the main factor behind a tripling in overall demand for lithium, a 70% jump in demand for cobalt, and a 40% rise in demand for nickel,” the report said. “The market for energy transition minerals reached $320 billion in 2022 and is set for continued rapid growth, moving it increasingly to center stage for the global mining industry.” In the US, critical mineral supply chains are heavily dependent on imports. In 2021, the US was 100% import-reliant for 14 of the 50 critical minerals identified by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in 2022. Additionally, according to the USGS, most of the critical minerals that are essential for meeting decarbonization goals have a net import reliance of greater than 50%. Securing Supply of Rare Earth Elements Critical minerals categorized as rare earth elements (REE) are particularly important to reaching decarbonization goals. With a name reminiscent of science fiction superheroes, the lanthanides are a series of 15 elements—plus scandium and yttrium—collectively regarded as REE. REEs range from light (LREE) to heavy (HREE). While not geologically rare, extraction and processing are complex, expensive, and environmentally hazardous. In addition to being a leading source of critical minerals gallium, germanium, and graphite, China dominates REE production and processing. According to a report by The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the country is home to some of the most productive and lowest-cost REE-containing geological formations, which the government has been developing since the 1970s. China holds 37% of the world’s REE reserves, as compared to the US, which held only 1% of the reserves in 2019. US critical mineral supply chains have the potential to be disrupted by adverse foreign actions, pandemics, natural disasters, and other global events. For this reason, developing domestic resources to secure supply chains and meet future critical mineral demand has become a national priority, with the signing of Executive Order No. 14017 by US President Joe Biden in February 2021.

Contents: Introduction, James Wang, Daniel Olivier, Theo Notteboom and Brian Slack. Part 1 Conceptualization of Port-Cities and Global Supply Chains: Supply chain and supply chain management: appropriate concepts for maritime studies, Valentina Carbone and Elisabeth Gouvernal Global supply chain integration and competitiveness of port terminals, Photis M. Panayides The terminalisation of seaports, Brian Slack Re-assessing port-hinterland relationships in the context of global supply chains, Theo Notteboom and Jean-Paul Rodrigue. Part 2 Shipping Networks and Port Development: The development of global container transhipment terminals, Alfred J. Baird Mediterranean ports in the global network: how to make the hub and spoke paradigm sustainable?, Enrico Musso and Francesco Parola Northern European range: shipping line concentration and port hierarchy, Antoine Fremont and Martin Soppe Factors influencing the landward movement of containers: the cases of Halifax and Vancouver, Robert J. McCalla. Part 3 Inserting Port-Cities into Global Supply Chains: Globalization and the port-urban interface: conflicts and opportunities, Yehuda Hayuth A metageography of port-city relationships, Cesar Ducruet Chinese port-cities in the global supply chains, James Wang and Daniel Olivier The economic performance of seaport regions, Peter W. De Langen. Part 4 Corporate Perspectives on the Insertion of Ports in Global Supply Chains: The success of Asian container port operators: the role of information technology, Daniel Olivier and Francesco Parola Which link in which chain? Inserting Durban into global automotive supply chains, Peter V. Hall and Glen Robbins Sustainable development and corporate strategies of the maritime industry, Claude Comtois and Brian Slack References Index.