Nature requires investment: Applying priority threat management to support biodiversity and climate targets

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian-Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea-level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species.

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario-based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species' observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.

Current investment in conservation is insufficient to adequately protect and recover all ecosystems and species. The challenge of allocating limited funds is acute for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in Canada, which lack a strategic approach to ensure that resources are spent on actions most likely to cost‐effectively recover diminished populations. We applied the Priority Threat Management framework to prioritize strategies most likely to maximize the number of thriving Pacific salmon populations on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. These included 79 genetically, ecologically and spatially distinct population groups called conservation units (CUs) for five salmon species. This region has high salmon biodiversity and spans the territories of four First Nations: the Heiltsuk, Nuxalk, Kitasoo/Xai'xais and Wuikinuxv. Using structured expert elicitation of Indigenous and other experts, we quantified the estimated benefits, costs and feasibility of implementing 10 strategies. Under a business‐as‐usual scenario (i.e. no additional investments in salmon conservation or management), experts predicted that only one in four CUs would have >50% chance of achieving a thriving status within 20 years. Limiting future industrial development in salmon habitats, which was predicted to safeguard CUs from future declines, was identified as the most cost‐effective strategy. Investment in three strategies: (a) removal of artificial barriers to fish migration, (b) watershed protection and (c) stream restoration—at 11.3M CAD per year—was predicted to result in nearly half (34 of 79) of the CUs having a >60% chance of meeting the conservation objective. If all conservation strategies were implemented, experts estimated a >50% probability of achieving a thriving status for 78 of 79 CUs, at an annual cost of 17.3M CAD. However, even with the implementation of all strategies, most sockeye salmon CUs were unlikely to achieve higher probability targets of reaching the objective. Policy implications . We illustrate how Priority Threat Management can incorporate the perspectives and expertise of Indigenous peoples and other experts to prioritize conservation strategies based on their cost, benefit and feasibility. Implementation of this framework can help safeguard and recover Pacific salmon in Canada, and could also be used to prioritize actions for other conservation issues globally.

The European Union is the global forerunner in climate change mitigation policies. The new climate change mitigation targets were set for the European Union (EU) countries following the Energy and climate package targets established for renewable energy sources, energy efficiency improvements, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The European Commission (EC) has revised targets for 2030 several times, following the increased stringency of climate change mitigation commitments. The EU adopted the Climate Law, setting a legally binding goal to achieve a climate-neutral EU society by 2050. The EC agreed on an interim goal of a net 55% GHG emission decrease by 2030 and developed a Fit for 55 package, bringing EU regulations in line with the 2030 goal. The paper aims to analyze new EU climate change mitigation targets and to assess and compare the situation and advancements achieved by the Baltic States. The new targets for renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and GHG emission decrease for the Baltic States were analyzed, and progress achieved was evaluated on the basis of data provided in the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) submitted to the EC.

Using data on the iconic orangutan (Pongo spp.), we developed a novel spatiotemporal framework for evaluating conservation investments. We show that around USD 1 billion was invested between 1999 and 2019 into orangutan conservation by governments, non-governmental organizations, companies and communities. Broken down by allocation to different conservation strategies, we find that habitat protection, patrolling and public outreach had the greatest return-on-investment for maintaining orangutan populations. Given variability in threats, land-use opportunity costs, and baseline remunerations in different regions, there were differential benefits-per-dollar invested across conservation activities and regions. We show, for the first time, that, while challenging from a data and analysis perspective, it is possible to fully understand the relationships between conservation investments and outcomes, and the external factors that influence these outcomes. Such analyses can provide improved guidance towards more effective biodiversity conservation, an increasingly urgent global challenge. Insights into the spatiotemporal interplays between the costs and benefits driving effectiveness can inform decisions about the most suitable orangutan conservation strategies for halting population declines. While our study focuses on the three extant orangutan species of Sumatra and Borneo, our findings have broad application for evidence-based conservation science and practice.

Effectiveness of 20 years of conservation investments in protecting orangutans

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery

Threats to migratory birds, and actions for their conservation

Many national governments have incorporated nature‐based solutions (NbS) in their plans to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. However, uncertainties persist regarding both feasibility and consequences of major NbS deployment. Using the United Kingdom as a national‐level case study, we examined the potential contribution of three terrestrial NbS: peatland restoration, saltmarsh creation and woodland creation. While there is substantial political and societal interest in these three NbS, they also have strong potential for competition with other land uses, which will be a critical barrier to substantial deployment. We conducted a national mapping exercise to assess the potential area available for woodland creation. We then assessed the combined climate change mitigation potential to 2100 for the three NbS options under a range of ambition levels. In line with the most ambitious targets examined, 2 Mha of land is potentially available for new woodland. However, climate change mitigation benefits of woodland are strongly dependent on management choices. By 2100, scenarios with a greater proportion of broadleaved woodlands outsequester non‐native conifer plantations, which are limited by regular timber harvesting. Peatland restoration offers the greatest mitigation per unit area, whilst the contribution from saltmarsh creation is limited by the small areas involved. Overall, the contribution of these NbS to the United Kingdom’s net zero emissions target is relatively modest. Even with the most ambitious targets considered here, by 2100, the total cumulative mitigation from the three NbS is equivalent to only 3 years' worth of UK emissions at current levels. Policy implications. Major deployment of nature‐based solutions (NbS) is possible in the United Kingdom but reaching ‘net zero’ primarily requires substantial and sustained reductions in fossil fuel use. However, facilitating these NbS at the national scale could offer many additional benefits for people and biodiversity. This demands that policy‐makers commit to a UK‐wide strategic approach that prioritises the ‘nature’ aspect of NbS. In the push to reach ‘net zero’, climate change mitigation should not be used to justify land management practices that threaten biodiversity ambitions.

Quantifying the effectiveness of habitat management to counter local extinction: A case-study on capercaillie

<em>Abstract.</em>—The landscape for policy and management of fish habitat is changing. The historic focus on evaluating environmental impact assessments for large projects, and issuing (or not) permits for small projects is being supplanted by new expectations for habitat managers and policy makers. Many of these new expectations are rooted in the adoption of an ecosystem approach to management of diverse human activities, including fisheries, in aquatic ecosystems, combined with a growing emphasis on integrated management of those human activities, in turn aided by spatial planning and spatial management approaches in many fields. These new expectations placed on habitat managers and policy makers create the need for expanded support from a new blending of habitat and population sciences. Historically, it may have been sufficient to use science advice based on relative indices of habitat quality and carefully assembled expert opinion as the basis for many tasks in habitat policy and management. Such tools now must be augmented by much more quantitative science advice, to allow for setting operational objectives for managing habitats, assessing the quality and quantity of critical or essential habitat for protected or exploited fish populations, conducting risk assessments of projects and mitigation measures, making siting decisions about marine protected areas and other spatial zoning measures, and many other tasks in which habitat managers and policy makers must participate. Science advice now must be able to quantify the relationships between habitat features and population status and productivity, as well with community properties such as resilience and vulnerability. This advice has to capture the uncertainty in the relationships and data sources, in forms that fit comfortably into risk assessments. Tools for forward projection of the habitat consequences of management options are needed, as are tools for cost-benefit analyses of tradeoffs among different types of habitats for different groups of aquatic species. None of these analytical challenges is beyond the scope of modern statistical and modelling capabilities, and current ecological concepts. Few of them can be met by existing tools and data-bases however. Moreover, many of the conceptual approaches to aquatic habitat management have been imported from terrestrial habitat management. They may have served adequately for management of riverine and marine benthic habitats, but some of the fundamental conceptual starting points are being questioned for marine and lacustrine habitats more generally. The paper brings out both some promising opportunities and some difficult challenges for the science needed to support contemporary habitat management and policy.

Using ecological theory to develop recovery criteria for an endangered butterfly

Conservation interventions in developing countries are frequently thwarted by socio-economic agendas, severely limiting the scope and rigor of biodiversity and habitat conservation. Very few ecological assessments incorporate human interests in conservation prioritization, creating asynchrony between planning and implementation. For conservation actions to be logistically feasible, multiple criteria including ecological, social, economic and administrative aspects must be considered. Understanding how these different dimensions interact spatially is also important for gauging the potential for conservation success. Here, we use a guild of select mammalian carnivores (wild canids and hyenas) in India to (i) generate distribution maps at the spatial scale of administrative sub-districts, that are relevant to management, (ii) examine ecological, social and biogeographic factors associated with their distribution, assess key threats, and identify areas important for their conservation, (iii) use prioritization tools for balancing habitat conservation, human needs and economic growth, and (iv) evaluate the spatial congruence between areas with high conservation potential, and areas currently in focus for protection efforts, conservation investments, and infrastructure development. We find that the current Protected Area system does not adequately cover or represent diverse habitats, that there is immense potential for States to increase financial investments towards alternative conservation strategies, and, most infrastructure projects may be potentially jeopardizing important carnivore habitats where the two overlap. Our framework allowed for identifying locations where conservation investments would lead to the highest benefits for carnivores as flagships, which also benefit other species across habitats. We make a case for re-evaluating how large-scale prioritization assessments are made, and for broadening the purview of conservation policies in India and other developing countries.

In many regions species are declining due to fragmentation and loss of habitat. If species persistence is to be achieved, ecologically informed, effective conservation action is required. Yet it remains a challenge to identify optimal places in a landscape to direct habitat reconstruction and management. Rather than relying on individual landscape metrics, process-based regional scale assessment methodology is needed that focuses primarily on species persistence. This means integrating, according to species' ecology, habitat extent, suitability, quality and spatial configuration. The rapid evaluation of metapopulation persistence (REMP) methodology has been developed for this purpose. However, till now no practical conservation planning application of REMP has been described. By integration of expert ecological knowledge, we extended REMP's capabilities to prioritize conservation action for a highly modified agricultural region of central NSW, Australia based on the metapopulation ecology of 34 fauna species. The region's current capacity to support the species was evaluated in relation to the pre-European state for which there was known viability. Six of the species were found to currently have insufficient habitat to support viable populations. Seeking locations to maximize overall improvement in viability for these species, we prioritized conservation action to locations near the threshold of metapopulation persistence.

Planning for Australian threatened species’ recovery