Natural Gas Resources of the United States

Abstract

Abstract Natural gas requirements in the United States increased from 4 trillion cu ft in 1946 to 16.0 trillion in 1965. Projected demand calls for more than 25 trillion cu ft in 1980—1.5 times the consumption in 1965. The nation will have consumed 320 trillion cu ft of natural gas by 1980; this exceeds the estimated proved recoverable reserves at the end of 1965 by more than 30 trillion cu ft. Potential supplies consist of estimated recoverable reserves replenished by new discoveries, extensions, and revisions; at the end of 1965, proved recoverable reserves in the United States were estimated to be 286.5 trillion cu ft. Trends in reserve/production (R/P) ratio—estimated recoverable reserves divided by production for a given year—are important; a continuing downward trend indicates the industry can not meet demand because of decline in peak productivity. A declining trend can be decelerated or reversed provided that there is natural gas to be found, there is adequate incentive to find it, and technology permits its discovery, development, and production. Total future potential supply consists of estimated proved recoverable reserves and undiscovered future supplies. Undiscovered potential supplies consist of several categories of increasing uncertainty (1) development of known deposits—lateral or vertical extensions, and revisions of estimates; (2) new discoveries in geologic provinces and formations, and types of traps already proved productive; (3) in geologic provinces known to be productive, but in remote areas, in new types of accumulation, and/or in formations not known previously to be productive in that area; and (4) the most speculative may be found in provinces or basins which have not yielded gas previously. The estimation of undiscovered potential future supply at any particular time is strictly a problem in geology and reservoir engineering. Natural gas is found in rocks and not in mathematical curves, formulae, or economic theory. Most estimates extant have been based on questionable methods and have used obsolete and conflicting data. How should the potential future supply of natural gas be forecast? There are two fundamental factors on which to rely—thorough knowledge of the relationship of natural gas to the detailed geology of each area examined, and experience. The Supply Division of the Future Gas Requirements and Supply Comm. of North America is composed of nearly 100 skilled, experienced geologists and engineers, each assigned to study and analyze a local area of which he is completely knowledgeable. Useful estimates of undiscovered potential future supply, like those of proved reserves, are dynamic and must be reviewed frequently in light of changing conditions. The Committee is satisfied that an adequate supply of natural gas can be made available continuously within the foreseeable future provided that there is adequate incentive coupled with technological progress.