NATO's reassurance and the willingness to defend one’s country: survey evidence from Latvia

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ABSTRACT Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brings into question the significance of people’s willingness to defend their respective countries. While there have been many studies of various domestic-level factors that affect the willingness to defend one’s country, we explore the willingness to fight and defend in the NATO context. We claim that in cases of extreme military asymmetry, citizens’ willingness to defend their country depends largely on the extent to which they feel reassured by allies that military assistance will be provided in the case of armed aggression. Our study demonstrates this relationship by focusing on the case of Russia and Latvia. Using recent surveys from Latvia, we show that confidence in NATO security guarantees strongly boosts a society’s willingness to defend its country, both individually and at the national level. We conclude that while NATO deterrent effects vis-à-vis Russia remain uncertain, the effects with respect to reassuring the Latvian population are very important. Our study also points to several other crucial factors that affect citizens’ willingness to defend their country, such as confidence in the military and the government, views on an opponent’s military dominance, as well as patriotism and a strong sense of belonging to the country.