National intelligence and science: beyond the great divide in analysis and policy. By Wilhelm Agrell and Gregory F. Treverton

Abstract

It is a truism of the contemporary era (and indeed probably all eras) that the world is an increasingly dangerous and complicated place. The role of intelligence within that complex and dangerous arena has hitherto mostly centred on the collection, analysis and dissemination of secret information to assist in the mitigation of threats. This book rightly acknowledges that there is a chasm between the reality and what western publics expect of intelligence forecasting and threat mitigation: the gap exists and so successful attacks degrade public confidence and create political pressure. Wilhelm Agrell and Gregory Treverton seek to break ground within intelligence studies in asserting that the more productive aim of intelligence practitioners and the governments they serve should be the management of risk and uncertainty in areas that are critical for national and international security. They convincingly argue that the established practices of intelligence are inadequate for dealing with the sorts of rapidly transforming threats that we now see. Furthermore, they argue that intelligence practice is trapped between the unpredictability of the emergent threats (cyber, hybrid and asymmetric threats) and the need for accurate assessments, delivered to compressed timelines, about imminent dangers or those appearing on the horizon. The essence of intelligence, which is to blend incomplete information into an accurate account of the unknown is similar to areas of contested natural and physical science.