气候变化对中国东北地区日本松干蚧传播扩散的影响

Abstract

基于气候资料和日本松干蚧传播资料,根据传播扩散范围及入侵地的气候特征,分析了日本松干蚧主要影响因子的年代变化对日本松干蚧在东北地区扩散的影响.结果表明:东北地区最冷月各旬及月平均最低气温总的呈升高趋势(<em>r</em>=0.86,<em>P</em> < 0.05),冬季极端最低气温也有缓慢上升趋势(<em>r</em>=0.93,<em>P</em> < 0.01),其年代间的冷暖变化与日本松干蚧在东北地区扩散有明显的相关性.1月平均最低气温和冬季极端最低气温明显升高的20世纪70年代和90年代,日本松干蚧快速扩散、危害地虫口密度大、危害程度重.日本松干蚧大范围扩散和爆发都发生在1月份最低气温较高的年份.1月最低气温和冬季极端最低气温升高是日本松干蚧在东北地区传播扩散的重要因素.复苏后的降水量、卵孵化期的空气相对湿度和夏季最高气温的年代变化对日本松干蚧扩散的影响不显著.;Based on the material of climate and Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersal, according to the dispersal areas and the climate characteristics of the place infested, the effect was analyzed about the main meteorological factors to Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersal in the northeastern China. The results showed that: the mean-minimum-temperature of every ten-day and month of January presented the increasing trend (<em>r</em>=0.86,<em>P</em> < 0.05). The extreme-minimum-temperature in winter increased(<em>r</em>=0.93,<em>P</em> < 0.01) slowly,too. The changes in temperature of the years had something to do with Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersal in the northeast of China. The more rapidly was Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersed, the higher had the pest population density and had the more serious extent of injury when the mean-minimum-temperature and the extreme-minimum-temperature in January were increased evidently in the 1970s and the 1990s of last century. Therefore there was a significant correlation between the minimum-temperature and Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersal. The higher the ten-year of the mean-minimum-temperature was, the faster Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersal was. The lower the minimum-temperature was, the slower its dispersal was. The great range of dispersal and outbreaking of Matsucoccus matsumurae took place in the years of high minimum-temperature in January. The minimum-temperature in January and the extreme-minimum-temperature in winter increasing were the main factors of Matsucoccus matsumurae dispersal. There was no relation between dispersal and variation of precipitation after conscious, air relative humidity and the maximum summer temperature.