中国冬季极端低温事件与海温和海冰的关系

Abstract

本文利用站点资料和再分析资料分析中国冬季南、北方区域极端低温事件与海温和海冰的关系。研究发现，中国南、北方区域极端低温频数下降趋势与全球变暖有关，极端低温频数的线性趋势与印度洋和北大西洋海温异常呈负相关，还与前期边缘海海冰特别是格陵兰–巴伦支海海冰异常呈正相关。对于北方区域，在年代际变化尺度上，极端低温事件偏多时，冬季北太平洋海温表现为北负南正的异常分布，格陵兰–巴伦支海海冰呈正异常。在年际变化尺度上，冬季北太平洋中部与北美西岸海域海温出现西负东正的异常分布，北美东岸海温表现为负异常，楚科奇海和新瓦尔巴群岛以北海区海冰呈负异常。对南方区域，在年代际变化尺度上，极端低温事件偏多与PDO冷位相有关，并与格陵兰海和白令海海冰异常呈正相关，其他海区海冰异常呈负相关。在年际变化尺度上，前期阿拉斯加湾和白令海海区异常偏冷，对应着冬季南方区域极端低温事件偏多，另外还与冬季太平洋扇区海冰异常存在显著负相关关系。 Based on the dataset of daily minimum temperature in China during 1961-2010 and reanalysis data, the relationship between winter extreme minimum temperature (EMT) frequency and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice is analyzed. Research shows that, the decline of EMT fre-quency both in the north and south of China is associated with global warming. The linear trend has a negative correlation with the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and India Ocean, and can be preceded by melting of the marginal sea ice, especially in the Greenland-Barents Sea ice during the preceding summer and autumn. For the north of China, its inter-decadal (ID) component may be affected by North Pacific SST anomalies which has a north-negative and south-positive distribution, and has a positive correlation with Greenland-Barents sea ice. While inter-annual (IA) component has a significant negative correlation with the SST anomalies along the east coast of North American and the anomalous SST between the subtropical North Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska represents a distribution of the dipole oscillation. And it is also affected by the sea ice melting in Chukchi Sea and Sea area in the north of Svalbard. On the other hand, for the south of China, its ID component is remarkable influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It also has a negative correlation with the marginal sea ice except the Greenland Sea and the Bering Sea. Beyond the IA time scale, the SST anomalies over the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska prelude the anomalous winter EMT in the south of China. In addition, it also has a significant negative correlation with Pacific sector sea ice.