Abstract
In order to assess the probability of the occurrence of future large earthquakes based upon the past activities of active faults, we divided active faults into behavioral segments, and adopted the cascade earthquake model, that is, a model that considers that an earthquake is sometimes caused by a single segment and sometimes caused by multiple segments. Using this model, we can evaluate the rupture probability of active faults by a uniform standard without any inconsistencies with field data. The result was published as the Rupture Probability Map of Major Active Faults in Japan.
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