Multivariate representations of univariate marked Hawkes processes

The occurrence patterns of important words found in six texts (one historical pamphlet and five renowned academic books) are analyzed using both univariate and multivariate Hawkes processes. By treating the occurrence patterns as binary time-series data along the texts, we investigate how effectively univariate and multivariate Hawkes processes capture the characteristics of these word occurrence signals. Through maximum likelihood estimation and subsequent simulations, we found that the multivariate Hawkes process clearly outperforms the univariate Hawkes process in modeling word occurrence signals. Moreover, we found that the multivariate Hawkes process can provide a Hawkes graph, which serves as an intuitive representation of the relationships between concepts appearing in the analyzed text. Furthermore, our study demonstrates that the importance of concepts within a given text can be quantitatively estimated based on the optimized parameter values of the multivariate Hawkes process.

Hawkes processes have become very popular in modeling multiple recurrent user-item interaction events that exhibit mutual-excitation properties in various domains. Generally, modeling the interaction sequence of each user-item pair as an independent Hawkes process is ineffective since the prediction accuracy of future event occurrences for users and items with few observed interactions is low. On the other hand, multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) can be used to handle multi-dimensional random processes where different dimensions are correlated with each other. However, an MHP either fails to describe the correct mutual influence between dimensions or become computational inhibitive in most real-world events involving a large collection of users and items. To tackle this challenge, we propose local low-rank Hawkes processes to model large-scale user-item interactions, which efficiently captures the correlations of Hawkes processes in different dimensions. In addition, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm to estimate model parameters and present a parallel algorithm to further increase the computation efficiency. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the performance improvements of our model in comparison with the state of the art.

Hawkes processes have become very popular in modeling multiple recurrent user–item interaction events that exhibit mutual-excitation properties in various domains. Generally, modeling the interaction sequence of each user–item pair as an independent Hawkes process is ineffective since the prediction accuracy of future event occurrences for users and items with few observed interactions is low. On the other hand, multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) can be used to handle multi-dimensional random processes where different dimensions are correlated with each other. However, an MHP either fails to describe the correct mutual influence between dimensions or become computational inhibitive in most real-world events involving a large collection of users and items. To tackle this challenge, we propose local low-rank Hawkes processes to model large-scale user–item interactions, which efficiently captures the correlations of Hawkes processes in different dimensions. In addition, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm to estimate model parameters and present a parallel algorithm to further increase the computation efficiency. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the performance improvements of our model in comparison with the state of the art.

We show that multivariate Hawkes processes coupled with the nonparametric estimation procedure first proposed in Bacry and Muzy [IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2016, 62, 2184–2202] can be successfully used to study complex interactions between the time of arrival of orders and their size observed in a limit order book market. We apply this methodology to high-frequency order book data of futures traded at EUREX. Specifically, we demonstrate how this approach is amenable not only to analyse interplay between different order types (market orders, limit orders, cancellations) but also to include other relevant quantities, such as the order size, into the analysis, showing also that simple models assuming the independence between volume and time are not suitable to describe the data.

This work contributes to the theory of Hawkes processes. We introduce and study a new class of Hawkes processes that we call generalized Hawkes processes, and their special subclass – the generalized multivariate Hawkes processes (GMHPs). GMHPs are multivariate marked point processes that add an important feature to the family of the (classical) multivariate Hawkes processes: they allow for explicit modeling of simultaneous occurrence of excitation events coming from different sources, i.e., caused by different coordinates of the multivariate process.

We consider the random splitting and aggregating of Hawkes processes. We present the random splitting schemes using the direct approach for counting processes, as well as the immigration–birth branching representations of Hawkes processes. From the second scheme, it is shown that random split Hawkes processes are again Hawkes. We discuss functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for the scaled split processes from the different schemes. On the other hand, aggregating multivariate Hawkes processes may not necessarily be Hawkes. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition for the aggregated process to be Hawkes. We prove an FCLT for a multivariate Hawkes process under a random splitting and then aggregating scheme (under certain conditions, transforming into a Hawkes process of a different dimension).

Neuronal network inference and membrane potential model using multivariate Hawkes processes

When analyzing real-world event data, it is often the case that bin-count processes are observed instead of precise event time-stamps along a continuous timeline, owing to practical limitations in measurement accuracy. In this work, we propose a modeling framework for aggregated event data generated by multivariate Hawkes processes. The introduced model, termed the coarse-grained Hawkes process, effectively captures the second-order statistical characteristics of the bin-count representation of the Hawkes process, particularly when the bin size is large relative to the typical support of the excitation kernel. Building upon this model, we develop a method for inferring the underlying Hawkes process from bin-count observations, and demonstrate through simulation studies that the proposed approach performs comparably to, or even surpasses, existing techniques, while maintaining computational efficiency in parameter estimation.

Some limit theorems for Hawkes processes and application to financial statistics

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are classic methods to learn temporal patterns in event sequences of different entities. Traditional MHPs with explicit parametric intensity functions are friendly to model interpretability. However, recent Deep MHPs which employ various variants of recurrent neural networks are hardly to understand, albeit more expressive towards event sequences. The lack of model interpretability of Deep MHPs leads to a limited comprehension of complicated dynamics between events. To this end, we present a new Disentangled Deep Multivariate Hawkes Process $(\mathrm{D}^{2}$ MHP) to enhance model expressiveness and meanwhile maintain model interpretability. $\mathrm{D}^{2}$ MHP achieves state disentanglement by disentangling the latent representation of an event sequence into static and dynamic latent variables, and matches these latent variables to interpretable factors in the intensity function. Moreover, considering that an entity typically has multiple identities, $\mathrm{D}^{2}$ MHP further splits these latent variables into factorized representations, each of which is associated with a corresponding identity. Experiments on real-world datasets show that $\mathrm{D}^{2}$ MHP yields significant and consistent improvements over state-of-the-art baselines. We also demonstrate model interpretability via the detailed analysis.

As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate i.i.d. stationary sample paths of multivariate Hawkes process without any transient bias. In addition, we provide an explicit expression of algorithm complexity in model and algorithm parameters and provide numerical schemes to find the optimal parameter set that minimizes the complexity of the perfect sampling algorithm.

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes where an arrival in one dimension can affect the future arrivals in all dimensions. Existing MHPs are associated with homogeneouslink functions. However, in reality, different dimensions may exhibit different temporal characteristics. In this paper, we augment MHPs by incorporating heterogeneouslink functions, referred to as hybrid MHPs, to capture the temporal characteristics in different dimensions. Since the branching structure can be utilized to equivalently represent MHPs, we propose a novel model called BRUNCH via intensity-driven Chinese Restaurant Processes (intCRP) to identify the optimal branching structure of hybrid MHPs. Furthermore, we relax the constraint on the shapes of triggering kernels in MHPs. We develop a Monte Carlo-based inference algorithm called MEDIA to infer the branching structure. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of BRUNCH and its usefulness in social media applications.

In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular in empirical high-frequency finance this last decade. After a reminder of the main definitions and properties that characterize Hawkes processes, we review their main empirical applications to address many different problems in high-frequency finance. Because of their great flexibility and versatility, we show that they have been successfully involved in issues as diverse as estimating the volatility at the level of transaction data, estimating the market stability, accounting for systemic risk contagion, devising optimal execution strategies or capturing the dynamics of the full order book.

A Hawkes process is also known under the name of a self-exciting point process and has numerous applications throughout science and engineering. We derive the statistical estimation (maximum likelihood estimation) and goodness-of-fit (mainly graphical) for multivariate Hawkes processes with possibly dependent marks. As an application, we analyze two data sets from finance.

It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from limitations on recording capabilities and the expense of storing high volumes of precise data. In order to gain a better understanding of the relationships between processes, we consider modelling the aggregated event data using multivariate Hawkes processes, which offer a description of mutually-exciting behaviour and have found wide applications in areas including seismology and finance. Here we generalise existing methodology on parameter estimation of univariate aggregated Hawkes processes to the multivariate case using a Monte Carlo expectation–maximization (MC-EM) algorithm and through a simulation study illustrate that alternative approaches to this problem can be severely biased, with the multivariate MC-EM method outperforming them in terms of MSE in all considered cases.