Multivariate Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model for the Bridge Multidimensional Fragility Analysis

Abstract

Seismic fragility analysis for bridges is an essential issue for risk assessment of transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. Considering multiple Performance Limit States (PLSs) and seismic demand parameters, the study proposes a multidimensional fragility evaluation methodology for engineering structures, and the objective of the paper is to show that the uncertainty and dependence between seismic demand parameters should be considered for fragility analysis. Thus, a new Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model (PSDM) following multivariate logarithmic normal distribution is addressed. Taking PLS correlation into consideration, multidimensional PLS formula is constructed to identify the structural failure domain. A RC bridge is studied to show the proposed theory. To consider bridge column plastic deformation and bearing nonlinear characteristic, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out. The bridge multidimensional fragility curves are derived and compared with fragility curves for an individual component. Results indicate that uncertainty and dependence of demand parameters can be properly dealt with by the multivariate PSDM. The multidimensional fragility is higher than fragility of any individual component, and the bridge as a system is more fragile. The ignorance of multiple components contribution to the system will generate an overestimation for the whole structural performance, which is adverse to engineering structural safety.