Multivariable time series classification for clinical mastitis detection and prediction in automated milking systems

Abstract

In this study, we developed a machine learning framework to detect clinical mastitis (CM) at the current milking (i.e., the same milking) and predict CM at the next milking (i.e., one milking before CM occurrence) at the quarter level. Time series quarter-level milking data were extracted from an automated milking system (AMS). For both CM detection and prediction, the best classification performance was obtained from the decision tree-based ensemble models. Moreover, applying models on a data set containing data from the current milking and past 9 milkings before the current milking showed the best accuracy for detecting CM; modeling with a data set containing data from the current milking and past 7 milkings before the current milking yielded the best results for predicting CM. The models combined with oversampling methods resulted in specificity of 95 and 93% for CM detection and prediction, respectively, with the same sensitivity (82%) for both scenarios; when lowering specificity to 80 to 83%, undersampling techniques facilitated models to increase sensitivity to 95%. We propose a feasible machine learning framework to identify CM in a timely manner using imbalanced data from an AMS, which could provide useful information for farmers to manage the negative effects of CM.