Multiscale association between large‐scale climate variability modes and drought in India via wavelet analysis

Abstract

AbstractExtreme events, such as droughts, are influenced by climate variability modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi‐decadal oscillation (AMO) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO). Due to the significant interdependency among the climatic indices at various frequencies, a time‐frequency framework is necessary to better understand the teleconnection. The present study evaluates the association between climate variability modes and drought index in India using different variants of wavelet analysis such as wavelet coherence analysis (WCA), partial wavelet coherence analysis (PWCA), multiple wavelet coherence analysis (MWCA) and wavelet reconstruction methods. In this study, four major climatic indices (ENSO, PDO, AMO, EQUINOO) and the drought index, standard precipitation index (SPI), at four different monthly time periods (1, 3, 6 and 12) are considered. The results from the WCA analysis highlight significant teleconnection spectra for ENSO, PDO and EQUINOO at 2–8, 8–16 and 16–32 year time‐frequency bands. Further, PWCA results reveal significant interdependency in the teleconnection of ENSO and PDO at all the scales, while ENSO and EQUINOO are found to be independent modes of interannual drought variability in India. Finally, MWCA results show that the combination of EQUINOO and ENSO better explains the interannual variability of droughts in Northwest and Central northeast India. The results of this study will help improve drought prediction and early warning systems in India, by selection of appropriate climatic oscillations for different regions in India.