Multi-scale approach to Euro-Atlantic climatic cycles based on phenological time series, air temperatures and circulation indexes

Abstract

The spectral periods in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed and has been verified how they imprint a time series of European temperature anomalies (ETA), two European temperature time series and some phenological series (dates of cherry flowering and grapevine harvest). Such work had as reference scenario the linear causal chain MCTP (Macroscale Circulation→Temperature→Phenology of crops) that links oceanic and atmospheric circulation to surface air temperature which in its turn determines the earliness of appearance of phenological phases of plants.Results show that in the three segments of the MCTP causal chain are present cycles with the following central period in years (the % of the 12 analyzed time series interested by these cycles are in brackets): 65 (58%), 24 (58%), 20.5 (58%), 13.5 (50%), 11.5 (58%), 7.7 (75%), 5.5 (58%), 4.1 (58%), 3 (50%), 2.4 (67%). A comparison with short term spectral peaks of the four El Niño regions (nino1+2, nino3, nino3.4 and nino4) show that 10 of the 12 series are imprinted by periods around 2.3–2.4yr while 50–58% of the series are imprinted by El Niño periods of 4–4.2, 3.8–3.9, 3–3.1years. The analysis highlights the links among physical and biological variables of the climate system at scales that range from macro to microscale whose knowledge is crucial to reach a suitable understanding of the ecosystem behavior.The spectral analysis was also applied to a time series of spring – summer precipitation in order to evaluate the presence of peaks common with other 12 selected series with result substantially negative which brings us to rule out the existence of a linear causal chain MCPP (Macroscale Circulation→Precipitation→Phenology).