Multilevel analysis of climate change risk perception in Europe: Natural hazards, political contexts and mediating individual effects

Abstract

This article looks into the complex structure of factors which determine public risk perceptions of climate change, combining individual level indicators (related to social structures) and macro level indicators (at country level) related to countries’ exposures to natural hazards and national political contexts. The article employs survey data from the 2017 Special Eurobarometer 459 (87.1) and country-level statistical data on political contexts and climate-related hazards. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regressions were applied. The results of the research indicate that few macro level variables related to natural hazards can significantly explain climate change risk perceptions (like temperature increases or water deficit), and political contexts at the macro level do not significantly explain the variance in the levels of concern about climate change. However, individual level variables (education and political orientation) significantly mediate how natural hazards and political contexts influence climate change risk perception. People with higher education levels have higher concerns about climate change in countries that are more vulnerable to floods and droughts, and left-leaning voters in countries with higher democracy indices and better climate policies demonstrate higher levels of climate change risk perception. Scientific literacy is an important factor in shaping public opinions and concerns about climate change, particularly with regard to the complex understanding of natural factors of climate change; having a clear political orientation helps people to reflect on the national political contexts of climate change.