Multi-scale evaluation and multi-scenario simulation analysis of regional energy carrying capacity—Case study: China

Abstract

The analysis of energy carrying capacity (ECC) is an important basis for measuring the sustainable development level of regional energy carrying systems (ECS) and the selection of regional development models. This study establishes a regional ECS structure model from four subsystems: energy resources, economic development, social development, and ecological environment. The synergistic development relationship between subsystems and the feedback relationship between key elements are analyzed. Using a system dynamics model, the catastrophe progression method and the coupling coordination model are applied to rate the ECC and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of China's ECS from 2004 to 2018. Furthermore, the status continuation scenario (SCS), policy planning scenario (PPS), strengthen policy scenario (SPS), and policy comparison scenario (PCS) are set up to carry out the multi-scenario simulation of China's ECC, and ECC and CCD in four scenarios from 2019 to 2050 are analyzed. The results reveal that from 2004 to 2018, the socioeconomic, the energy resources, and the energy environment carrying capacities to varying degrees, and the level of China's ECC and CCD increased year by year. It entered a comparably weak carrying level in 2010 and optimized from the uncoordinated stage to the primary coordinated stage in 2008. From 2019 to 2050, the ECC will reach the platform period in 2036 under PPS, and under SPS and PCS it will reach the platform period in 2030; the ECC stages and development coordination optimization nodes are both manifested as that SPS is the earliest, PCS is second, and PPS is the latest. In the future development process, it is recommended that take PPS as the bottom line and SPS as the goal, with high carrying capacity and superior coordinated stages as the guide, and the sustainable development capacity supported by ECS should be strengthened.