MP42-04 A NOMOGRAM TO PREDICT RECURRENT STRICTURE IN PATIENTS AFTER UPPER URINARY TRACT RECONSTRUCTION SURGERY

Abstract

You have accessJournal of UrologyCME1 Apr 2023MP42-04 A NOMOGRAM TO PREDICT RECURRENT STRICTURE IN PATIENTS AFTER UPPER URINARY TRACT RECONSTRUCTION SURGERY Wei Zuo, Xinfei Li, Zhihua Li, Kunlin Yang, Qi Tang, Hongjian Zhu, Peng Zhang, Bing Wang, Yaming Gu, Yingzhi Diao, Liqun Zhou, and Xuesong Li Wei ZuoWei Zuo More articles by this author , Xinfei LiXinfei Li More articles by this author , Zhihua LiZhihua Li More articles by this author , Kunlin YangKunlin Yang More articles by this author , Qi TangQi Tang More articles by this author , Hongjian ZhuHongjian Zhu More articles by this author , Peng ZhangPeng Zhang More articles by this author , Bing WangBing Wang More articles by this author , Yaming GuYaming Gu More articles by this author , Yingzhi DiaoYingzhi Diao More articles by this author , Liqun ZhouLiqun Zhou More articles by this author , and Xuesong LiXuesong Li More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000003280.04AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Recurrent ureteral stricture was relatively common in a small number of patients after upper urinary tract reconstruction. It has been reported that many factors may affect the success rates. However, none of them reached a consensus toward the prediction of ureteral stricture recurrence. The aim was to build a useful and practical nomogram for predicting the recurrence of stricture patients after upper urinary tract reconstitution surgeries. METHODS: We studied a retrospective cohort of 237 patients diagnosed with hydronephrosis and received upper urinary tract reconstruction surgery from 2017 to 2021. We developed the nomogram from a derivation cohort including 134 patients from one center. The validation cohort involved 103 patients from other three centers. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort, three candidate predictors were entered into the final prognostic model: the ratio of postoperative urea nitrogen to preoperative urea nitrogen (p=0.026, HR=0.025), time of removing DJ tube after operation (p=0.049, HR=0.234), preoperative severe hydronephrosis (p<0.0001, HR=6.518), which was developed as a best-simplified nomogram for 1-year prognosis, named as HDU. The model had good predictive ability with a C-index of 0.811. The HDU model had an area under the curve of 0.886 in the internal derivation cohort and 0.718 in the external validation cohort. The calibration plots showed a good agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes in both derivation cohort and validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram HDU showed good predictive ability through internal validation and external validation, as a methodological exploration on the path to accurate prediction for recurrent stricture after upper urinary tract reconstruction surgery. Source of Funding: None © 2023 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 209Issue Supplement 4April 2023Page: e567 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2023 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Wei Zuo More articles by this author Xinfei Li More articles by this author Zhihua Li More articles by this author Kunlin Yang More articles by this author Qi Tang More articles by this author Hongjian Zhu More articles by this author Peng Zhang More articles by this author Bing Wang More articles by this author Yaming Gu More articles by this author Yingzhi Diao More articles by this author Liqun Zhou More articles by this author Xuesong Li More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...