Monthly and seasonal hydrological drought forecasting using multiple extreme learning machine models

Abstract

ABSTRACT Hydrological drought forecasting is a key component in water resources modeling as it relates directly to water availability. It is crucial in managing and operating dams, which are constructed in rivers. In this study, multiple extreme learning machines (ELMs) are utilized to forecast hydrological drought. For this purpose, the standardized hydrological drought index (SHDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) are computed for 1 and 3 aggregated months. Two scenarios are considered, namely, using SHDI in previous months as the input, and using SHDI and SPI in previous months as the input. Considering these scenarios and two timescales (1 and 3 months), 12 input–output combinations are generated. Then, five different ELMs and support vector machine models are used to predict the SHDI on both timescales. For preprocessing of the data, the wavelet is hybridized with the models, leading to 144 different models. The results indicate that ELMs are capable of forecasting SHDI with high precision. The self-adaptive differential evolution ELM outperforms the other models and the wavelet has a highly positive effect on the model performance, especially in error reduction. In general, using ELMs in hydrological drought forecasting is promising and this model can feasibly be used for this purpose.