Modulating Norway spruce growth and resilience through thinning intensity under climate change conditions

Purpose. To determine promising directions for the development of the technical and technological foundations of soil cultivation in the conditions of climate change. Methods. Monographic, abstract-logical, graph-analytical, induction and deduction, regression analysis of results. Results. Modern soil cultivation technologies are considered, their advantages and disadvantages, development trends are defined. It has been established that climate change will significantly affect the terms of execution of works, the conditions of interaction of working bodies of technical means with the soil environment. The parabolic relationship between traction resistance and soil moisture means that climate change will increase fuel costs for tillage. Therefore, the further search for new technical and technological solutions should be aimed at reducing energy consumption and preventing physical degradation of soils, substantiating structural and functional schemes of technical means for soil cultivation, parameters of working bodies and modes of operation, under which the number of dust particles in the surface layer of the soil will be minimal. Conclusions. The main direction of the development of the technical and technological base for the production of plant products in the conditions of climate change is the harmonization of the interaction of the working bodies of tillage machines with the soil, which will ensure the reduction of physical soil degradation and energy consumption to create a favorable environment for plant development and crop formation. In the conditions of global climate change, agricultural production is being reoriented towards precision farming systems, therefore, crop production technologies should be based on targeted tillage with the simultaneous introduction of a full dose of mineral nutrition into the seed sowing area for the planned harvest, sowing of seeds and preservation of plant residues on the surface of the soil for protection it from overheating and loss of moisture. Keywords: technical means, soil cultivation technologies, interaction of working bodies with the soil, soil moisture, soil resistance, energy consumption, physical soil degradation.

Climate change impacts on the ecosystem services that people rely on, such as water, air, and agricultural products. The quality and quantity of various ecosystem services may be diminished under conditions of extreme climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change may be expected to threaten people's health and survival. The concept of health promotion includes attention to the environment and emphasizes balance between nature and manmade structures. In addition, health promotion practices and actions in response to climate change emphasize multidisciplinary cooperation and focus on health inequality and vulnerable populations. Therefore, health promotion professionals must have sufficient professional competence in order to manage the multifaceted health impacts of climate change. The purpose of this article is to review the literature on health promotion and emergency medical care under conditions of climate change. Examples are provided to delineate the biological, psychological, social, and spiritual effects of climate change. The results of this literature review may provide community-based health promotion and emergency medical services guidance for further development and improvements. Healthcare professionals are expected to play a central role in managing the impact of climate change in order to achieve health for all.

Forest thinning can be used as an adaptive measure to improve the growth and resistance of Norway spruce forests affected by climate change. The impact of different thinning intensities on sap flow, growth, and tree water deficit of 40-year-old Norway spruce was tested. High thinning intensity (–61% of basal area) resulted in increased tree-level sap flow compared to the control (+27%), but it caused a decrease in the stand-level transpiration (–34%) due to reduced leaf area index. Low-intensity thinning (–28% basal area), high-intensity thinning, and control showed similar responses of sap flow to vapour pressure deficit and global radiation, suggesting unchanged isohydric behaviour. Both low- and high-intensity treatments displayed greater radial growth than the control. There were no differences in tree water deficit between the treatments. The low-intensity treatment can be considered the best water utilisation treatment with increased growth and unchanged transpiration at the tree level. The high-intensity treatment had similar radial growth as the low-intensity but lower stand-level transpiration, implying improved soil water availability. The study expands the ecophysiological understanding of thinning as a valuable silvicultural practice for adapting forest management of Norway spruce to the effects of climate change.

Climate change has been occurring at a rapid rate and is being exacerbated by anthropogenic activities that increase global temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2. This greatly impacts ecosystems worldwide, resulting in more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as heat waves and drought. Understanding how ecosystems respond to elevated CO2 is critical for predicting the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes, such as their ability to sequester carbon. Temperate ecosystems, in particular, are important in mitigating climate change, holding around 20% of the global plant biomass and approximately 10% of the global terrestrial carbon (Bonan, 2008). However, the capacity of these ecosystems to continue sequestering additional carbon dioxide in the future is uncertain when predicted using current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). To address this, improved mechanistic representations of ecosystem states and processes under changing climatic conditions are crucial, as well as the initialisation of the models using real-world observations. In this regard, ecosystem-scale experiments, such as Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, are extremely useful and powerful tools for improving model predictions and have frequently been used for model-data synthesis and ecosystem analysis (Walker et al, 2015).  In this study, we examined the responses of mature temperate forests to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climatic conditions using the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2), which is a cohort-based terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). We parameterised the model with data collected from the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, Free-air CO2 Enrichment (BIFoR FACE) experiment site. As the first study using a TBM at BIFoR, this study analysed the model’s capacity to simulate ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 (+150 ppm above ambient) and extreme weather events such as the European drought of 2022 (Gharun et al, 2024). We ran two simulations and compared model outputs against field measurements of key eco-physiological measurements such as maximum rate of carboxylation, soil moisture, and Net Primary Production (NPP). This study demonstrates the capability and the limitations of the TBM to simulate the responses of a mature temperate forest to elevated CO2 conditions under changing and extreme climatic conditions.  

The five essays of this dissertation combine topics from development and environmental economics. All essays treat the overall topic on how to influence and regulate the production of CO2 emissions. The green house gas CO2 is one of the biggest externalities from human development during the last century. The essays give insight on how changes in local climate conditions affect human wellbeing and what are the potential monetary loses from a rise in average temperature in Latin America. They further analyze the major drivers of CO2 emissions at the household as well as national level and assess how current international climate policy has contributed to reduce CO2 emissions. The last essay gives an overview on how unequal emissions are globally distributed and what will be the future distribution of CO2 emissions when taking different policy scenarios into account. The first essay analyzes how changes in local climatic conditions affect the level of welfare in Latin America. Self reported wellbeing levels are used as a proxy for individual welfare. Subjective wellbeing does not only account for changes in individual income but also for changes in other areas, which determine overall welfare, such as the access to health care or schooling. The study finds that a temperature up to 22 degrees Celsius and rainfall up to 247mm are beneficial for human wellbeing. Higher temperatures or rainfall go in line with welfare loses. A global average warming of 2 degrees Celsius would go in line with welfare loses in Latin America. The second essay analyzes household emissions from consumption, the so-called carbon footprint, in India. The study focuses on the effect of changes in income and the socio- economic composition of the household. A higher household income leads to higher consumption but at the same time the goods, which are consumed change towards lower carbon intensive goods. Still the change in the consumption pattern does not offset the higher carbon footprint due to overall higher consumption rates with rising income. The third essay evaluates how current international climate policy did influence CO2 emissions. Countries with obligations from the Kyoto Protocol did indeed emit on average 6.5% less CO2 than comparable countries with similar income and population growth but without any commitments from Kyoto Protocol. The fourth essay analyzes the main determinant of rising CO2 emissions, namely income. The focus is not on changes in income but on changes in the income distribution within a country and its effect on CO2 emissions. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions per capita and income inequality is U-shaped: for countries characterized by high income inequality, reductions in income inequality are associated with lower per capita emissions. For less unequal societies, reductions in income inequality are associated with increases in carbon emissions per capita. The fifth essay studies the global distribution of per capita CO2 emissions. The focus is on the effect the energy mix and the sectoral composition have on emission inequality. The decline of heavy manufacturing in OECD countries and the rise of using coal in non- OECD countries led to a decline of global inequality in per capita CO2 emissions. In the long run there is the possibility that emission inequality will rise again. Each essay contributes to the literature in its specific field. They analyze how economic activities (mostly consumption) influence CO2 emissions, which are considered responsible for changes in climatic conditions. At the same time those changes in climatic conditions affect human wellbeing and go in line with monetary loses. National policies such as redistributive policies can have an influence on national CO2 emissions in both directions and have to be well planned. Policies to influence consumption habits towards less CO2 intensive goods could be efficient to regulate CO2 emissions but might only be feasible in richer countries. International climate policies have shown an impact on CO2 emissions among participating countries. International policies can help to get national policies to reduce CO2 emissions on the way.

Summary The effects of thinning intensity on the growth and yield of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) were investigated in long-term thinning experiments on mineral soil sites in southern Finland. The measurement period was on average 27 years, and the intensity of the thinnings from below ranged from heavy thinning (45 per cent of basal area removed) to no thinning. Total stem volume increment and merchantable volume produced per hectare were the highest on the unthinned plots, but light and moderate thinning ( 30 per cent removed) reduced the volume increment by about 10 per cent. However, a part of the total production of unthinned plots was lost through natural mortality. On the thinned plots, natural mortality was considerably lower compared with the unthinned plots. The average diameter increment of all the trees, as well as the diameter of the largest trees, clearly increased with increasing thinning intensity. In contrast, dominant height increment was not affected by thinning. The stand age at the time of establishment of the experiments had no major effect on the growth reactions after thinning. Thus, heavy thinning results in earlier thinning yields and a higher proportion of larger-sized stems at the expense of a somewhat lower total yield.

Evolution of environment of the Caspian Sea in the conditions of global climate changes is considered for two multi-scale temporary periods: the last climatic macrocycle (marine isotope stages, MIS, 5-2) and the Holocene (MIS 1). Both of them are characterized by considerable climatic changes. The Caspian Sea reacted to climatic events of MIS 5 epoch by the development of two transgressive basins - the warm-water Late Khazarian and moderately warm-water Hyrcanian basins. The Atelian regression was answered to the MIS 4 glacial stage and initial phases of interstadial warming MIS 3. The climatic conditions of the second half of interstadial warming were reflected by development of the first stage of the Khvalynian transgression. The transgressive trend of level was interrupted during an epoch of the maximum cold and dryness of MIS 2 stage. During an epoch of glacial degradation the development of Khvalynian transgression was resumed. Climatic events of late glacial epoch, the warming phases Bolling and Allered, got a response in development of the transgressive stage of the Khvalynian basin. Phases of a considerable cold snap (Oldest, Older and Yanger Dryas) were reflected by regressive stages in the history of the Khvalynian basin. The most considerable of them answered to the Yanger Dryas. Development of the Mangyshlakian regression is a response of the Caspian Sea to the continentalization of climate of the Boreal period of the Holocene. In development of the New Caspian transgression, the three transgressive stages are established. They are closely connected with regional climate changes. The composition of mollusks of the Caspian Sea represents the result of evolutionary processes in the Pleistocene faunae occurring in the conditions of climatic changes and transgressive and regressive rhythmics of the basin. The New Caspian (Holocene) complexes reflect the change of biotic conditions of the basin - the invasion of the Black Sea species. The invasiv species and acclimatizin species made much more essential changes to structure of the biodiversity, than it is caused by natural factors. The natural ecosystems underwent the anthropogenous transformation, turning the unique ecosystems of the Caspian Sea created for its Pleistocene history into similarity of the Azov-Black Sea ecosystems.

Climate change is one of the most important challenges of our time. It is likely to bring devastating impacts on human life and settlements. Climate change refers to changes in average climatic conditions of the earth due to the increase in average temperatures of the atmosphere (Figure 1). Although natural processes like solar activity and volcanic eruptions can cause changes in climatic conditions it is accepted that current climate change is caused by anthropogenic processes (Deri and Alam, 2008; IPCC, 2007a). There is a consensus that increased burning of fossil fuels and destruction of natural ecosystems, which were intensified after the industrial revolution (Figure 2), are major drivers of ongoing global warming and climate change (Costello et al., 2009).

The relevance of the researches carried out is determined by the fact that recently the world community of scientists has been paying great attention to environmental conservation, and the observed climate changes are mainly associated with global warming. One of the most important elements of the environment that can be changed is the hydrosphere, in particular the basins of mountain rivers, many of which are a source of replenishment of the Caspian Sea level. Along with natural factors affecting the condition of hydrogeological objects, anthropogenic pressure associated with human economic activity also has a huge impact. Given the importance of the issue under consideration, the purpose of our researches was to collect, process and analyze the geoecological state of the upper reaches of the high-altitude part of the Avar Koisu River basin under conditions of global climate change and increasing anthropogenic load. The methodology of the researches was based on the survey of landscapes and the conduct of engineering and geological geophysical studies of the high-altitude part of the Avar Koisu River basin. The analysis of the obtained results made it possible to assess the state of the landscapes of the high-altitude part of the river basin associated with climate change, and engineering-geological and engineering–geophysical data - to assess the impact of anthropogenic load on them.

The article analyzes the results of modeling the regulation of flood flow in a river basin by the flood control facility on a side tributary of the river under conditions of climatic changes. The use of geographic information system for assessing the impact of the flood control facilities on the environment when justifying their parameters is considered. The need to create anti-flood hydro systems on side tributaries exists because the water capacity of existing and projected hydro systems may not be enough to transform the flood in conditions of economic and climatic changes. The problem arises of determining the required water capacity of the flood control facility and its location considering environmental requirements.

Chapter 6 - Seed priming: state of the art and new perspectives in the era of climate change

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

The study of environmental risks in the agricultural industry in the conditions of global climate change remains relevant. The role of abiotic factors (air temperature and precipitation) in the formation of environmental risks in agrocenoses of agricultural crops is covered in the article. The influence of uncontrolled fluctuations of agroclimatic factors on agrocenoses, which cause environmental risks, is particularly hazardous. They are the main prerequisite for reducing the efficiency of agriculture. The aim of the work was to develop and substantiate the criteria for evaluating ecological risks in agrocenoses under the influence of abiotic agroclimatic factors in the conditions of climate change. The defined criteria provide an assessment of the ecological risks of loss of fertility and reduction of soil quality, deterioration of the phytosanitary condition of agrocenoses, and reduction of their productivity. Such criteria include indicators of the content of organic matter and the coefficient of soil dehumification, which indicate a decrease in the share of organic matter in the soil; agrochemical indicators that confirm the risks of loss of macro- and microelements, changes in soil pH; normative indicators of the content of pollutants, which determine the level of ecological risks of soil contamination with dangerous compounds of heavy metals, pesticides and radionuclides. The criteria that determine the phytosanitary state of agrocenoses, determine the indicators of weediness, plant diseases that lead to death or thinning, an increase in the number of species of harmful organisms, and an approximate economic threshold of the harmfulness of pests. It characterizes the degree of damage to crops and possible crop losses. Ecological risks of agrocenoses productivity loss are determined by criteria for assessing crop loss from major diseases and indicators of quality and safety of agricultural products. The use of the specified criteria will ensure the timely elimination of the environmental risks outlined in the article thanks to the implementation of appropriate agrotechnical preventive and protective measures, will guarantee the growth of the productivity of agrocenoses and the ecological safety of agroecosystems.

Predicting species responses to climate change has become a dynamic field in global change research. A crucial question in this debate is whether-or-not species have been and will be able to respond quickly enough to keep up with changing climatic conditions. Focusing on fossil pollen records and paleoclimatic simulations, this work assesses the change in realized climatic niches (climatic temporal trajectories) of 20 plant taxa over the last 16000 yr, and whether this tracking has been the same for different climatic niche dimensions. Climatic factors showed a consistent trend toward warmer temperatures and higher precipitation. Although the response types varied across taxa, species' realized climatic niches lagged in response to changes in climatic conditions. Temperature niches responded to late Pleistocene (16000-11000 yr ago) climate change, but did so at slower rates than changes in climatic conditions during the same period. In contrast, precipitation niches were relatively stable from 16000 to 11000 yr ago, but still lagged behind changes in climatic conditions. Changes in temperature and precipitation niches eventually stabilized during the Holocene (11000-1000 yr ago). These results underscore how the climatic niche realized at any one moment represents a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist, particularly during times of fast climatic change. Variability in the rates of temporal trajectories across evaluated climatic variables showed taxa specific responses to changes in climatic conditions over time and emphasizes the need to incorporate variation, intensity, and duration of lag effects in assessments of the possible effects of climatic change.

This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and their surrounding regions. The objectives were: 1) to determine whether significant changes in temperature and precipitation have occurred and, if so, to what extent; and 2) to establish whether there is a noticeable urban heat island effect in Stockholm and the medium-sized city of Rostock. Climatic trends were detected by linear regression and the MannKendall test. Different precipitation trends were detected over the whole period of observation. Average annual temperatures increased significantly in both case studies, particularly from the 1970s with highest trends in winter and lowest in autumn (Rostock) and summer (Stockholm). Although changes in temperature extremes were detected for both regions, no overall long-term trend for precipitation extremes was observed. The average temperature in the city of Rostock (Stockholm) was approximately 0.3˚C to 0.6˚C (1.2˚C) higher than in the surrounding rural areas had seasonal variations, with maxima in the warm season. The main outcomes were that significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature patterns, have been occurring in the case study regions since the 1980s, and that there is a considerable urban heat island effect in both Stockholm and Rostock. This could encourage urban planners to consider specific climatic conditions and small-scale climatic influences also in relatively small coastal urban conglomerates in mid latitudes which can follow from land use changes.