Models of the Current Technical Condition of Electrical Equipment for Calculating the Reliability of Power Supply Systems for Single-Users within the Framework of a Risk-Based Approach

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The article considers the result of simulation the values of the current technical condition of electrical equipment based on the developed mathematical models. The models are implemented through a software package. Before the simulation, 72 power supply circuits were analyzed, and it occurred that 50 supply circuits of responsible consumers are of the greatest interest for simulation. The simulated integral value of the current state varies depending on the amount of pieces of equipment being monitored. In the course of the study, for each of the circuits under consideration, a number of values were obtained that simulate the selective combination of the technical condition index, a hypothesis was also put forward that the distribution of the populations is normal, and the verification of the latter was carried out using the Pearson criterion. With an increase in the number of pieces of electrical equipment taken into account in the monitoring, the average value of the technical condition index decreases. This indicator provides a cumulative assessment of the technical condition of the entire power supply system being examined. Taking into account the technical condition index, the values of the probability of trouble-free operation of the power supply circuits of the relevant consumers in question have been obtained. The probability of trouble-free operation of the circuits of power supply systems under consideration decreases if the current technical condition of their elements is taken into account. The simulation and calculations results indicate the necessity of regularly monitoring the current technical condition of electrical equipment and regularly recalculating the values of reliability indicators for power supply circuits in order to make the most effective decision on putting electrical equipment into scheduled repair. In order to reduce the probability of failure of electrical equipment in power supply systems, regular technical condition assessments as well as scheduled maintenance and repair work are required, while in order to obtain a more accurate reliability assessment, additional information on the condition of the equipment should be involved, such as maintenance and repair data, as well as information about the defects detected. The data obtained in the article can be used to reduce the likelihood of equipment downtime, increase the frequency of maintenance and repair, and, as a result, reduce the negative effects of under-supply of electricity.