Abstract
The purpose of this work is to quantify key environmental impacts of electric vehicles deployment in the European Union. This is achieved by soft-linking three models (PRIMES-TREMOVE, DIONE and SHERPA) to explore a base and an alternative scenario. The alternative scenario draws on the assessment of the national policy frameworks for alternative fuels infrastructure requested by the Directive (2014/94/EU). Five environmental indicators are examined: tailpipe CO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions as well as NO2 and PM2.5 urban background concentrations. By 2030, car travel activity is simulated to generate ca. 425 MtCO2/year in the EU28 under the alternative scenario. Compared to the base scenario, electric vehicles contribute to a 3% reduction in tailpipe CO2 emissions. Only two countries attain CO2 emission reductions greater than 10% in the model. The need for a higher level of policy ambition towards the deployment of less polluting vehicles in Europe is highlighted as a conclusion.
Highlights
To meet its commitments in the context of the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that took place in Paris in 2015, the European Union (EU)1 aims at reducing its transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 60% between 1990 and 2050 [23, 26]
Whereas the base scenario drew on the PRIMES-TREMOVE output for an adapted version of the EU Reference Scenario 2016, the National Policy Frameworks (NPFs) scenario was the result of quantifying the effect of the Directive (2014/94/EU) on the European countries that communicated future electric vehicles (EVs) stock estimates in their NPFs
Due to the growth trend in car travel demand at the EU28 level projected in the EU Reference Scenario, in the base scenario the total reductions in CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2030 are lower (13%) than those that could be achieved on a per car basis (21%)
Summary
To meet its commitments in the context of the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that took place in Paris in 2015, the European Union (EU) aims at reducing its transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 60% between 1990 and 2050 [23, 26] (see Table 1). Since the European transport sector emitted 851 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq) in 1990 [17], this translates into a maximum value of 340 MtCO2eq in 2050. To pursue this goal, European legislation is in place. Cars account for 44.4% of total transport GHG emissions [17]. These vehicles are a contributor to air pollution, which is harmful to the ecosystem and human health. EEA [19] estimated that over 400,000 premature deaths in Europe in 2012 can be attributed to air pollution. EEA [15] claimed that 391, 000 and 76,000 premature deaths in 2015 are respectively attributable to PM2.5 and NO2 exposure in the EU28 (even if these impacts cannot be aggregated, as this may lead to double counting)
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