Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India

Abstract

BackgroundThe outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public health policy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the present study is to investigate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic in India. MethodsWe have applied compartment mathematical model susceptible-vaccination-infectious-removed (SVIR) with different range of vaccine efficacy scenarios and predicted the population to be covered for vaccination per day in India as well as state level was performed. ResultsThe model assumed that a vaccine has 100% efficacy, predicted that >5 million populace to be vaccinated per day to flatten the epidemic curve in India. Similarly, different vaccination mechanisms such as ‘all-or-nothing’ (AoN) and leaky vaccines does not have potential discordance in their effectiveness at higher efficacies (>70%). However, AoN vaccine was found to be marginally effective than leaky at lower efficacies (<70%) when administered at the higher coverage strategies. Further state level analyses were performed and it was found that 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 and 1 million vaccinations required per day in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Maharashtra as it assumes that the vaccine efficacy is 70%. ConclusionThe proposed modelling approach shows a range of assumptions on the efficacy of vaccine which helps the health authorities to prioritize the vaccination strategies to prevent the transmission as well as disease.