Modelling procedures for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects under the conditions of risk and uncertainty

Abstract

While considering the current state of innovative projects, it is expedient to take into account the risk factor which makes it possible to adapt to the market environment. Due to high risks ways should be sought to minimize them. The research paper presents such methods of minimizing risks, namely: risk-sharing between project participants; carrying out insurance of projects; reserving funds for contingent expenses. With regard to characteristics of particular industry, the scheme for classification of innovative risks is proposed. It is pointed out that the distinguishing feature of innovation risks is that they are determined for each stage of the product innovation life cycle from the perspective of scientific, technological and commercial success. And then, the integral or, in other words, overall risk is determined. It is noted that in order to adequately assess the effectiveness of the project, it is necessary to have sufficient information to form a reasonable hypotheses about the probable distribution of the key parameters of the project. In such cases, the missing data is replaced by the values obtained in the process of determining the integral risk. The identification of integral risks is especially effective in cases where the processes under consideration are too complex, have a random (stochastic) nature or cannot be studied under real conditions. The simplest integral models are often used to generate source data that has some permissible properties. It is argued that in order to obtain the most accurate results it is expedient to use the method of problem-thematic (innovative) forecasting, since it will make it possible to take full account of all interconnections between the initial indicators of the project. The proposed procedures for assessing the effectiveness and risk management can be used by industrial enterprises that carry out risk management in order to avoid a crisis in an uncertain market environment. It is proved that in order to perform the procedures for assessing the effectiveness of innovative projects, it is necessary to follow five stages: to establish the relationships between initial and base indicators in the form of a mathematical equation or inequality; to set laws of probability distribution for key parameters of the model; to carry out computer simulation of knowledge of the key parameters of the model; to calculate the basic characteristics of probability distribution of initial and output indicators; to analyze the results and make decisions.