Abstract
This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non-linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well-known earthquake data and the consequences of mis-specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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